Sales Forecasting

SOAL
FORECASTING
Metode Least Square
Data Penjualan PT MAKMUR
Delapan Tahun Terakhir
Tahun
Penjualan (juta unit)
Harga Per Unit (Rp 000)
Produk A
Produk B
Produk A
Produk B
2003
11,000,000 16,500,000
10,000
5,000
2004
10,000,000 15,000,000
10,000
5,500
2005
12,000,000 18,000,000
11,000
6,000
2006
11,000,000 16,500,000
11,500
6,500
2007
12,000,000 18,000,000
12,000
7,000
2008
10,000,000 15,000,000
12,500
7,500
2009
14,000,000 21,000,000
13,000
8,000
2010
12,000,000 18,000,000
14,000
8,500
92,000,000 138,000,000
Berapa trend penjualan tahun 2011 dengan metode semi average?
FORECASTING PENJUALAN
Metode Least Square
Tahun

Produk A
Produk B
Produk A
2003
11,000,000
16,500,000
10,000
2004
10,000,000
15,000,000
10,000
2005
12,000,000
18,000,000
11,000
2006
11,000,000
16,500,000
11,500
2007
12,000,000
18,000,000
12,000
2008
10,000,000
15,000,000
12,500
2009
14,000,000
21,000,000
13,000
2010
12,000,000
18,000,000
14,000
92,000,000
138,000,000
Berapa trend penjualan tahun 2011 dengan metode Least Square?
FORECASTING JUMLAH SATUAN

PRODUK A
Data Penjualan PT MAKMUR Produk A
Tahun
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

Produk A (Y)
11,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
92,000,000
(XY)
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
0
77,000,000
50,000,000
36,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
30,000,000
70,000,000
84,000,000
22,000,000
Persamaan Trend : Y = a + bX
a = 92.000.000/8
XY
X
11,500,000
Persamaan Trend :
Y = 11.500.000 + 130.952,381
Trend Penjualan tahun 2011 (X=9)
Y = 11.500.000 + 130.952,4 (9) ==>
12,678,571
FORECASTING HARGA
PRODUK A
Data Harga PT. MAKMUR Produk A
Tahun
Harga (Rp)
Produk A (Y)
10,000
10,000
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
14,000
94,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
TOTAL
(XY)
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
0
70,000
50,000
33,000
11,500
12,000
37,500
65,000
98,000
48,000
94,000
8
11,750
XY
X
48,000
168
285.7142857
286 (pembulatan)
Persamaan Trend :
Y = 11.750 + 286 X
Y = 11.750 + 286 (9)
14321.42857
14,321 Pembulatan
T MAKMUR
Terakhir
Produk B
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500

PRODUK B
Data Penjualan PT MAKMUR Produk B
X2
Tahun
49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49
168
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

Produk A (Y)
16,500,000
15,000,000
18,000,000
16,500,000
18,000,000
15,000,000
21,000,000
18,000,000
138,000,000
XY
X
b = 22.000.000/ 168
a = 138.000.000/8
130952.381
17,250,000
Persamaan Trend :
Y = 17.250.000 + 196.428,5714 X
Y = 17.250.000 + 196.428,5714 (9) ==>
19,017,857
FORECASTING HARGA
PRODUK B
Data Harga PT. MAKMUR Produk B
X2
Tahun
49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49
168
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
TOTAL
Harga (Rp)
Produk A (Y)
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
54,000
XY
X
Persamaan Trend :
Y = 6.750 + 250 X
Y = 6.750 + 250 (9)
9,000
(XY)
X2
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
0
115,500,000
75,000,000
54,000,000
16,500,000
18,000,000
45,000,000
105,000,000
126,000,000
33,000,000
49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49
168
XY
X
b = 33.000.000/ 168
196428.5714
(XY)
X2
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
0
35,000
27,500
18,000
6,500
7,000
22,500
40,000
59,500
42,000
49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49
168
54,000
6,750
42,000
168
250
FORECASTING
Metode Semi Average
Tahun

Produk A
Produk B
Produk A
2003
11.00
16.50
10.00
2004
10.00
15.00
10.00
2005
12.00
18.00
11.00
2006
11.00
16.50
11.50
2007
12.00
18.00
12.00
2008
10.00
15.00
12.50
2009
14.00
21.00
13.00
2010
12.00
18.00
14.00
Berapa trend penjualan tahun 2011 dengan metode Semi Average?

PRODUK A
Tahun Penjualan (juta unit)
Kelompok
Produk A (Y)
2003
11,000,000
2004
10,000,000
I
2005
12,000,000
2006
11,000,000
2007
12,000,000
2008
10,000,000
2009
14,000,000
II
2010
12,000,000
92,000,000
a = 11.000.000
b = (12.000.000 - 11.000.000) / 4
Persamaan Trend = Y = a + bX
Y2011 = 11.000.000 + 250.000X
Y2011 = 11.000.000 + 250.000 (13)
Y2011 =>
14,250,000
1,000,000
4
X
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
250,000
MUR
hir
Produk B
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
Semi Total
Semi Average
44,000,000
11,000,000
48,000,000
12,000,000
155
116.25
38.75
8
3500 11.66667
38.75
4.84375
4.84375
FORECAST PENJUALAN PRODUK

Metode Least Square
Data Penjualan PT MAKMUR Produk A
Produk A (Y)
2003
11,000,000
2004
10,000,000
2005
12,000,000
2006
11,000,000
2007
12,000,000
2008
10,000,000
2009
14,000,000
2010
12,000,000
92,000,000
Y
a
n
XY
X2
Y = 11.500.000 + 130.952 X
Forecasting tahun 2011
Y = 11.500.000 + 130.952 (9)
12.678.568 unit
XY
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
92,000,000
(77,000,000)
(50,000,000)
(36,000,000)
(11,000,000)
12,000,000
30,000,000
70,000,000
84,000,000
22,000,000
X2
49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49
168
11,500,000
22,000,000
130,952
168
11,500,000
130,952
9 12678568
SEMI AVERAGE
Produk A (Y)
2003
11,000,000
2004
10,000,000
2005
12,000,000
2006
11,000,000
2007
12,000,000
2008
10,000,000
2009
14,000,000
2010
12,000,000
92,000,000
a ==>
b ==>
11,000,000
1,000,000
4
Y2011 = 11.000.000 + 250.000 (13)
Y2011 =>
14,250,000
KELOMPOK
II
250,000
SEMI TOTAL
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
32
SEMI AVERAGE
44,000,000
11,000,000
48,000,000
12,000,000
FORECASTING SEMI AVERAGE

PRODUK A
Produk A (Y)
2003
11,000,000
2004
10,000,000
2005
12,000,000
2006
11,000,000
2007
12,000,000
2008
10,000,000
2009
14,000,000
2010
12,000,000
92,000,000
a ==>
b ==>
KELOMPOK
11,000,000
1,000,000
4
Y2011 => 11.000.000 + 250.000 X
11.000.000 + 250.000 (13)
14,250,000 unit
II
250,000
SEMI TOTAL
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
44,000,000
48,000,000
SEMI AVERAGE
11,000,000
12,000,000

Sales Forecasting

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Sales Forecasting

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

SOAL

Penjualan (juta unit)

FORECASTING JUMLAH SATUAN

Penjualan (juta unit)

FORECASTING JUMLAH SATUAN

Penjualan (juta unit)

Penjualan (juta unit)

FORECASTING JUMLAH SATUAN

FORECAST PENJUALAN PRODUK

FORECASTING SEMI AVERAGE

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