Submission Date : Friday 19th Sept 2014 before 5pm

ASSIGNMENT 1
1. Messages that arrive at a service center for an information systems manufacturer have been
classified on the basis of the number of keywords and the type of message, either email or
voice. Also 70% of the messages arrive via email and the rest are voice.
number of keyword
email
voice

0
0.1
0.3

1
0.1
0.4

2
0.2
0.2

3
0.4
0.1

4
0.2
0

Determine the probability mass function of the number of keywords in a message.

[Ans: p(x0)= 0.16, p(x1)= 0.19, p(x2)= 0.2, p(x3)= 0.31, p(x4)= 0.14]
2. Determine the probability mass function for the random variable with the following cumulative
distribution function:
( )
{
[Ans: P(2)= 0.2, P(5.7)= 0.3, P(6.5)= 0.3, P(8.5)= 0.2]
3. From 500 customers, a major appliance manufacturer will randomly select a sample without
replacement. The company estimates that 25% of the customers will provide useful data. If this
estimate is correct, what is the probability mass function of the number of customers that will
provide useful data? Assume that the company samples 5 customers.
[Ans: P(x0)= 0.2373, P(x1)= 0.3955, P(x2)= 0.26367, P(x3)= 0.08789, P(x4)= 0.014648, P(x5)=
0.000976]

4. The probability that your call to a service line is answered in less than 30 seconds is 0.75. Assume
that your calls are independent.
(a) If you call 10 times, what is the probability that exactly 9 of your calls are answered within 30
seconds? [Ans: 0.1877]
(b) If you call 20 times, what is the probability that at least 16 calls are answered in less than 30
seconds? [Ans: 0.4148]
(c) If you call 20 times, what is the mean number of calls that are answered in less than 30
seconds? [Ans: 15]
5. Traffic flow is traditionally modelled as a Poisson distribution. A traffic engineer monitors the
traffic flowing through an intersection with an average of 6 cars per minute. To set the timing of a
traffic signal the following probabilities are used.
(a) What is the probability of no cars through the intersection within 30 seconds?
[Ans: 0.0498]

(b) What is the probability of three or more cars through the intersection within 30 seconds?
[Ans: 0.5768]
(c) Calculate the minimum number of cars through the intersection so that the probability of
this number or fewer cars in 30 seconds is at least 90%.[Ans: x=5]
(d) If the variance of the number of cars through the intersection per minute is 20, is the Poisson
distribution appropriate? Explain. [Ans: not appropriate]

TUTORIAL 1
1. A total of 12 cells are replicated. Freshly-synthesized DNA cannot be replicated again until mitosis
is completed. Two control mechanisms have been identified-one positive and one negative-that
are used with equal probability. Assume that each cell independently uses a control mechanism.
Determine the following probability:
(a) all cells use a positive control mechanism. [Ans: 0.00024414]
(b) exactly half the cells use a positive control mechanism. [Ans: 0.2256]
(c) more than four, but less than seven cells use a positive control mechanism. [Ans: 0.4189]
2. A particularly long traffic light on your morning commute is green 20% at the time that you
approach it. Assume that each morning represents an independent trial.
(a) What is the probability that the first morning that the light is green is the fourth morning that
you approach it? [Ans: 0.1024]
(b) What is the probability that the light is not green for 10 consecutive mornings? [Ans: 0.1074]

3. Astronomers treat the number of stars in a given volume of space as a Poisson random variable.
The density in the Milky Way Galaxy in the vicinity of our solar system is one star per 16 cubic
light years.
(a) What is the probability that two or more stars in 16 cubic light years? [Ans: 0.264]
(b) How many cubic light years of space must be studied so that the probability of one or more
stars exceed 0.95? [Ans: 48]
4. The probability that an individual recovers from an illness in one week time period without
treatment is 0.1. Suppose that 20 independent individuals suffering from this illness are treated
with a drug and 4 recover in a one week period. If the drug has no effect, what is the probability
that 4 or more people recover in a one week time period? [Ans: 0.1330]
5. When a computer disk manufacturer tests a disk, it writes to the disk and then tests it using a
certifier. The certifier counts the number of missing pulses or errors. The number of errors on a
test area on a disk has a Poisson distribution with = 0.2.
(a) What is the expected number of errors per test area? [Ans: 0.2]

(b) What percentage of test areas have two or fewer errors? [Ans: 99.89%]