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Team members :
PIZEPAN Marie
GADAUD Elise
ASKAR Omar
SANZ RAMOS Marcos
TACCONE Florent
TAY XinYing
SAUVAGE Csar
Introduction:
The aim of this part is to understand what is the cause of the 1994 flood. we can make two
hypothesis : in 1994 the rainfall was important or the flood wasnt created by the volume of
rainfall but by the runoff.
Date
1990
1974
1992
1995
1989
1998
1975
1999
1986
1987
1997
1985
1976
2000
1988
1991
1996
1993
1994
flow max/
year
84,9
164
190
193
207
219
223
248
351
352
459
481
530
652
714
778
916
1050
1460
Tableau 1 : Max discharge of each year from 1974 to 1976 and 1985 to 2000
xo , the mode :
With
We obtain:
average
standard deviation gradex(g) mode (
)
487,99
362,7246131 282,925198 324,746897
Tableau 2 : Table of parameter of Gumbel method for the discharge
After we calculate the return period of the daily flow max of 1994. The flow max is : 1460m/s.
We calculated the gumbel variable :
)))= 0,98207548
55,7894941.
Figure 1 : Map representing the three gauges station to calculate the return period.
For Tende, we have the rainfall of 1950 at 1995, for St dalmas we have of 1931 at 1995 and st
sauveur 1931 at 1995.
We had the possibility to use the rainfall of Nice, but according to us this was unnecessary
because it was the location of the flood and so the rainfall of Nice is not the major reason of the
flood. Indeed, it was the rainfall and the runoff in upstream of the Var catchment which created
an increase of its water level. The rainfall of Nice accentuate the phenomenon of flooding.
We know that the flood occurred on the 5th of November 1994 with the maximum
discharges.With the files: st dalmas le selvage 1931_1995.xls, st sauveur_tinee 1932-1995.xls
and tende st dalmas 1950_1995.xls, we have sorted the datas taking the max rainfall for each
With this study we can see that the max rainfall which has fallen in 1994 is not an extreme
rainfall. Because the return period are between 3 and 8 years. So, its not the height of rainfall
which has caused the flood.
For October :
For St Sauveur:
For September:
For October:
For st Tende :
For September:
For October:
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The rainfall of September is less important than some other rainfalls of septembers from other
gauges stations.
Conclusion
In September, the accumulation of rainfall is significant of 33 at 107 years. For October, the
rainfall is less important with return period around 2 years.
With this study, we can ask ourselves if the strong rainfall of September have saturated the soil,
the rainfall of October has maintained the saturation of the soil, and the runoff increasing is
caused by this saturation. Finally, it creates the flood at the beginning of November.
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