Running head: POPULATION ANALYSIS

Population Analysis
Bobbie Chahal
California State University, Stanislaus

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2
Population Analysis
Location

Boundary of Community
The community being analyzed is located in the 95351 zip code in West Modesto,
California. The Parent Resource Centers serves Stanislaus County families living in this zip
code by providing education, guidance, and resources to empower and strengthen the families
and therefore, will be used as the epicenter when discussing the community (Parent Resource
Center, n.d.a). The boundaries of the community are the streets: Carpenter Road, Hatch Road, 6th
Street, 9th Street and River Road (HealthyCity, n.d.a). Carpenter Road forms the western border
of the community while Hatch Road forms the southern border. 9th Street, 6th Street, and River Road
form the Northwestern border of the community (HealthyCity, n.d.a). The community is a small
part of the Stanislaus County (HealthyCity, n.d.a). Highways like Interstate 5, California State
Route 99, California State Route 132 and Interstate 580 also provide boundaries and traveling
routes to the city (HealthyCity, n.d.a). This zip code surrounds Highway 99 (HealthyCity, n.d.a).
Location of Health Services
The communitys access to health services is made possible by the Stanislaus County
Health Services Agency, Paradise Medical Office, and Community Services Agency. Stanislaus
County Health Services Agency is 1.56 miles away from the Parent Resource Center (Mapquest,
n.d.). This facility is conveniently located within the community. Paradise Medical Center is
1.30 miles away from the Parent Resource Center (Mapquest, n.d.). In other words, Paradise
Medical Center is located inside the community. The Community Services Agency is 3.77 miles
from the Parent Resource Center (Mapquest, n.d.). This health services facility is the furthest
away from the community out of the health services agencies in this community. The Stanislaus
County Health Services Agency provides health services to the Stanislaus county community
(Stanworks, n.d.). The Paradise Medical Office provides health services like immunizations and

POPULATION ANALYSIS

also has a family planning program for teens (Health Services Agency, n.d.b). The Community
Health Agency links the community with low-income targeted programs like Calfresh and MediCal (Health Services Agency, n.d.a). Some necessary health institutions outside of this
community are the Madera Childrens Hospital which is 91.16 miles from the community in
Madera, California (Mapquest, n.d.). Valley Childrens Merced hospital which is 38.81 miles
from the community in Merced, California (Mapquest, n.d.). Doctors Medical Center is the
closest hospital available to the 95351 zip code with a distance of 2.8 miles (Mapquest, n.d.).
Geographic Features
There are several major water bodies in the Stanislaus County. The Tuolumne River,
Delta Mendota Canal, San Joaquin River, and Turlock Lake are key geographic features of the
Stanislaus County (Stanislaus County, n.d.b). Because California has hot weather, strong winds,
and dry conditions, there is an increased risk of wildfires as these factors also increase
(California Department of Public Health, 2012). Because California is a coastal region, there is a
risk of sea level rise in the next few decades due to melting glaciers and ice sheets (California
Department of Public Health, 2012). As a result, sea levels will begin to take over land that is
home to Californias coastal population (California Department of Public Health, 2012). There
is a predicted five foot rise in sea level that could potentially put half a million California
residents losing their homes (California Department of Public Health, 2012). These water bodies
create opportunities for healthful activities because many parks are located around them. Las
Palmas is a park that allows for fishing, swimming, barbecues, canoe activities, and picnics by
the San Joaquin River (Stanislaus County, n.d.b). The Basso Bridge is a part of La Grange Park
and allows for access to the Tuolumne River with healthful opportunities like swimming,
barbecues, boating, hiking trails, picnic, and fishing (Stanislaus County, n.d.b). There are also

POPULATION ANALYSIS

many parks in the County. Laird Park is a ninety-seven acres in size and has been designed with
picnic shelters, baseball, softball fields, informal play areas, barbecues, and even river access
(Stanislaus County, n.d.a). Riverdale Park is a three acre park that has a path for boating access
to the Tuolumne River, play equipment, walking trails, picnic tables, and informal play areas
(Stanislaus County, n.d.a).
Climate
Modestos average temperature is 63.75 degrees Fahrenheit (The Weather Channel, n.d.).
The hottest temperature of Modesto on average is in the month of July at 95 degrees Fahrenheit
(The Weather Channel, n.d.). The two coldest months on average of Modesto are January and
December at 40 degrees Fahrenheit (The Weather Channel, n.d.). The highest recorded
temperature in Modesto was at 115 degrees Fahrenheit in 2006 (The Weather Channel, n.d.).
The lowest temperature recorded in Modesto was at 18 degrees Fahrenheit in the year 1949 (The
Weather Channel, n.d.). There were 1.10 inches of precipitation on average for Modesto for the
year (The Weather Channel, n.d.). The most precipitation occurs in January (The Weather
Channel, n.d.). Wildfires, floods, droughts, sea level rise, and air pollution are climatic features
that affect health and fitness California Department of Public Health, 2012). The Health
Services Agency of Modesto has an emergency preparedness program that coordinates a
community emergency response team, helps guide the public to come up with disaster plan,
ensures care sites, and also has a syndrome surveillance program in place as some of the many
responsibilities (Health Services Agency, n.d.c).
Flora and Fauna
Many plants and spiders in the California pose possible threats to health. Blue Gum
Eucalyptus is one such plant that can cause declines in the native plant and animal populations.

POPULATION ANALYSIS

Fire departments warn communities against using this plant because it has flammable properties
(California Invasive Plant Council, n.d.). The Black Locust is another plant that is toxic to
humans and wildlife (California Invasive Plant Council, n.d.). According to Ethan, a member of
the Madera Poison Control Centers team, the brown recluse spider and the black widow are two
spiders that are the most common poisonous spiders encountered in California (Ethan, personal
communication, March 10, 2014).
Human-Made Environment
The Modesto labor force of 2010 was largely employed by the following industries:
transportation, warehousing, utilities, construction, manufacturing, management, wholesale
trade, professional, scientific, and administrative (California Employment Department, 2010).
The quality of housing is poor in this community because there are piles of trash surrounding
neighborhoods and the yards and houses themselves are unkempt and appear to be falling apart
as witnessed during the Windshield Survey. According to the American Lung Association (n.d.),
Modesto is the 6th most polluted city when ranked based on the year round particle pollution.
Highway 99 allows access to the health institutions of the community (HealthyCity, n.d.a).
Population
Size
According to the 2010 Census Bureau, the population of the 95351 zip code community
was 46,458 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2014). The population of the urban (City of Modesto, n.d.)
city of Modesto as of 2010 was 201,165 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2014).
Density
The population density of the 95351 population is 5,088.62 per square mile (World Media
Group, 2014d). Modesto has the density population of 5423.37 per square mile (World Media
Group, 2014b). California has a population density of 227.58 (World Media Group, 2014a).

POPULATION ANALYSIS

Composition
There is a diverse age composition in the community of the 95351 zip code. 25 to 34 year
olds make up the biggest group in the city with the percentage of 14.51%. 35 to 44 year olds are
the second largest group with 12.67% (World Media Group, 2014d). 74-84 year olds make up the
smallest group in the community with the percentage of 2.43% (World Media Group, 2014d).
Clearly, the young adult and middle aged population makes up the largest segment of the
population. Newborns to 5 year olds compose 9.45% of the population (World Media Group,
2014d). Five to nine year olds compose 9.35% of the population (World Media Group, 2014d).
10 to 14 year olds make up 8.92% of the community (World Media Group, 2014d). 15 to 19 year
olds compose 9.22% of the population (World Media Group, 2014d). Lastly, 20 to 24 year olds
compose 8.13% of the communitys population (World Media Group, 2014d). The 95351
communitys population is 50.46% male and 49.54% female (World Media Group, 2014d). The
marital statistics amongst the communitys genders are quite similar. Amongst the males that are
15 years old and over, 49.75% are married while 8.03% are divorced (World Media Group,
2014d). Amongst the females that are 15 years and over, 48.09% are married while 10.60% are
divorced (World Media Group, 2014d).
The 95351 zip code community is diverse in the kind of careers the members of the
community have. The majority of the population works under management/professional
occupations with 59.79% males belonging under this occupation type and 40.21% of females
falling in this category (World Media Group, 2014c). California also has the biggest population
falling in the management/professional occupations with 53.97% of the male population and
39.53% of females working in these types of occupations (World Media Group, 2014a). 28.58%
of the male population of this community holds jobs under production/transportation/material

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moving occupations (World Media Group, 2014a) while 15.46% of Californias males work
under this type of occupation (World Media Group, 2014a). 17.18% of the male population
holds jobs under service occupations (World Media Group, 2014a) while 14.76% of Californias
males have careers under the same category (World Media Group, 2014a). 14.95% of the male
population holds jobs under sales and office occupations (World Media Group, 2014a) while
17.65% of Californias males work under the same category (World Media Group, 2014a). The
rest of the jobs of the males in this community fall under farming, fishing, forestry, construction,
extraction, maintenance, and repairmen (World Media Group, 2014a).
In the 95351 zip code community, the largest percentage of females work in the sales and
office occupations with 29.15% (World Media Group, 2014c) of females falling in this category
while 32.22% (World Media Group, 2014c) of Californias females work in these types of
occupations. The second largest percentage of females work in service occupations with 28.25%
(World Media Group, 2014c) being in the category while 21.35% (World Media Group, 2014c)
of Californias females work in the same category. 19.54% (World Media Group, 2014c) of the
communitys females work in production, transportation, and material occupations while only
5.56% (World Media Group, 2014a) of Californias females work in the same category of
occupations. Even though there were 59.79% (World Media Group, 2014c) of men working
under management and professional occupations, only 15.24% (World Media Group, 2014c) of
females have careers under this category. The rest of the jobs women of the community hold fall
under construction, extraction, maintenance, repairmen, and fishing (World Media Group,
2014c).
Rate of Growth or Decline

POPULATION ANALYSIS

Since the year 2000, the 95351 zip code communitys population has declined by 2.26%
(World Media Group, 2014d) while Californias population has grown by 9.99% (World Media
Group, 2014a). There are many diseases that are prevalent amongst the Stanislaus County and
this might be an indicator of the poor health of the community. Heart disease and Cancer caused
the largest number of deaths in the Stanislaus County in 2011 (Stanislaus County Health Services
Agency, 2011). These causes were higher than unintentional injuries, diabetes, homicides, and
strokes (Stanislaus County Health Services Agency, 2011). The prevalence of heart disease and
cancer related deaths might be an indicator towards poorly management, inadequate disease
prevention education, or even environmental factors contributing to the decline in the population
(Stanislaus County Health Services Agency, 2011).
Cultural Differences
This zip code contains a diverse ethnic population with Hispanics (66.60%) being the
most prominent of the ethnic groups (HealthyCity, n.d.b). Caucasians (48.61%) are the second
largest group in the region (HealthyCity, n.d.b). Asian Americans (6.71%) and African
Americans (3.74%) are the groups that are ethnicities that are common in the area as well
(HealthyCity, n.d.b). The subgroups that are the most common in the community are Mexicans
because they make up 91.75% of the Hispanic population (HealthyCity, n.d.b). Asian Indians are
the largest group of Asians present in the community with 13.12% of them making up the Asian
population (HealthyCity, n.d.b).
African Americans are unique in that they are at greater risk for high blood pressure and
heart disease (American Heart Association, 2012). Researchers propose that this specific group
might have a gene that makes it more salt sensitive, which increases the risk of being diagnosed
with high blood pressure (American Heart Association, 2012). Another group that also has

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unique needs is the Hispanic group. Research shows that Hispanics get Diabetes at younger ages
when compared to non-Hispanic Caucasians (Centers of Disease Control & Prevention, 2013).
California actually has the highest rate of the disease in young Hispanics (Centers of Disease
Control & Prevention, 2013). While non-Hispanic adults in the age group of 18-44 years had
1.3% diagnosed with Diabetes, Hispanics of the same age group had 3.2% diagnosed with
Diabetes (Centers of Disease Control & Prevention, 2013). This difference might be due to
problems in accessing care, environment factors, cultural factors, and even genetics (Centers of
Disease Control & Prevention, 2013).
At the Parent Resource Center, first time mothers, families at risk for abuse, and people
seeking to get their GED are included in health planning (Parent Resource Center, n.d.b).
Social Class
The Stanislaus County has a varying population for each income level. As of 2007, only
2.5% of the Countys population has the highest income level of $200,000 or above per year
(Stanislaus County Health Services Agency/Public Health, 2008). 5.6% of the population has the
lowest income level of less than $10,000 per year (Stanislaus County Health Services
Agency/Public Health, 2008). In total, 69.3% of the population has an annual income of $74,000
or less (Stanislaus County Health Services Agency/Public Health, 2008). California follows the
same trend with 60.4% of the population making less than $74,000 per year and having a very
small percentage of the population making the most money with 6.2% of the population making
more than $200,000 per year (Stanislaus County Health Services Agency/Public Health, 2008).
Clearly, the majority of the population falls under $74,000 while there is only a small percentage
of people making the top level of money (Stanislaus County Health Services Agency/Public
Health, 2008). This difference in income levels suggests the majority of people probably have

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10

trouble finding safe housing in safe neighborhoods, accessing healthcare, and are most like under
stress related to the limited financial status as discussed in the movie, Inequality for All
(Kornbluth, 2013).
Mobility
In California, there were 15,659,090 movers (U.S. Census Bureau, 2003) in five years of
time while in the Stanislaus County, there were 202, 493 movers in the five year time period
(U.S. Census Bureau, 2003). In California, there were 12,802,468 people that moved within the
state while in Stanislaus County, there were 128,082 people that moved within the county (U.S.
Census Bureau, 2003).
Farm workers are the group in the United States that have one of the highest rates of
migration (National Center for Farmworker Health, 2012). Amongst this group, 42% of the
workers are identified as frequent migrators while 58% of them move according to the seasonal
agriculture job availability (National Center for Farmworker Health, 2012). As a result of the
frequent moving of this group, the farm workers have trouble with lack of income, low literacy
levels, which then result in language and cultural barriers, which then further hurt this group with
lack of access to healthcare and social services (National Center for Farmworker Health, 2012).
The United States has passed legislation to protect this group. Amongst these Acts are: The Fair
Labor Standards Act, Migrant and Seasonal Agricultural Worker Protection Act, Occupational
Safety and Health Act (National Center for Farmworker Health, 2012).
Poverty Level
34.33% of the community in the 95351 zip code are living below poverty level compared
to Modestos poverty level at 19.55% (World Media Group, 2014c). In the Stanislaus County,
63.9% of the children are eligible for free lunch at school while in California, 57.5% of the

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11

children qualify for the free lunch (Lucile Packard Foundation for Childrens Health, 2012).
Education Level
In the 95351 zip code, 43.60% of the population has less than high school education for
those that are 25 years and over (World Media Group, 2014c). In Modesto, 19.98% of the
population of 25 year olds and older have less than high school education (World Media Group,
2014c). 21% of the population in the Stanislaus County lack basic prose literacy skills while
there are 23% people in California who lack basic prose literacy skills (National Center for
Education Statistics, 2003).
Unemployment Rate
As of December 2013, the unemployment rate in Modesto was at 12.2% (United States
Department of Labor, n.d.). The rates seem to climb higher during the winter months while
being low in the summertime. From July 2013 to September 2013, the rate went from 12.9 to
11.0 (United States Department of Labor, n.d.). At October 2013, the unemployment rate was at
11.6% and climbed to 12.2% in December 2013 (United States Department of Labor, n.d.). The
unemployment rate of California as of December 2013 was at 8.4% (United States Department
of Labor, n.d.). The states unemployment rate remains stable and actually decreases during the
winter months (United States Department of Labor, n.d.). For example, in July 2013, the rate
was 9.0 and then continued to decrease to 8.4 by the wintertime in December 2013 (United
States Department of Labor, n.d.).
Population by Age
For California, the age dependency ratio was 61.1% in 2000, then decreased to 57.1% in
2010 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2012). In the U.S., the age dependency ratio was at 61.6% in 2000
and then decreased to 58.9% in 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2012). The age dependency ratio is

POPULATION ANALYSIS
derived by dividing the combined under 18 and 65-and-over populations by the 18 to 64
population and multiplying by 100 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2012). The rate has decreased by 4%
in California while decreasing by 2.7% in the U.S (U.S. Census Bureau, 2012). These are not
dramatic changes.
Health Status

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13

As of 2010, Californias obesity rate was at 20% (Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, 2012). While 35.7% of the U.S. was considered obese (Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, 2013d). In children between the ages of 19 to 35 months, there were
85% who received Diptheria, Tetanus, and Pertussis shots (Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, 2013a). 94% of this age group received the Polio vaccine (Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, 2013a). 92% of them received the Mumps, Measles, and Rubella
vaccination (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2013a). 80% of them received the
Haemophilus influenza vaccine (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2013a). 91% of
them received the Varicella vaccine (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2013a).
84% of them received the Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, 2013a). In adults (18 years and over), 37.9% were immunized with the influenza
vaccine in 2011 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2012b). Among those in the
U.S. of the ages of 18 years and over, 37.9% in 2011 were immunized with the influenza
vaccine (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2012b). In 2012, there were 557.1
murders, rapes, and assaults out of a total of 100,000 different types of crimes in Modesto
(World Media Group, 2014a). In California, there were 274.5 murders, rapes, and assaults out
of a total of 100,000 crimes in 2012 (World Media Group, 2014a).
By 2009, there were approximately 1,148,200 people of 13 years of age and older living
with HIV in the U.S. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2013b). By 2008, there were
110 million total sexually transmitted infections in the United States (Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention, 2013c). Among the 18 year old and over population in the United States, 20.1%
of the males and 14.5% of the females were cigarette smokers in 2012 (Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, 2014).

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14

Environmental Health Status

In the Stanislaus County, from 2003 to 2007, there was an increase of communicable
diseases by 20.2% (Stanislaus County Health Services Agency/Public Health, 2008). There were
2,409 cases in 2003 and then 2,895 in 2007 (Stanislaus County Health Services Agency/Public
Health, 2008). Among chronic diseases, high blood pressure, diabetes, and asthma are the most
common (Stanislaus County Health Services Agency/Public Health, 2008). As of 2005,
Stanislaus County had 11.9% of adults that had asthma while California had 12.7% (Stanislaus
County Health Services Agency/Public Health, 2008). As of 2005, 23.1% of Stanislaus County
adults had high blood pressure while California had 24.8% of its population diagnosed with high
blood pressure (Stanislaus County Health Services Agency/Public Health, 2008). In the same
year, there were 9.5% of adults in the Stanislaus County diagnosed with Diabetes while 7.0% in
California (Stanislaus County Health Services Agency/Public Health, 2008).
The Toxics Release Inventorys objective is to maintain surveillance of specific toxic
chemicals that could be harmful to humans and the environment (United States Environmental
Protection Agency, 2014). Companies in the U.S. are required to report how much of the
chemicals are disposed of into the environment, or how the chemicals are being recycled (United
States Environmental Protection Agency, 2014). All of the data gathered then goes into the
Toxics Release Inventory (United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2014).
After analysis of the community, there appears to be a problem of poverty present in the
community. With 34.33% of the community in the 95351 zip code living below poverty level
compared to Modestos poverty level at 19.55% (World Media Group, 2014c), there might be a
relationship between low financial income and increased risk for chronic diseases or ineffective
management of pre-existing conditions. This population is at risk for health decline related to

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15

the prevalence of poverty and low education levels (43.60% of the population has less than high
school education in people over 25 years of age) as evidenced by a 20.2% (Stanislaus County
Health Services Agency/Public Health, 2008) increase in the prevalence of communicable
diseases and the decline of the population by 2.26% since the year 2000 (World Media Group,
2014d).

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Heart Association. Retrieved from
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California Department of Public Health. (2012). Climate change, the environment, and health.
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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2013b). HIV/AIDS: statistics overview. Retrieved

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from http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/statistics/basics/
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HealthyCity. (n.d.b). Demographics: Race/Ethnicity. Advancement Project. Retrieved from:
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& Families Commission. Retrieved from http://www.prcfamilies.org/

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Parent Resource Center. (n.d.b). Parent resource center: on-site parenting education classes.
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Inventory. United States Environmental Protection Agency. Retrieved from
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