WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

PAPER 1
iGCSE Geography
Miss Vardy
SYLLABUS CONTENT
POPULATION: 7 BILLION
TASK:
Watch the clip from the National Geographic Series 7
billion and counting

Make a note of 4/5 interesting statistics related to
population and population change
HOW MANY IS TOO MANY?
What challenges does a growing population present for our future?
Can you see any potential benefits?
HOW MANY IS TOO MANY?
How many planets would we require if everyone lived like you?
Is this situation sustainable?
SYLLABUS CONTENT
POPULATION DYNAMICS

Candidates should be able to:
Describe the growth of the worlds population
Explain the problems associated with a rapidly increasing global
population
Show an understanding of the causes and consequences of over
population
Show an understanding of the causes and consequences of
under population.


HOW IS THE GLOBAL POPULATION INCREASING?
In 1999 the worlds population reached 6 billion.


The population has grown rapidly in the last 200 years, particularly
since the 1950s. Natural increase peaked at 2.2% globally in the 1960s.


Since then falling birth rates has reduced this increase to 1.2%. However, the
global population is still increasing by 80 million every year.


Estimates suggest that by 2050 the global population will be 9
billion, with zero growth only occurring towards the end of the century.

Its not that we have started breeding like rabbits,
more that we have stopped dying like flies
LEARNING OBJECTIVE 1:
Describe the growth of the worlds population
Changes Downstream in Discharge
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1
.
2 2
4
.
2
5
7
.
2
5
7
.
8
8
.
5
9
.
2
5
1
3
.
5
1
4
.
8
1
5
.
8
distance KM
m
/
s
3
Discharge

This is the peak discharge on the
Innerliethen.
4m/s3 7.8 km downstream

The discharge steeply decreases between
7.8-8.5 KM
Very steep increase between 2
and 4 km. Rise from 0.1 4
m/s3
GEOGRAPHICAL SKILLS DEVELOPMENT: Describing graphs
Look for:
1. Major overall pattern and correlation: ie. The discharge increases with
distance downstream. It is a positive correlation.
2. Describe changes in the lines direction , steepness. (use words like:
increases, rapidly, quickly, decreases, sharply, slowly, smoothly)
3. Identify the highest and lowest values
4. Any anomalies?
The discharge increases
steeply and quickly from
1.2km -7,5km and then
decreases and remains
fairly consistent from
8.5km to 15.8
Lowest discharge is 01.m/s3 at
1.2 km downstream
CAUSES OF POPULATION GROWTH (interrelated factors)
HEALTH medical advances in the control of disease, birth control measures, improved infant
mortality rates, diet and nutrition, numbers of doctors, sanitation
EDUCATION health education, the age at which compulsory schooling finishes, females in
education, literacy rates, levels of tertiary education
SOCIAL PROVISION levels of care for the elderly, clean water supply
CULTURAL FACTORS religious attitudes to birth control, status gain from having children,
the role of women in society
POLITICAL FACTORS taxation to support services, strength of the economy, impact of war
and conflicts, access to health care and contraception
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS frequency of hazards, environmental conditions that breed
disease
ADVANCES IN TECHNOLOGY & INDUSTRY
The industrial revolution
The agricultural revolution, including developments in the breeding of plants and
animals, the mechanisation of agriculture, scientific use of fertilisers, improved
transport and marketing etc,
Improved transport and navigation, which opened up many parts of the world to trade
and allowed the spread of technology, people and ideas.
WHY HAS THE GLOBAL POPULATION INCREASED SO RAPIDLY FROM THE 1700S?
The growth in world population has not taken place evenly. The populations of some
continents have grown, and continue to grown, at faster rates than others.

Europe, North America and Australasia have very low growth rates. In 1995 their share
of the worlds population was 20%. This is expected to fall to 12% by 2050. It is
estimated that Europes population will shrink by 90 million during this period.

Asia has a rapid, but declining, rate of population growth. Between 1995 and 2050
China, India and Pakistan will contribute most to world population growth.
It is estimated that by 2050 India will overtake China as the worlds most populated
country. Another potential area of growth is sub-Saharan Africa, particularly Nigeria and
the Democratic Republic of Congo.
WHY HAS THERE BEEN SUCH A DRAMATIC RISE?
Reduction in death rates in LEDCs (Less Economically
Developed countries)
Increased medical care and access to doctors for all
countries
Longer life expectancies
High birth rates in LEDCs
Limited knowledge of family planning
Religious reasons to have large families
Insurance for family to earn money.
WHAT CAUSES POPULATIONS TO CHANGE?
Two main reasons:
1.NATURAL INCREASE the growth in population
resulting from an excess of births over deaths
2. NET MIGRATION RATE (People moving into or leaving
an area. Immigration= moving into an area, Emigration =
moving out of an area)
Birth rates fall because:
1. Introducing family planning
e.g. China, India
2. Increasing wealth and education
3. Educating women, lengthening
girls time at school, delaying
marriage.

Death Rates fall because:
1. Improving medical care: longer life expectancies
2. Improving sanitation, water supply.
3. Quality and quantity of food improves
4. Transport and communication improve movement of
food and medical supplies
Birth Rate: number of live babies born in every
year for every 1000 people
Death Rate: number of people in every 1000 who
die each year.
Natural Increase: is the difference between birth
and death rates.
Birth rate is higher= increase in population
Death rate is higher= decrease in population
Activity
Birth Rates & Death Rates in England & Wales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1901 1921 1941 1961 1981 2001
Year
R
a
t
e

p
e
r

1
0
0
0
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Q1) Which of the letters W, X, Y, Z refers to natural increase?
Q2) Which year had the most rapid population growth?
Q3) What was the natural increase in 2000?
Q4) What would population decrease look like on the graph?
W
x
y
z

FERTILITY: The number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15-49 in 1 year.

It is also defined as the average number of children each woman in a population will bear.
If this number is 2.1 or higher, a population will replace itself.
FERTILITY

WHAT CAUSES POPULATIONS TO CHANGE?
Why is fertility important?
In most parts of the world fertility exceeds both mortality and migration. It is,
therefore, the main determinant of population growth.















As the rates of mortality have fallen across the world (due to improving standards
of health care and sanitation) fertility has the greatest impact on population growth
and change.










Around the world there are huge variations in fertility rates
In several African countries
including Niger, Liberia and Mali
birth rates are very high at over
50 per 1000, per year
In Austria, Germany,
Bulgaria and the Ukraine,
birth rates are very low,
under 9 per 1000, per year
THIS MAP SHOW COUNTRIES SIZE IN COMPARISON TO THEIR BIRTH RATES.
More children are born each year in Africa than are born in the Americas, all of Europe and
Japan put together. Worldwide, more than a third of a million new people will be born on
your birthday this year
Why does fertility vary?
There are several factors which explain why some countries have higher
rates of fertility than others.

1. The relationship between fertility and the death rate
2. Tradition
3. Education
4. The age structure of the Population
5. Social Class
6. Religion
7. Economic Factors
8. Political Factors
1. The relationship between fertility and death rate
VS
LEDCs: high birth rates to counter the high rates of infant mortality (often
over 100 per 1,000 live births).
e.g. One study of sub-Saharan Africa concluded that a woman must have, on average,
eight or nine children to be 95% certain of a surviving adult son.

MEDCs, average is less than two children.
Improvements in healthcare, sanitation and diet have led to a drop in child mortality and
therefore reduced the need for women to have large numbers of children as forms of
security for the future.
2. Tradition
In some parts of the world
tradition demands high rates
of reproduction.
Intense cultural expectations
many override the wishes of
women. Fertility among women
aged 15-19 is of particular
concern, as these women may
lack the physical development
and social support needed and
child bearing may curtail their
education.
EXAMPLE: In some countries,
such as Chad, Bangladesh
and Mozambique, more than
one in four adolescent girls
have given birth.
3. Education & Literacy rates
Education for women, especially female literacy, is a
key to lower fertility.
Why?
With education comes knowledge of birth control
more opportunities for employment
wider choices.

.
3. Education & Literacy rates
Contraceptive use is becoming more widespread is developing countries to
help women avoid unwanted pregnancies and to lower birthrates, particularly
in Latin American and the Caribbean
e.g.70% women in Brazil practice a modern method of family planning.

In African countries, however, this initiative has been less successful
e.g. only 10% of women in Rwanda are practicing a modern method of family
planning.
Obstacles such as lack of funds and supplies , and the lack of contraceptive
programmes to help educated couples with their choices, are significant barriers.
World literacy
rates
World fertility
rates
4. Young age structures
Young age structures lead to
developing countries far outpacing
developed countries in population
growth.

LEDCs: Large proportions of young
people, as there are in Mali (48%) and
Bolivia (38%), ensure population growth
even when births per woman decline.
This is because the youth bulge is about
to move through the child bearing
years.

MEDCs: Conversely, countries with
smaller proportions of youth, such as
Poland (17%) and Japan (14%), face
population decline even if births per
woman were to increase.
5. Social Class
Fertility decreases from low
to higher classes or castes
6. Religion
7. Economic Factors
LEDCs: Children are an economic
asset they are viewed as
producers rather than consumers

MEDCS: the length of time children
spend in education or childcare
makes them expensive
Economic uncertainty can also lead to a decline in fertility rates
e.g Eastern Europe during the current recession
8. Political Factors
Governments often try to influence the rate of population growth.
Such political influences have been attempts to increase the population (as in
1930s Germany and Japan, and more recently Russia and Romania) or to
decrease it (as in China, with the one child policy)

DEATH RATE: The number of deaths per 1,000, per year.

MORTALITY

Around the world there are big variations in mortality rates
Liberia, Niger, Sierra Leone,
Zambia and Zimbabwe all have
death rates of 20 per 1,000 or
more
HOWEVER! Some LEDCs also have low
death rates
Kuwait (2 per 1,000), Bahrain (3 per
1,000) and Mexico (5 per 1,000).
THIS MAP SHOW COUNTRIES SIZE IN COMPARISON TO THEIR LIFE EXPECTANCIES.
The longest life expectancy at birth is in Japan, at 81 years 6 months. The shortest life
expectancy is in Zambia, at 32 years 8 months. The world average life expectancy is 67
years.
1. Infant Mortality
IMR is an indicator of socioeconomic development
Infant mortality rate = the average number of deaths of children under 1 year of age per
hundred live births
Countries with high IMR have high rates of mortality overall
IM rates are falling across the world, but there are still wide variations between nations
e.g. Liberia 143 per 1,000 live births
Finland - 3 per 1,000
2. Medical infrastructure
Areas with good medical infrastructure, good pre and post natal care,
good facilities and trained professionals have lower levels of mortality
3. Economic Development
MEDCs: longer life expectancy associated with higher levels of development
LEDCs: poverty, poor nutrition and lack of access to clean water increase mortality rates.
World wide only 58% of the population has access to adequate sanitation



WHY IS THE DEATH RATE HIGHER IN SOME COUNTRIES?
NOTE! There are also rural/ urban disparities in LEDCs only between 25-50% of all
rural residents have access to improved sanitation.

AIDS
The incidence of AIDS is having a major effect on mortality, especially in sub-Saharan
Africa.

The number of people in the world now living with HIV/AIDS is now over 40 million, with
over 25 million in sub-Saharan Africa. In some countries in southern Africa (Lesotho,
Swaziland, Botswana and Zimbabwe) over 20% of the total population is affected.

Out of the 7 million HIV/AIDs sufferers in south and southeast Asia over 5 million live in
India. It is estimated, however, that in some countries infection rates have started to fall.

WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR OUR GROWING POPULATION
Will it continue to grow at this rate?
Fertility rates are declining in a range of LEDCS, from east Asia to the Caribbean, and
throughout most of South America. Although traditional religious attitudes are usually seen as
a barrier to low fertility, in the Islamic world fertility is now below replacement level, fewer than
2.12 children per woman. Tunisia, Iran and Turkey are now all in this category.

Population growth

The fertility level required to maintain the population level is 2.12 children per woman. There are
already over 50 countries with fertility rates below this level. The UN predicts that by 2016 there
will be 88 nations in this category. China is already a member of the Under 2.1 club although its
population will not begin to decline until 2040 at the earliest.


In the more economically developed world, population growth has been slow for several decades.


Population growth in the more developed world


Italys population is
expected to decrease by 4
million by 2020
In the next 40 years Germany
could see its population drop
by almost 20%
Japans population
is forecast to
decline by 25% by
2050
In Russia the fall in the population (natural
decrease) has been described by President
Putin as a national crisis
Population growth in the less developed world



CHINA
Most populous country
Annual population growth of
0.4%
INDIA
Population over 1 billion
Will be the most populous
country in 2050
annual population growth of
around 0.9% per year
Disparities between the poor
north and the rich south
Fertility has dropped more than
50% in the past 30 years.
The fastest rates of population growth have been in LEDCS. The average growth rate in
the less developed world (excluding China) is 1.8%.

Except in Africa and the middle east, where in almost 50 countries families of at least 6
children are the norm and the annual population growth is still over 2.3%, birth rates are
now declining in LEDCS.

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