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NuclearWeaponsAsAThreatToGlobalPeace

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NuclearWeaponsAsAThreatToGlobalPeace
AddressbyProfessorGarethEvans,CoChairoftheInternationalCommissiononNuclearNonProliferationandDisarmament,
President Emeritus of the International Crisis Group and former Foreign Minister of Australia, to the UNI Global Union 3rd
WorldConference,Nagasaki,Japan,11November
MeetinghereinNagasakiremindsusforcefully,andmovingly,ofsomethingtheworldspolicymakersseemtohaveforgotten.
Talkingpasteachotheratendlessinternationalconferences,playingtheirpoliticalgames,dancingtheirdiplomaticminuets,
theworldspoliticalleadersneedtobestarklyreminded,aswehavebeenbyourpresencehere,thatnucleardisarmament
andnonproliferationisnotjustanotherdifficultsecuritypolicyissuebutoneinaclassallofitsown,andwithagravityand
urgencyallofitsown.
Nuclear weapons are, simply, the most indiscriminately inhumane weapons ever invented, and the only ones capable of
destroyinglifeonthisplanetasweknowit.Thereisonlyoneotherglobalpolicyissueremotelycomparableintermsofits
impactonplanetarysurvivability,andthatisclimatechange:butnuclearbombscankillusalotfasterthanCO2.
Alotofpeople,asweallknow,arestillhardtopersuadeaboutallthis.Its65years,afterall,isntit,theysay,sinceanyone
wasactuallykilledbyanuclearweapon?TheColdWar,withallitstensionsanddangers,hasbeenoverfortwentyyears,
hasnt it? Yes, North Korea and Iran seem a bit troubling, but doomsayers have been crying disaster about one threat or
anothernowfordecades,haventthey,withnothingeverhappeninglikethatboyinthatoldstorywhokeptcryingwolf
untilthevillagersstoppedrushingtohisrescue?Isntthisallyesterdaysproblem,nottodays?
Buttoomanypeopleseemtohaveforgottenthattheboywhocriedwolfdidactuallyendupgettingeaten.Therealtruthof
thematteristhatitisnotstatesmanship,orgoodprofessionalmanagement,oranythinginherentlystableabouttheworlds
nuclearweaponssystemsthathasletussurvivesolongwithoutcatastrophe,butrathersheerdumbluck.Itsimplycannot
beassumedthatluckwillcontinueindefinitely.Thethreatswefacearereal,immediateandimmense.Confrontingthemnow
isnotamatterofchoicebutnecessity.
Threatnumberonecomesfromtheexistingstockpile.Despitebigreductionswhichoccurredimmediatelyaftertheendofthe
Cold War there are at least 23,000 nuclear warheads still in existence, with a combined destructive capability of around
150,000HiroshimaorNagasakisizedbombs.Over9,000ofthemareinthehandsoftheUS,around13,000with Russia,
andaround1,000with the other nucleararmed states combined (China, France, UK, India, Pakistan, Israel and at the
margin North Korea). More than a third of all these weapons over 7,000 remain operationally deployed. And, most
extraordinarilyofall,over2,000oftheUSandRussianweaponsremainondangerouslyhighalert,readytobelaunchedon
warningintheeventofaperceivedattack,withinadecisionwindowforeachPresidentoffourtoeightminutes.
Wehavebeenclosertocatastropheinthepastthanmostpeopleknow.DuringtheCubanmissilecrisisweescapedWorld
WarIIIonthe21voteofthethreeseniorofficersofaRussiansubmarine:losingcommunicationswithMoscowaftercoming
tooclosetoadepthchargefromaUSshipblockadingCubanwaters,andnotknowingwhetherwarhadbrokenoutornot,
thecommanderhadtodecidewhethertolaunchhisnucleartorpedoornotand,overwhelmedbytheresponsibility,putit
to a vote! Over the years, communications satellite launches have been mistaken for nuclear missile launches
demonstrationtapesofincomingmissileshavebeenconfusedfortherealthingtechnicalglitcheshavetriggeredrealtime
alertslivenuclearweaponshavebeenflownbymistakearoundtheUSwithoutanyonenoticinguntiltheplanereturnedto
base.
Abouttheonlyconsolationfromthiscomedyoferrors,ifanythingsoseriouscanbecalledacomedy,isthatwelearnedafew
weeksagothatBillClinton,forseveralmonthsofhispresidency,completelymislaidthenuclearcodeshewassupposedto
carryinhispocketatalltimeswhichmeansthatduringthatperiodaUSretaliatorynuclearstrikecouldnotinfacthave
beenauthorisedevenhadanyonewantedto!
GivenwhatwenowknowabouthowmanytimestheverysophisticatedcommandandcontrolsystemsoftheColdWaryears
were strained by mistakes and false alarms, human error and human idiocy given what we know about how much less
sophisticatedarethecommandandcontrolsystemsofsomeofthenewernucleararmedstatesandgivenwhatweboth
knowandcanguessabouthowmuchmoresophisticatedandcapablecyberoffencewillbeofovercomingcyberdefence in
theyearsahead,itisutterlywishfulthinkingtobelievethatourColdWarluckcancontinueinperpetuity.Solongasany
nuclearweaponsremainanywhere,theyareboundonedaytobeusedifnotbydesign,thenbymistakeormiscalculation.
Threatnumbertwoisproliferationnewstatesaddingnewstockpiles,withalltherisksofdeliberateorinadvertentusethat
come with them. So long as any state retains nuclear weapons, others will want them, for reasons that may be
wrongheadedbuthavetheirownforce:maybetobuyperceivedequivalentprestigeinthecaseofrelativelystrongpowersor
totrytobuyimmunityfromattackinthecaseofweakones.India,PakistanandIsraelhavealreadyjoinedthefiveoriginal
nuclearpowers.NorthKoreahasthumbeditsnoseattheNPT,andnowhasfiveorsixnuclearexplosivedevices.Iranmayor
maynotbepreparingtofollowsuitifitdoes,othersintheregionareboundtojoinin.Thecascadeofproliferationwhich

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NuclearWeaponsAsAThreatToGlobalPeace
hasbeenfearedsincethe1960smaynotnowbefaraway.
Addtoallthatnowrisknumberthree:ofterroristactorsgettingtheirhandsonanuclearweaponorthemakingsofone.We
cannolongerbeunderanyillusionsabouttheintentofcertainmessianicgroupstocausedestructiononamassivescale.
And although the probability is small, and probably lower than some alarmist accounts have suggested their capacity
shouldnotbeunderestimatedtoput together a Hiroshimasized nuclear device, using manageable technology long in the
publicdomainandbackchannelsourcingofthekindtheAQKhannetworktaughtustobealarmedabout,andexplodeit
fromtheinsideofadeliverytruckinTrafalgarSquare,orTimesSquareorFederationSquareorasmallboatinNewYork
harbourorontheThamescausingineachcasehundredsofthousandsofdeathsandinjuries.
The fourth and last threat is associated with the likely rapid expansion of civil nuclear energy in the decades ahead, in
responsenotleasttotheneedfornonfossilfuelcontributionstobaseloadelectricitygeneration.Maybetherewillbealess
dramaticexpansionthanthedoublingpluswithintwentyyearsthatwasoriginallywidelypredicted,butitwillbesignificant,
anumberofnewcountrieswillwanttotakeupthisoption.Theproblem,isnotsomuchwiththepowergeneratingplants
themselves, but new uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing facilities such countries may be tempted to build: so
calledbombstarterkitsofthekindthathavecausedsomuchanxietyinNorthKoreaandIran.
Thereisonlyoneanswertoallthesethreats:stoppingthefurtherspreadofnuclearweaponsonceandforall,andreducing
theexistingstockpilestozero,startingnow.Weknowhowthiscanbedone:averydetailedandcomprehensiveroadmap,
with challenging but not unrealistic short, medium and long term agendas addressing all the different threats I have
mentioned, has been published last year by the International Commission on Nuclear NonProliferation and Disarmament
(ICNND)whichIcochairedwithformerJapaneseForeignMinisterYorikoKawaguchi.
Whatremainsindoubtiswhetherwhatneedstobedonewillactuallybedone.Hopeshavebeenhighformostofthelast
twoyears,followingtheelectionofaUSpresidentatlasttotallycommittedtotheultimateachievementofanuclearweapon
freeworld.Andsomegoodthingshavebeendoneduringthatperiod,includingasuccessfulsummitonthecrucialissueof
securing nuclear weapons and materials from misuse, a successful initial USRussia arms reduction negotiation, and a
NuclearNonProliferationTreatyReviewConferencethatdidnotcollapseindisarrayastheoneheldfiveyearsearlierdid.But
President Obamas domestic star has been fading, and real doubts have arisen about his capacity to deliver the inspiring
agendahespeltoutinPraguelastyear,andthewillingnessofotherstofollow.
Weare,Ibelieve,backatarealwatershed.Unlessoverthenexttwoyearsthekeyplayersintheinternationalcommunity,
andtherearemanythatmatterinthiscontext,notjusttheUSandRussia,getreallyseriousaboutmovingforwardonthe
multiple critical agenda issues that face us across the whole spectrum of nonproliferation and disarmament challenges,
thereisaveryrealdangerthatanyremainingmomentumforchangewillstallcompletelythatthewholeprojectwillfall
apart,andthatwewillbecondemnedtolivefortheindefinitelyforeseeablefutureinanuclearworldthatisverydangerous
indeed.
Thereisnttimenowtospelloutindetaileverythingthatneedstobedone,butputtingitbriefly,therearethreebigbaskets
ofissuesaboutwhichwehavetogetseriousandgetserioussimultaneouslybecausetheyarecloselyinterrelated.
Thefirstisdisarmament,notonlybecausetheexisting stockpiles are so dangerous, but because so long as anyone has
nuclearweapons others will want them. The immediate need is to get serious, in a way that none of the nucleararmed
stateshavesofarbeenpreparedto,aboutatimelinefordrasticallyreducingweaponsstocks.TheICNNDarguedstronglyfor
setting2025astheminimizationpointbywhichtimenuclearoverallweaponsnumberswouldbedownbyover90per
cent,from23,000downtolessthan2,000allstateswouldhavesigneduptoadoctrineofnofirstuseandcredibility
wouldbegiventothatcommitmentbynearlyallremainingweaponsbeingtakenoutofactivedeployment.Gettingtothis
pointwillbetough,butdoable.Anditwillmaketheworldmuchsaferthanitisnow.
Getting from there to complete global zero will be much tougher still, and harder to set a timeline geopolitical,
psychological,andverydifficulttechnicalverificationandenforcementissueswillallbeinplay.Thepointisnottobespooked
bytheserealities,buttoregardthemaschallengesthatcanandwill,overtime,beovercome.Whatseemsunthinkablenow
islikelytoseemmuchmoreachievabletenyearsfromnow:justaspessimismcanfeedonitselfandproducepessimism,so
tooarepositivedevelopmentsselfreinforcing.
The objective now must be to focus singlemindedly on the minimization strategy: to bed down the New START treaty
betweentheUSandRussia(mucheasiersaidthandoneinthecurrentUSpoliticalclimate),andtostartalmostimmediately
onthenextroundofseriousbilateralarmsreductionnegotiations.Thereareplentyofobstaclesaheadinthisrespect,not
leaststatedRussianconcernsabouttheUSperceivedmassivecurrentconventionalweaponssuperiority,andtheproblems
posedbyitsballisticmissiledefenceprograms,buttheyarenotinsuperable.Atthesametimethefoundationshavetobelaid
foreventualmultilateralnegotiationswiththeotherkeyplayersnotleastChina(whichhasconcernsaboutUScapability
verysimilartoRussias),IndiaandPakistan,inrespecttoallofwhomthefirstprioritymustbetrytoreachagreementona
freeze on additions to their present arsenals. And Israel has to recognize that its own interests are best served not by
hangingontoitsownundeclarednuclearweapons,butbybecomingpartofagenuineMiddleEast Nuclear Weapons Free
Zone.
GettingseriousaboutnonproliferationmeansinthefirstinstancestrengtheningtheInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency
(IAEA)astherelevantwatchdogorganization,andeffectivelyremedyingweaknessesintheNonProliferationTreatyregime,
inparticularstrengtheningthesafeguardsregimebyuniversaladoptionofruleswhichallownuclearinspectorstobenotjust
accountants, mechanically recording the flow of sensitive materials through power plants, but real detectives, chasing up
leadsaboutundeclaredfacilitiesandweaponsprograms.TheagreedlanguageontheseandrelatedissuesattheNPTReview
Conferencewaseitherlimpornonexistent,andahugeamountmoreneedstobedone.

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Getting serious about nonproliferation also means addressing the proliferation risks potentially associated with the likely
dramatic expansion of civil nuclear energy in the years ahead, with most immediate need being to ensure that no new
bombstarterkitsarebuiltbynewcountries.Thatmeansinturnbeingabletoofferthemassurancesofsupplyofthefuel
theyneed,thecreationofaninternationallymanagedfuelbank,orsomeothermultilateral arrangement that would pose
lessrisk.Alotofkeycountries,particularlyintheglobalsouth,havebeendraggingtheirfeetonthisissue,anditistimethat
theystopped.
The most immediately pressing of all nonproliferation needs is, of course, to deal effectively with the specific problems of
NorthKoreaandIrangettingPyongyangbackintotheNPTbox,andensuringthatTehrandoesntjumpoutofit.Ibelieve
thattheKoreansituationiscontainableandultimatelysolvable, and that in the case of Iran there is much less likelihood
thanisgenerallyassumedintheWestthatitwillactuallybuildnuclearweaponsbutnoonecandoubttheseriousnessof
boththesesituations,andtheneedtocontinueworkingactivelyandurgentlyforanegotiatedsolution.
There is a final collection of issues, perhaps best thought of as relevant building blocks for both nuclear non
proliferationanddisarmamentaboutwhichwealsoneed,asaninternationalcommunity,tobeveryseriousindeed.The
firstisratifyingintoforcetheComprehensiveTestBanTreaty,whichisstilllimpingalongonapurelyvoluntarycompliance
basisthesecondisnegotiatinganewtreatytobanthefurtherproductionofanyfissilematerialforuseinnuclearweapons,
onwhichprogresshasbeennonexistentforyearsbecauseofablockingexercisebyPakistanandthethirdisgivingreally
practicaleffecttothelargenumberofnuclearsecuritymeasureswhichhavebeenagreedinrecentyearstoreducetherisk
oftheftordiversionofnuclearweaponsormaterialsbyirresponsiblestatesornonstateterroristactors.
Achievinganuclearweaponsfreeworldisnotanimpossibledream,butitwillcertainlybean incredibly hard slog. To get
there,the critical need is to build and sustain the necessary political will, and the most critical ingredient for this, as the
ICNNDspelledoutinitsreport,istherightleadership,atthreedifferentlevels:topdown,sidewaysfrompeers,andbottom
up.
ThecrucialtopdownleadershipisgoingtohavetocomefromtheUSandRussia:holdingbetweenthem95percentofthe
worldsnuclearweapons,disarmamentisinconceivableunlesstheyleadthewaybilaterally.PresidentsObamaandMedvedev
havemadeaflyingstart,butthenexttwoyearswillbeabsolutelycrucialindeterminingwhetherthatmomentumcanbe
maintained.
Whenitcomestopeergroupleverage,likemindedcountriesaroundtheworldhavetobemobilisedtomaintainthepressure
on all the relevant players to do everything that is necessary to advance the disarmament, nonproliferation and building
blockagendasIhavedescribed.Myowncountry,Australia,andJapanandanumberofothershaveplayedimportantroles
at various stages in the past in this respect, but it's crucial that a much broader group, and one fully reflecting southern
voices,beheardinthisrespectinthefuture
Thereallycrucialneed,ofcourse,istosomehowcapturetheimaginationofpublicsaroundtheworldinthesamewayithas
beenbythatothergreatthreattoourglobalsurvival,manmadeclimatechange.Maybethevehicleforthatisnowtohand
with the new film Countdown to Zero, premiered recently in the US and scheduled for worldwide distribution in coming
months, by exactly the same documentary team that produced Al Gores An Inconvenient Truth on the environmental
challenge.Icertainlyhopeso.
If we are going to generate effective action to avoid the horror of nuclear obliteration it will mean continuing determined
effort from all those passionately committed to holding the line on proliferation, and making disarmament happen. That
meansnotjustfromnationalandinternationalleadersbutfromeveryone,ordinarycitizensineverycountryacrossevery
corner of the globe capable of influencing them. And it certainly means from trade unionists, who have long passionately
defendedtherightsofordinaryworkingmenandwomen,includingthemostfundamentalrightofall,toliveoutourlivesin
peaceandsecurity.Asallofyouhereknowbetterthanmost,youdontgettochangetheworldbysimplyobservingit.And
theresnoissueonwhichtheworldneedschangingfasterthanriddingitselfonceandforalloftheinhumane,catastrophic
abominationofnuclearweapons.

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