SPCWatch

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
NORMAN OK
0343 PM CST MON NOV 03 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN
NM...WRN TX / TX PANHANDLE...AND
WRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032143Z - 032345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20

PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST
AND/OR LARGE HAIL REPORT.
DISCUSSION...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS...AS
WELL AS CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH...WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND WRN TX HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THEREFORE...DESPITE MEAGER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE
RATES...MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF
500 J/KG HAVE BEEN REALIZED PER
MESO-ANALYSIS DATA.
WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THIS EVENING...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KT WILL
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION /E.G. SUPERCELLULAR
STRUCTURES/ WITH ANY OF THE MORE

ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP.

CONSIDERING THIS POTENTIAL...AND THE
POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING DUE TO
SOME GREATER
INSOLATION...ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS OR MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL
REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.
..PICCA/MOSIER/MEAD.. 11/03/2014

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ.
..EPZ...
LAT...LON 31380584 31470583
32560586 33830446 36230155 36720045
36969931 36889837 36479826
35699861 34139996 32740142
32050208 31550263 30760414
30540506 31380584

InfraredImage

Infrared images record longwave infrared radiation

with wavelengths in the atmospheric window that
is emitted by cloud tops, land, oceans or ice and
snow. While most things on earth emit longwave
infrared radiation, warmer objects emit more than
colder ones. Hence, the relative amounts of

infrared radiation emitted by cloud tops, land,

oceans and snow/ice gives information about their
relative temperatures. Infrared images can be
recorded day or night.
Visible Image

Visible images record visible light (from the sun)

that is reflected by clouds, land, oceans or snow
and ice. There is an important difference between

visible and infrared images. Since visible images

record reflected light rather then emitted
radiation, they tell how reflective an object is but
nothing about its temperature. Visible images can
only be recorded during the daytime.
Doppler Image

Blue indicates light rain, green indicates rain, orange (4550 dbZ), yellow and red indicates heavy rain and
thunderstorms, while purple (75 dbZ) indicates extremely
heavy rain and hail.

Reflection Writing

I have really enjoyed this class, it's been very

interesting and useful to get to learn about how to
differentiate weather related information. This
course brings very cool facts about atmospherific
changes and helps you understand how everything
is related.