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GEOG 586
October 2013
A quick visual inspection of these grids indicate that reducing the inhibition
parameter results in grids that are similar to those produced by the Independent
Random Process. Therefore it may be difficult to spot interactions between events
depending on parameter constraints.
I then performed the Thomas clustering process and experimented with altering
each of the variables. When increasing the second variable, the size of clusters, the
points logically spread farther apart and the grid pattern appears similar to some of
Figure
3: Three
different
plotted
points4generated
the
previous
processes
wegrids
haveof
run
(see Figure
below). by a Simple
Sequential Inhibition Process utilizing the R software package with inhibition
parameters of 0.05, 0.01, and 0.07 respectively.
Decreasing the first variable, the intensity of the process that produces cluster
centers, resulted insubstantially narrowing the range of locations in which point
events occur (see Figure 5 below).
Decreasing the third variable, the expected number of events in each cluster,
determines the dependence of a new event point based on locations of previous
points. This resulted in obvious clustering, though not yet extreme (see Figure 6
below).
Conclusion
This project was a good exercise in the nature of stochastic processes, and how
difficult it can be to determine accurately whether a stochastic process is indeed
completely random or if it contains first- or second-order effects. We verified that
random does not necessarily mean that no clusters or gaps will occur. We also
demonstrated first-order effects through use of the Inhomogeneous Poisson Process,
and second-order effects through use of Interactions Between Events. When
performing a geospatial analysis, knowledge of these effects is important if one is to
truly understand the geographic data being analyzed. It is difficult to accurately
analyze the results without knowledge of the underlying process. It would be easy
to misinterpret many of these resulting grids as having some sort of non-random
pattern, when in reality, all three processes demonstrated were essentially
random. This could be a fine line between detecting a disease outbreak and
crying wolf.
References
National Public Radio [NPR]. ( January 24, 2011) Interview with Brian Green: A
Physicist Explains Why Parallel Universes May Exist. Retrieved October 2013 at
http://www.npr.org/2011/01/24/132932268/a-physicist-explains-why-paralleluniverses-may-exist
O'Sullivan, David. (2014). GEOG 586: Geographic Information Analysis, Lesson 3:
Classical Spatial Analysis. The Pennsylvania State University World Campus.
Accessed October 2013 at https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog586/l4.html
O'Sullivan, D., & Unwin, D. J. (2010). Geographic Information Analysis. (2nd ed.).
Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.