Population Projection Various Decades

POPULATION PROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL
Input Data :
Year
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
Population
112000
200000
251000
401000
606000
1042000
1395953
1613878
Population required for Year
2046
Summary of Results :
(a)
Average of Three
Arithmetical Progression Method :
2,364,817
persons
Geometrical Progression Method
5,517,039
persons
Incremental Increase Method
2,535,342
persons
3,472,399

YEAR
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
112000
200000
251000
401000
606000
1042000
1395953
1613878
Total
Average
INCREMENT
88000
51000
150000
205000
436000
353953
217925
1501878
214554
Increase in Population from

1941
to
Increase per decade =
Pop in
2046
2011
i.e.
2011
+ Increase for
3.5
decades =
1501878
persons
3.5
decades
214554
= Pop in
1613878
2364817
persons
214554

(b)

YEAR
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
112000
200000
251000
401000
606000
1042000
1395953
1613878
Number of values =
Geometric Mean rg =
INCREMENT
88000
51000
150000
205000
436000
353953
217925
RATE OF GROWTH
0.7857
0.255
0.5976
0.5112
0.7195
0.3397
0.1561
7
\
0.420771971
Assuming that the future growth follows above geometric mean,

Pop in
(c)
2046
= Pop in
1613878
5517039
x (1 + rg)^ 3.5
2011
x (1+ .4208 ) ^ 3.5
persons
Incremental Increase Method :

YEAR
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
112000
200000
251000
401000
606000
1042000
1395953
1613878
Total
Count
Average
INCREASE
88000
51000
150000
205000
436000
353953
217925
1501878
7
214554
INCREMENTAL INCREASE
+
+
+
-
-37000
99000
55000
231000
-82047
-136028
129925
6
21654
n=
3.5
Pn = P1 + nX + n(n+1)Y/2
For Pop of Year
2046

Pop in
2046 =
1613878 +
2535342
3.5 x 214554 + 3.5 x 4.5 x 21654 / 2

persons

Input Data :
Year
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
Population
200000
251000
401000
606000
1042000
1395953
1613878
2046
(a)
Average of Three
2,438,639
persons
4,972,145
persons
2,701,546
persons
3,370,777

YEAR
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
200000
251000
401000
606000
1042000
1395953
1613878
Total
Average

1951
to
Pop in
2046
INCREMENT
51000
150000
205000
436000
353953
217925
1413878
235646
2011
i.e.
decades =
1413878
235646
= Pop in
2011
1613878
2438639
persons
+ Increase for
3.5
3.5
x
235646

(b)

YEAR
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
200000
251000
401000
606000
1042000
1395953
1613878
INCREMENT
51000
150000
205000
436000
353953
217925
Number of values =
RATE OF GROWTH
0.255
0.5976
0.5112
0.7195
0.3397
0.1561
6
\
0.379179757
Geometric Mean rg =

Pop in
(c)
2046
= Pop in
1613878
4972145
2011
x (1 + rg)^ 3.5
x (1+ .3792 ) ^ 3.5

persons

YEAR
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
200000
251000
401000
606000
1042000
1395953
1613878
Total
Count
Average
INCREASE
51000
150000
205000
436000
353953
217925
1413878
6
235646
+
+
+
-
99000
55000
231000
-82047
-136028
166925
5
33385
n=
3.5
Pn = P1 + nX + n(n+1)Y/2
For Pop of Year
Pop in
2046
2046 =
1613878 +
3.5 x 235646 + 3.5 x 4.5 x 33385 / 2

=
2701546
persons
ROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL
Average of Three
persons
decades

Input Data :
Year
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
Population
251000
401000
606000
1042000
1395953
1613878
2046
(a)
Average of Three
2,567,894
persons
5,378,601
persons
2,701,619
persons
3,549,371

YEAR
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
251000
401000
606000
1042000
1395953
1613878
Total
Average

1961
to
Pop in
2046
INCREMENT
150000
205000
436000
353953
217925
1362878
272576
2011
i.e.
decades =
1362878
272576
= Pop in
2011
1613878
2567894
persons
+ Increase for
3.5
3.5
x
272576

(b)

YEAR
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
251000
401000
606000
1042000
1395953
1613878
INCREMENT
150000
205000
436000
353953
217925
Number of values =
RATE OF GROWTH
0.5976
0.5112
0.7195
0.3397
0.1561
5
\
0.41049336
Geometric Mean rg =

Pop in
(c)
2046
= Pop in
1613878
5378601
2011
x (1 + rg)^ 3.5
x (1+ .4105 ) ^ 3.5

persons

YEAR
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
251000
401000
606000
1042000
1395953
1613878
Total
Count
Average
INCREASE
150000
205000
436000
353953
217925
1362878
5
272576
+
+
-
55000
231000
-82047
-136028
67925
4
16981
n=
3.5
Pn = P1 + nX + n(n+1)Y/2
For Pop of Year
Pop in
2046
2046 =
1613878 +
2701619
3.5 x 272576 + 3.5 x 4.5 x 16981 / 2

persons
Average of Three
persons
decades

Input Data :
Year
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
Population
87981
137927
191212
330958
410050
2046
Average of Three

(a)
691,860
persons
1,477,853
persons
768,365
persons
979,359

YEAR
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
87981
137927
191212
330958
410050
Total
Average
INCREMENT
49946
53285
139746
79092
322069
80517

1971
to
2011
80517
Pop in
2046
= Pop in
i.e.
2011
410050
691860
persons
decades =
+ Increase for
3.5
322069
3.5
x
80517

(b)

YEAR
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
87981
137927
191212
330958
410050
INCREMENT
49946
53285
139746
79092
Number of values =
Geometric Mean rg =
0.442394797
RATE OF GROWTH
0.5677
0.3863
0.7308
0.239

Pop in
(c)
2046
= Pop in
410050
1477853
x (1 + rg)^ 3.5
2011
x (1+ .4424 ) ^ 3.5
persons

YEAR
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
87981
137927
191212
330958
410050
Total
Count
Average
INCREASE
49946
53285
139746
79092
322069
4
80517
+
+
-
3339
86461
-60654
29146
3
9715
2046
n=
3.5
2046 =
410050 +
3.5 x 80517 +
768365
persons
Pn = P1 + nX + n(n+1)Y/2
For Pop of Year
Pop in
3.5 x 4.5 x 9715 / 2
YEAR
Arithmetical
Progression
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2046
410050
450309
490567
530826
571084
611343
651601
691860
POPULATION
Geometrical
Incremental
Progression
Increase
410050
492469
591454
710335
853110
1024583
1230522
1477853
410050
453952
500282
549041
600229
653846
709891
768365
Graphical
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Average of Three
persons
decades

Input Data :
Year
1981
1991
2001
2011
Population
137927
191212
330958
410050
2046
Average of Three

(a)
727,528
persons
1,355,128
persons
829,147
persons
970,601

YEAR
1981
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
137927
191212
330958
410050
Total
Average
INCREMENT
53285
139746
79092
272123
90708

1981
to
2011
90708
Pop in
2046
= Pop in
i.e.
2011
410050
727528
persons
decades =
+ Increase for
3.5
272123
3.5
x
90708

(b)

YEAR
1981
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
137927
191212
330958
410050
INCREMENT
53285
139746
79092
Number of values =
Geometric Mean rg =
0.407105575
RATE OF GROWTH
0.3863
0.7308
0.239

Pop in
(c)
2046
= Pop in
410050
1355128
x (1 + rg)^ 3.5
2011
x (1+ .4071 ) ^ 3.5
persons

YEAR
1981
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
137927
191212
330958
410050
Total
Count
Average
INCREASE
53285
139746
79092
272123
3
90708
+
-
86461
-60654
25807
2
12904
2046
n=
3.5
2046 =
410050 +
3.5 x 90708 +
829147
persons
Pn = P1 + nX + n(n+1)Y/2
For Pop of Year
Pop in
3.5 x 4.5 x 12904 / 2
YEAR
Arithmetical
Progression
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2046
410050
455404
500758
546112
591466
636820
682174
727528
POPULATION
Geometrical
Incremental
Progression
Increase
410050
486407
576984
684427
811877
963060
1142397
1355128
410050
460243
513662
570307
630178
693275
759598
829147
Graphical
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Average of Three
persons
decades

Input Data :
Year
1991
2001
2011
Population
191212
330958
410050
2046
Average of Three

(a)
793,017
persons
1,391,948
persons
315,366
persons
833,444

YEAR
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
191212
330958
410050
Total
Average

1991
to
Pop in
2046
INCREMENT
139746
79092
218838
109419
2011
i.e.
decades =
218838
109419
= Pop in
2011
410050
793017
persons
+ Increase for
3.5
3.5
x
109419

(b)

YEAR
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
191212
330958
410050
INCREMENT
139746
79092
Number of values =
Geometric Mean rg =
0.417924874
RATE OF GROWTH
0.7308
0.239

Pop in
(c)
2046
= Pop in
2011
410050
1391948
x (1 + rg)^ 3.5
x (1+ .4179 ) ^ 3.5

persons

YEAR
1991
2001
2011
POPULATION
191212
330958
410050
Total
Count
Average
INCREASE
139746
79092
218838
2
109419
-60654
-60654
1
-60654
n=
3.5
Pn = P1 + nX + n(n+1)Y/2
For Pop of Year
Pop in
2046
2046 =
410050 +
315366
3.5 x 109419 + 3.5 x 4.5 x -60654 / 2

persons
POPULATION

YEAR
Arithmetical
Progression
Geometrical
Progression
Incremental
Increase
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2046
410050
464760
519469
574179
628888
683598
738307
793017
410050
488274
581420
692336
824410
981680
1168951
1391948
410050
442014
458815
460452
446926
418236
374383
315366
Graphical
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Average of Three
persons
decades

Population Projection Various Decades

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Population Projection Various Decades

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POPULATION PROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

Population required for Year

Arithmetical Progression Method :

Geometrical Progression Method

Incremental Increase Method

Arithmetical Progression Method :

Increase in Population from

POPULATION PROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

POPULATION PROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

Geometrical Progression Method

Assuming that the future growth follows above geometric mean,

Incremental Increase Method :

POPULATION PROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

3.5 x 214554 + 3.5 x 4.5 x 21654 / 2

POPULATION PROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

Population required for Year

Arithmetical Progression Method :

Geometrical Progression Method

Incremental Increase Method

Arithmetical Progression Method :

Increase in Population from

POPULATION PROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

Geometrical Progression Method

Assuming that the future growth follows above geometric mean,

x (1+ .3792 ) ^ 3.5

Incremental Increase Method :

3.5 x 235646 + 3.5 x 4.5 x 33385 / 2

POPULATION PROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

ROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

ROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

ROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

POPULATION PROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

Population required for Year

Arithmetical Progression Method :

Geometrical Progression Method

Incremental Increase Method

Arithmetical Progression Method :

Increase in Population from

POPULATION PROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

Geometrical Progression Method

Assuming that the future growth follows above geometric mean,

x (1+ .4105 ) ^ 3.5

Incremental Increase Method :

3.5 x 272576 + 3.5 x 4.5 x 16981 / 2

ROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

ROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

POPULATION PROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

Population required for Year

Arithmetical Progression Method :

Arithmetical Progression Method :

Increase in Population from

Increase per decade =

POPULATION PROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

Geometrical Progression Method

Assuming that the future growth follows above geometric mean,

Incremental Increase Method :

3.5 x 4.5 x 9715 / 2

POPULATION PROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

ROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

ROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

ROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

POPULATION PROJECTION AS PER CPHEEO MANUAL

Population required for Year