Possibilities of Single Currency in South Asia

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SUBMITTED TO Mr. Md. Shariful Islam Fellow, Associate Professor Institute of Business Administration University of Rajshahi Rajshahi

SUBMITTED BY Group: 2

Course Title: International Financial Management Course Code: Fin-704 Report Title: Possibilities of Single Currency in South Asia

Date of submission: 15 April 2014

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Transmittal Letter

Date: 15 April, 2014

Mr. Md. Shariful Islam Fellow, Associate Professor Institute of Business Administration University of Rajshahi Rajshahi Subject: Submission of Term Paper on Possibilities of a Single Currency in South Asia Sir, Here we are submitting the report on Possibilities of a Single Currency in South Asia prescribed by you in your course International Financial Management, Fin-704. For this purpose, We have gone through Internet, different books, articles, and journals for relevant information on the assigned topic. Please call me for any further information at your convenient time and place.

Yours truly, Mohaiminul Haque Mithun (On behalf of Group 2) Institute of Business Administration University of Rajshahi Rajshahi

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Authorization Letters

Date: 15 April, 2014

Mr. Md. Shariful Islam Fellow, Associate Professor Institute of Business Administration University of Rajshahi Rajshahi

Subject: Declaration regarding the validity of the Term Paper

Sir, This is our truthful declaration that the Report we have prepared is not a copy of any research report previously made by any other student. We also express my honest confirmation in support of the fact that the said Report has neither been used before to fulfill any other course related purpose nor it will be submitted to any other person or authority in future.

Yours truly,

Mohaiminul Haque Mithun (On behalf of Group 2) Institute of Business Administration University of Rajshahi Rajshahi

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Foreword

It is with affection and appreciation that we acknowledge our indebtedness to our honorable course teacher Mr. Md. Shariful Islam, Fellow, Associate Professor, Institute of Business Administration, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, who has assigned us to prepare this report and help us with his support, encouragement and expertise. Though having limitation of analytical skills and opportunities we are incredibly fortunate to have such a report which is a distinct initiative of working on Possibility investigation of a common currency in the South Asian bloc. So we really are very grateful to our honorable course teacher because of having trust on us. To accomplish the report objective we tried to examine if the seven South Asian countries satisfy the criteria to form an optimal currency area. We found some geo-political reasoning for more economic cooperation among the countries, suggesting areas where cooperation could be mutually beneficial to the economies. We also tried to compares this region with other areas like Western Europe and Southeast Asia. But we failed to find any substantial possibility of near future inception of a single currency. But still its a matter of debate we admit. . Preparing this report is not only the singly outcome of ours, rather we are indebted to many individual who had extended generous support during data collection and had provided valuable comments during several group study period and to organize it finally. We would like to thank our Classmates of IBA, and many those, for whose enthusiastic encouragements and support during the preparation of this report and for their assistance in composing and proofreading this manuscript we are finally able to present it.

Group 2 Session: 2012-2013 MBA for BBA graduates Institute of Business Administration University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi

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List of Tables, Figures and Appendices

Table: Table: Table: Table: Figure: Appendix: Table 1: Inflation Rate Table 2: GDP at current market Price ($) Table 3: Annual Percentage Change in GDP Table 4: Trade Balance (ml US$) Table 5: International Reserve (ml US $) Table 6: Exchange Rate (per US $) 1 2 3 4 1 Inter regional export Inter regional import Trends in intra-regional group trade Intra-regional trade share of South Asias total trade Inflation rates of Bangladesh & India

Abstract
The growth of regional economic cooperation arrangement is one of the major developments in the post World War II period. The formation of regional integration has been greatly successful in bringing historically hostile countries together. The classic example is the state in the European Union and the South East Asia where economic dimensions have brought long time foes in the same dais. The basic premise on which SAARC was founded was that by activating cooperative cultural identities and economic interests, political conflicts and tensions in South Asia could be moderated, if not completely eliminated. It looks advantageous if SAARC countries could adopt a single currency-substantially enhancing their bargaining power together in the world market. In this paper drive has been made to analyze the possibilities and benefits of a single currency in SAARC countries. A common currencys attraction is that it doesnt represent the currency of any single country. Its advantageous to deal with a lesser number of currencies since each time one converts a currency there is a huge loss. The common currency regime, when achieved, can present substantial benefits to the region. With uncertainty about exchange rates removed, and transaction costs reduce trade and investment in the region can get a big boost. Also with money creation under regional guidelines, there would be better prospects of synchronization of inflation, interest rate and GDP growth, all of which can contribute to accelerated growth and poverty reduction.

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Table of Content
Topics Chapter 01: INTRODUCTION 1.1Prelude 1.2 Literature review 1.3 Objectives of the study 1.4 Methodology of the Study 1.5 Rationale of the Study 1.6 Scope of the study 1.7 Limitations of the study Chapter 02: SINGLE CURRENCY IN SOUTH ASIA 2.1 Discussion on Common Currency 2.1.1 Discussion In Light of European Union & Euro 2.1.2 Preconditions for a Common Currency 2.1.3 Benefits of a Common Currency 2.1.4 Steps Needed to Introduce a Common Currency 2.1.5 Disadvantages of & impediments to a Common currency 2.1.6 Economic Structure of SAARC Nations 2.1.7 Present Political Structure in South Asia 2.1.7.1 Intra-state conflicts 2.1.7.2 Inter-state conflicts 2.2 Analysis of Possibilities of Single Currency 2.2.1 Economic indicator: Trade 2.2.2 Comparative Analysis of Other Economic Indicators 2.2.3 Comparision of Intra-regional Trade in Different Regions 2.2.4 Importance of Increasing Intra regional Trade 2.2.5 Common Currency before Economic Integration: Putting Car before the Bullock? 2.2.6 A Closer Look on Common Currency payback for Bangladesh: Benefit or Buckle? 2.2.7 A Visualization of the Predicaments for Bangladesh 2.2.8 Possible Gains for Bangladesh 2.2.9 Possible Losses for Bangladesh Chapter 03: CONCLUSION 3.1 Findings 3.2 Recommendation 3.3 Conclusion 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 17 18 18 19 20 20 21 22 22 23
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Abstract

The growth of regional economic cooperation arrangement is one of the major developments in the post World War II period. The formation of regional integration has been greatly successful in bringing historically hostile countries together. The classic example is the state in the European Union and the South East Asia where economic dimensions have brought long time foes in the same dais. The basic premise on which SAARC was founded was that by activating cooperative cultural identities and economic interests, political conflicts and tensions in South Asia could be moderated, if not completely eliminated. It looks advantageous if SAARC countries could adopt a single currency-substantially enhancing their bargaining power together in the world market. In this paper drive has been made to analyze the possibilities and benefits of a single currency in SAARC countries. A common currencys attraction is that it doesnt represent the currency of any single country. Its advantageous to deal with a lesser number of currencies since each time one converts a currency there is a huge loss. The common currency regime, when achieved, can present substantial benefits to the region. With uncertainty about exchange rates removed, and transaction costs reduce trade and investment in the region can get a big boost. Also with money creation under regional guidelines, there would be better prospects of synchronization of inflation, interest rate and GDP growth, all of which can contribute to accelerated growth and poverty reduction.

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CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Prelude

After the Second World War, the world experienced a major change in terms of economic cooperation. The growth of regional economic cooperation arrangement is one of the m a j o r developments in the post war period. The formation of regional integration has been greatly successful in brining historically hostile countries together. Both economic and political factors are responsible for the formation of regional agreements, but economic factor is the prevailing factor in pushing a country towards regional integration. The classic example is the states in the European Union and the Southeast Asia where economic dimensions have brought long time foes in the same dais. The basic premise on which SAARC was founded was that by activating cooperative cultural identities and economic interests, political conflicts and tensions in South Asia could be moderated, if not completely eliminated. SAARC now stands at a critical stage of are evolution where, given the right push, it can overcome past constraints and barriers to emerge as a dynamic factor in the peace and prosperity of more than a billion South Asians. The recent SAARC head of states conference in Dhaka showed a hint of improved cooperation among the member countries. The activation of SAFTA is a step towards more integrated economic cooperation. A common currency's attraction is that it doesn't represent the currency of any single country. From an economist's point of view, it's advantageous to deal with a lesser number of currencies since each time one converts a currency there is a huge loss. From the perspective of comparative advantage enjoyed by some of the South Asian countries in export of certain items like tea in the case of India and Sri Lanka, jute in the ca e of Bangladesh and India, basmati rice and cotton in the case of India and Pakistan, it looks advantageous if SAARC countries could adopt a single currency substantially enhancing their bargaining power together in the world market. This report evaluates the opportunity of introducing a common currency for the SAARC and also examines the feasibility of that common currency while taking overall current situation under consideration.

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1.2 Literature Review

Very few researches have been conducted on the implementation and benefits of common currency in south Asian countries. Saxena (2004) tried to identify whether the South Asian countries satisfy the criteria to form a monetary union and to enjoy the benefits of single currency. This study discovered that not only the economic criteria but also the geo-political factors are the important determinants in the decision to move to a single currency. It argued that the benefit of monitory union and common currency would help to develop the economic integration in the form of higher formal trade, peace, and stability within the South Asian countries. The literature emphasized trade as the main channel through which benefits from a common currency would be enjoyed, because they are likely to benefit from low transaction costs and elimination of exchange rate risks. This study also mentioned that labor mobility had been emphasized in the optimum currency area literature as it helps the members of a monetary union to adjust to asymmetric shocks by allowing labor to move from high unemployment areas to low unemployment areas. Rajesh (2002) mentioned that with the implementation of common currency in the European Union, created the opportunity of the era of boundless prosperity . He also stated that South Asia could be benefited by implementing the common currency. If common currency is implemented by South Asian countries the transaction costs of one currency to another can be eliminated, which will reduce the costs of production and distribution. He also mentioned that if conversion costs can eliminate and South Asian countries permits free trade, the informal trade could be translated to formal trade, in turn government would be able to earn valuable revenue. In this study he found some impediment towards a common currency. He mentioned that considerations of sovereignty had traditionally weighted heavily on South Asian countries, this is why the collective decision making in SAARC network is very slow. The major drawback in the implementation of common currency is the economic condition of the countries. South Asian countries are plagued with weak economic fundamentals as well as different level of economic development. To overcome these situations he suggested establishing South Asian Central Bank which will formulate an appropriate common monetary policy.

1.3 Objectives of the Study

The aim of this paper is to see if South Asia could form a monetary union and enjoy the benefits from a single currency. The possibility of a common currency depends upon several economic factors and particular political condition. Our main objectives therefore were to: Determine whether the intra regional trade volume was adequate or not. Determine the existence of capital and labor mobility Observe the present political structure of SAARC countries Observe the present economic structure of SAARC countries Verify the prospects of a common currency for the region Analyze the problems or prospects of Bangladesh with the inception of a common currency

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1.4 Methodology
We prepared this report with a comprehensive effort on justifying the problems and prospects of a common currency for SAARC nations. As the topic is hypothetical we depended on different journals and articles earlier published on this particular hypothesis. We used many academic researches on the possibilities of single currency for our comprehension. Then we collect ed economic data from secondary sources and analyzed the data. After the interpretation of the data we justified the possibilities of a single currency on that basis.

1.5 Rationale of the study

On December 5, 1985, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka formed the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Cooperation was sought in economic, social, scientific and cultural areas. For much of the time since the formation of SAARC, the benefits of association have not been tapped because of internal and external conflicts within and between member states, rigid and inflexible economic policies, extensive bureaucracy, and rampant corruption. However, the situation is improving and the nations are committed to promoting regional cooperation. They are seeking to reduce political, military and economic tensions, expand trade, take measures to eliminate poverty and protect the environment, and improve cultural links that exist among the South Asian states. In addition to regional cooperation, some countries are promoting bilateral cooperation to expedite the process. For example, India and Sri Lanka have been engaged in bilateral trade agreements in order to have free trade by 2005. It is hoped that through economic cooperation, the political tensions in the region could be reduced.

1.6 Scope
This report contains a discussion on a single currency in SAARC in light of successful inception of EURO. The possibility was compared with other regional area and hence the range of discussion extended to every regional group of the world. Monetary integration largely depends on economic and political integration and the report contains a detailed discussion on such issues. It comprises of the relevant economic trends, criteria and indicators to justify the possibilities of single currency in SAARC.

1.7 Limitations
The economics of CCA is an abstruse technical subject that is difficult to fully comprehend or agree on. This hypothetical analysis of us was not up to the mark for the following limitations: Scarcity of latest data from available secondary sources Incompetent skills of the members on multifaceted statistical analysis There was a limitation of time; due to shortage of time the study could not include a more sophisticated analysis.
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CHAPTER TWO: SINGLE CURRENCY IN SOUTH ASIA

2.1 Discussion on Common Currency

Common currency means that individual countries do not have their own currency, and whole task of currency creation and monetary policy is agreed at a regional level with agreements on national component of currency and money creation. Interest rate hand exchange rate policies are also centralized. That system requires surrender of monetary sovereignty associated with currency creation and monetary expansion. In the context of European integration movement, the first stage was introduction of European Currency Unit (ECU), a composite monetary unit consisting of a basket of European Community currencies and the process of consolidation under European Monetary Union (EMU) before gradual evolution to the single currency, Euro.

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2.1.1 Discussion In Light of European Union & Euro

As discussed in the introduction, political and economical factors are the stimulus for pushing countries towards regional integration. European Union is the precise example in this case. After the Second World War, the whole Europe was left, by economic and human destruction. The then European political leaders realized that the only way to recover from this devastating situation was to go for a greater cooperation among the European Countries. Many organizations were formed, including the European Economic Community (EEC), which eventually emerged as the organization that would bring together the countries of Europe into the most power full trading bloc in the world. The EEC, later called the European Community (EC), and finally the European Union'(EU), set about to abolish internal tariffs in order to more closely integrate European Markets and allow economic cooperation to help avoid further political conflict. EU ultimately succeeded in pursuing its goal and currently EU is the only monetary union in the world. History of Euro The Treaty of Rome (1957) declared a common European market as a European objective with the aim of increasing economic prosperity and contributing to "an ever closer union among the peoples of Europe". The Single European Act (1986) and the Treaty on European Union (1992) have built on this, introducing Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and laying the foundations for a single currency. The third stage of EMU began on 1 January 1999 when the exchange rates of the participating monetary policy; the euro was introduced as a legal currency.

2.1.2 Preconditions for a Common Currency

Robert Mundell, Professor of Columbia University first introduced the concept of Optimal Currency Area (OCA) in 1961, and asked the following question: Under what conditions does a common currency lead to better economic integration among the member countries? Most of the academic researchers suggest the following criteria should be met among the proposed member countries before introducing a common currency higher labour mobility, price and wage flexibility, degree of openness, product diversification, effectiveness of monetary policy, correlation and variation of shocks, political integration. If, for example, potential members of a common currency area have labour force that is mobile, sufficient price and wage flexibility, a high degree of openness, similar inflation rates and political will to abandon their own currency and adopt a new one, then the common monetary policy can benefit all members.

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2.1.3 Benefits of a Common Currency

Since Mundells (1961) and McKinnons (1963) seminal work on OCA, researchers have focused on four inter-relationships between the countries that would impinge on the benefits of adopting a common currency, namely: 1. Extent of trade: If potential members of a union trade a lot with each other, monetary union would reduce transaction costs. 2. Nature of disturbances: If the countries experience similar shocks, the cost of giving up monetary policy independence would decrease. 3. Degree of labor mobility: High labor mobility across borders can be a useful mechanism for adjusting to asymmetric shocks that lead to high unemployment in a subset of the members of the union. 4. Fiscal transfers: If region-specific shocks prevail, a federal fiscal system would provide regional insurance (in the form of federally funded unemployment insurance benefits), thereby attenuating the impact of regional shocks on interregional income differentials. The common currency regime, when achieved, can present substantial benefits to the region. With uncertainty about exchange rates removed, and transaction costs reduced trade and investment in the region can get a big boost. Also with money creation under regional guidelines, there would be better prospects of synchronization of inflation, interest rates and GDP growth, all of which can contribute to accelerated growth and poverty reduction. In fact, a common currency regime can eventually play an important role in convergence towards a target of 7-8 per cent per annual GDP growth for all countries of the region, which is essential. South Asia could benefit most if a common currency is instituted for the whole region. The benefits could be: ** Reduction in transaction costs across the frontiers. In fact, conversion of one currency to another involves costs that increase the production and distribution costs. ** Facilitating the movement of scientific and technical manpower among member nations, as conversion losses will be neutralized. ** As the conversion costs are eliminated, a common currency could play a major role in reducing informal trade. If free trade is permitted in the region, much of this informal trade could be translated into formal trade that, in turn, could earn valuable revenue for the governments. ** pre-empting a South Asian Central Bank, which will facilitate further economic integration.

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2.1.4 Steps Needed to Introduce a Common Currency

Economic cooperation is an integrated process. To achieve economic integration such as introduction of common currency, a certain level of integration is necessary. Otherwise it will never be possible to introduce a common currency in any such region. Before economic integration there are three levels of cooperation exists. In the following they are described in brief: Free trade area Free trade area is the least level of integration. In a free trade area, all barriers to the trade of goods and services among member countries are removed. In the theoretically ideal free trade area, no discriminatory tariffs, quotas, subsidies or administrative impediments are allowed to distort trade between members. Each country however is allowed to determine its own trade policies with regard to non members. Thus for example the tariffs placed on the products of nonmember countries may vary from member to member. The integration of the European Union started as the free trade area. Customs union The customs union is one step further down the road for complete economic integration. A customs union eliminates trade barriers between member countries and adopts a common external trade policy. Establishment of a common external trade policy necessitates significant administrative machinery to oversee trade relations with, non members. The European Union has been able to establish customs union and has moved beyond this stage. Common market The next level of economic integration is common market. A common market has no barriers to trade between member countries, includes a common external trade policy, and allows factors of production to move freely between members. Labor and capital are free to move because there are no restrictions on immigration, emigration, or cross border flows of capital between member countries. Establishing a common market demands a significant degree of harmony and cooperation on fiscal, monetary and employment policies. Economic union Economic union is the level of integration that we are seeking in this report in South Asia. Like the common market, an economic union involves the free trade flow of products and factors of production between member countries and the adaptation of a common external trade policy but it also requires a common currency, harmonization of members' tax rates and a common monetary and fiscal policy. Such a high degree of integration demands a coordinating bureaucracy and the sacrifice of significant amount of national sovereignty to that bureaucracy. The European Union is an economic union, although an imperfect one since not all members of the European Union have adopted the Euro, the common currency of the region and differences in tax rates across countries still remain.

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2.1.5 Disadvantages of & impediments to a Common currency

The biggest disadvantage of economic integration is that there has to be a regional central bank and that bank will be the sole authority in making regional monetary policies. Like the European Central Bank, a similar South Asia Central Bank has to be created in order to supervise the common currency. Now this means individual countries cannot make their own monetary policies. This is where the problem begins. The considerations, of sovereignty have traditionally weighed heavily on South-Asian Countries. They have been averse to surrendering their decision-making powers on a wide range of issues. Collective decision-making is a slow affair in the SAARC network. Even matters of vital importance lie in balance for decades without any decision being made. The issues of the creation of SAPTA and SAFTA are good instances. The creation of both would have enabled all countries of the region derive vital producer and consumer surpluses. But decisions on this issue have been notoriously slow. Another awkward block is the peculiar geography of the region. India is bigger than all the other countries of the region put together. This has driven India to act like the 'dominant big brother'. Consequently, any effort on India's part is looked upon with suspicion. This region also lacks in homogeneity in terms of economic variables like inflation, GDP growth rate and some other. This lacking in homogeneity is a big impediment in introducing common currency. South Asia is also weighed down by its weak economic fundamentals. For the creation of the monetary union, controlling inflation within a fixed range is a pre-requisite. But in the South-Asian region, different countries are at different levels of economic development.

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2.1.6 Economic Structure of SAARC Nations

A similar level of economic development is crucial among potential members of a currency area in order to facilitate economic integration. A similar average level of education, skill and productivity of the work force would help moderate the flow of labor across borders, which could otherwise put social and fiscal strains on the immigrant country. Entry into a monetary union leaves fiscal policy as the only macroeconomic tool for stabilization purposes. Therefore, fiscal policy should not be unduly strained by differences in social and economic structures. For example, the SAARC countries exhibit a similar population age structure. The demographic statistics point out that these countries are not likely to face an aging problem anytime soon, which could otherwise put pressure on fiscal resources and threaten the existence of the union. If countries are at a similar level of development, there would be lower pressure to transfer funds from richer to poorer nations. While the movement between high and low skilled workers could be complementary, one must recognize that economic strains could increase if immigration is in the same skilled category. The structure of production is reasonably similar across the SAARC countries. The industrial sector constitutes roughly a fourth of GDP in all countries, while agriculture varies from 11% (Maldives) to 40% (Nepal). A similarity of economic structure may make them vulnerable to similar shocks, which could require a similar policy response. All the SAARC countries are fairly open to trade, but further liberalization and intraregional Trade may be needed in order to gain the benefits of low transaction costs and elimination of exchange rate risk that accrue from using a common currency. Solid macroeconomic policies and performances are also required for countries in a potential monetary union in order to prevent a poor performer from imposing externalities on the union. Most of the members of SAARC currently have average inflation rates in single digits, low budget and current account deficits. While external debt varies from 20% (India) to 55% (Sri Lanka) of GDP, it appears sustainable for all countries since the share of short-term debt is small and the level of foreign exchange comfortable for most of the countries. A burgeoning external debt may pose a significant cost to the union by increasing sovereign default risk and widening interest rate spreads.

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2.1.7 Present Political Structure in South Asia

2.1.7.1 Intra-state conflicts There is no single factor as main cause of conflict in South Asia. It involves many issues and provides a disappointing picture in every social, economic and political context. This is due to the fact that South Asia is almost perpetually burdened by various inter and intra-state conflicts and crisis stemming from the careless approach of the ruling forces toward resolution of such problems which are based on narrow considerations of caste, religion, ethnicity, language, community, and the like. This distorts the, national integrity and the overall law and order situation of the affected states. Furthermore, South Asia is an area of tremendous political complexities. States: like Pakistan have been largely ruled by authoritarian military rulers. India, as such faces several unresolved issues that stem from internal as well as external sources. These include ethnicity, border disputes, separatist demands, terrorism and subversive activities, communalism, religious problems and so on. In Nepal, for example, the series of democratically elected government failed to produce any better result than the old royal regime due to widespread corruption and crisis of good governance. The political fundamentalists such as Maoists and mainstream political parties are posing major threat to democracy in Nepal. In addition to creating law and order problems, increased human rights violations and a heavy reliance on security forces have undermined the question of legitimacy of governance in Nepal. Moreover, the problem of civil violence in recent years has emerged as a more serious security issue than the problem of inter-state warfare in South Asia. India has been variously preoccupied with separatists and religious conflicts such as in the state of Punjab and Kashmir, an issue that remains controversial between India and Pakistan. Also the conflict with separatists of Mizoram, Assam, and Nagaland (Eastern India) for autonomy and in Gujrat, Mumbai and other parts have certain religious, ethnic, psychological and economic underpinnings. Sri Lanka has also had its own set of problems. Democracy in this tiny island-nation remained overshadowed by the civil war originating from T a m i l-Singhalese ethnic conflicts. These conflicts in Sri Lanka have pushed successive governments on the edge of collapse. Ruling parties in Sri Lanka failed to reform economic policies due to polarized political debate. In Pakistan, the society faces periodic bursts of violence derived from ethnic, sectarian and religious differences in its diverse community. For instance, conflict in the Sindh province between ethnic Sindhis and those residents who migrated from India following partition has made the province, especially its capital Karachi, ungovernable. Conservative religious elements are also very powerful in Pakistan leading to tensions and conflicts over religious differences, which has also played a major role in sustaining the Indo-Pakistan disagreement over Kashmir. Similarly Bhutan and Maldives - the two smallest members of the SAARC also have their own arrays of internal problems. The emerging internal political problems in Bhutan and the fallout of attempted coup in Maldives in 1987 have varying affects in uniting` the country for the cause of development. All this can largely be attributed to the fact, that political and governing institutions in most of the South Asian countries are weak while the political parties themselves lack strength, organization, discipline, and commitments. Taken individually, each of the South Asian states suffer from some kind of instability and consequently projects varying intensities of human deprivation.
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2.1.7.2 Inter-state conflicts South Asia is one of the critical regions with complex security in the world primarily due to the fact that most of the South Asian states are engulfed with varying degrees of conflicts and disputes. Inter-state conflicts in South Asia probably are highest compared to any other regional blocs. Bilateral relations are defined by hostility and mistrust. The differences between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, between Sri Lanka and India; over the nationality of Tamilian, where Sri Lanka accused India, especially state government of Tamil Nadu for supplying arms and providing trainings to the Tamil terrorists in its Southern areas are only two of the most outstanding examples in this regard. Dispute exists between India and Bangladesh over illegal migration from the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) and the demarcation of boundaries involving fertile islands and enclaves and also in sharing the water of river Ganges. In 2008 when a series of bomb blasts occurred in Mumbai, India directly accused Pakistan and Bangladesh for facilitating; the attack. T h e m o s t pronounced security dilemma, however, stems from escalating arms race in South Asia, particularly between the two military powers -India and Pakistan. These disputes among countries further complicate the scenario and have created a lot of problems among the leaders for friendly talks. Similarly the cultural diversity based in languages, religions and ethnicities is another factor that disables the region to unite. Rather it frequently exerts a negative impact on inter-sate relations in South Asia due to religious differences. Countries with widely differing political systems - democracies, military dictatorships and monarchies, characterize the area. Though most of the South Asian states have emerged with shared colonial pasts, similar political experiences, common social values divergences, however, are still significant. India and Sri Lanka are said to have performed better than other functioning democracies with varying degrees of success. Pakistan and Bangladesh at the beginning of the 1990s witnessed a sweeping democratic transition in their domestic scenarios. Nepal's transition to democracy is at the crossroad following the Maoist movement. Bhutan retains the authority of monarch as the dominant institution while the Maldives has yet to experience multiparty political systems. The troubles in South Asia, its widespread tensions, mutual distrust and occasional hostilities are largely considered products of the contradictions of India's security perception with that of the rest of the countries of the area. India's neighbors perceive threats to their security coming primarily from India whereas India considers neighbors as an integral part of its own security system. The supremacy of India in the South Asian power configuration given its geography, demography, economics, and ecology is something about which neither India nor its neighbors can do nothing but accept. But, the image of India in South Asia is that of a power that demands habitual obedience from its neighbors. Thus, the main theme of this doctrine is that South Asia is to be regarded as an Indian backyard. No wonder then, that there has always been certain psychological doubt on the part of the smaller states about their all-powerful neighbor India.

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2.2 Analysis of Possibilities of Single Currency

In this report we are trying to develop a hypothesis. This hypothesis we are callings the rationale behind economic cooperation that is introducing a common currency. The introduction of common currency will be beneficial up to highest point if there is interdependency between the member countries that are going for a common currency. For example the inter trade among the European Union countries was a significant amount. For this reason the transaction cost of converting currencies was huge. Since they were heavily independent and the inter trade cost them a lot, they went for introducing a common currency. So if we can show that there is great deal of interdependence among the South Asian countries then, it can be viable basis for introducing a common currency. In the following, a statistics is given in percentage terms of inter trade among the South Asian nations. In the following statistics India is considered to be the base country. Then we have tried to compare that how much each of the other six countries is dependent on India in terms of Trade.

2.2.1 Economic indicator: Trade

Country BNG BHU BNG Nsig Nsig BHU Nsig Nsig IND MAL NEP PAK SRL Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig IND Nsig 35.50% Nsig Nsig 54.40% Nsig 07.20% MAL Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig NEP Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig PAK SRL Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig 13.40% Nsig Nsig Nsig

Table 01: Inter regional export (Major partners)

The above table shows the percentage figures of inter regional export of South Asia. The blank space indicates either insignificant export or no export relationship with ''the countries. From the table it is evident that 35.55% of Bhutan's total export is to India. Similarly Nepal exports 54.4% of its total export to India. Sri Lanka on the other hand exports only7.2% to India. Maldives export 13.4% of its total export to Sri Lanka. Bangladesh and Pakistan have no significant export trade relationship with any of the South Asian countries.

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Country BNG BHU IND MAL NEP PAK SRL

BNG BHU IND MAL NEP PAK Nsig Nsig 14.70% Nsig Nsig Nsig 6.70% Nsig 85.60% Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig 9.60% Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig 48.4% Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig Nsig 14.40% Nsig Nsig Nsig Table 02: Inter regional import (Major Partners)

SRL Nsig Nsig Nsig 10.00% Nsig Nsig Nsig

The above table shows inter regional import trade relationship. From the table it is evident that except Pakistan, all the countries have import relationship with India and they are quite significant. Bangladesh imports 14.70% of its total import from India and in fact India is the highest import partner of Bangladesh. Same thing goes for most of the countries. So from the above two tables it is evident that though all the countries are not that much dependent to each other in terms of export, they are very much dependent on India terms of import. Since these countries are importing significant amount from India, it involves a transaction cost during currency conversion. So if a common currency can be introduced then, this transaction cost of currency convertibility can be eliminated and all the member countries will be benefited.

2.2.2 Comparative Analysis of Other Economic Indicators

The inflation rate of the South Asian countries is quite unstable. Instead of being members of a common region, their inflation rates do not follow the similar trend. The only exception is India where the inflation rate is almost stable for the last few years. No wonder, India has the highest GDP among the SAARC countries, as it possesses the largest population as well as largest' country size and resources. The GDP growth rate of the seven SAARC countries during the period 1994 - 2013 lacks steadiness. Although, India and Bhutan show a stable growth rate in GDP, other countries suffer from significant fluctuations. Specially, Nepal and Sri Lanka had an experience' of negative growth rate and Pakistan had its least growth of 1.0% in 1997 from 4.8% in 1996. All the seven SAARC countries have trade deficit. Taking the individual country size, population and the deficit trade amount under consideration, we see that Pakistan has shown a better performance in the last few years of that period. Obviously India and Bhutan have the largest and lowest trade deficit respectively because of their population size. The foreign reserve amount of India has a steady growth since 1994. India experienced a sharp increase in reserve fund from 2002. Opposite scenario is found for Sri Lanka. It had a decreasing trend from the year 1994 to 2000, and afterwards the reserve has been increasing gradually. Pakistan had a very much fluctuating reserve condition up to the year- 2000. Then it has started increase its reserve significantly. Bangladesh had satisfactory reserve in 1994 and then reserve went through some fluctuations up to 2001. Since then, Bangladesh has been increasing its reserve amount. And by now Bangladesh has an oversized foreign reserve. At the end, by observing all the relevant economical features of the seven SAARC counties, we can come to a conclusion that these countries lack homogeneity. They differ from each other at a large scale in terms of inflation rate, GDP growth rate, trade balance and foreign exchange reserve.
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2.2.3 Comparision of Intra-regional Trade in Different Regions

When Saarc was formed in 1985, it was expected that the intra-regional trade would increase. It is evident in Table 3 that the intra-regional trade in South Asia is the lowest compared to other regional area. Despite Sapta and the Safta agreement, the intra-Saarc trade has been low, indicating Saarc wasnt able to meet the objectives of its formation.

Table 3: Trends in intra-regional group trade (% of total trade)

2.2.4 Importance of Increasing Intra regional Trade

Most of the SAARC economies are moderately open (the ration of total trade to GDP is 4050%), except Maldives and Bhutan where it is more than 100% of GDP. Most SAARC economies are small (except India), and their exports go to other parts of the world which make them susceptible to external shocks. Regional shocks are also important for the potential member countries, especially for the small economies. Since most of the SAARC member countries are small open economies (except India), the regional shocks would have a significant impact on the feasibility assessment of OCA. It is found these shocks are asymmetric, suggesting that the Saarc countries are yet to ready for a common currency. Also, there is not a significant amount of labour mobility across these countries.

Table 4: Intra-regional trade share of South Asias total trade (%)

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Table 4 also shows very tiny volume of intra-regional trade among Saarc countries in the past decades, which indicates these countries are not highly integrated. Although the formation of Saarc increases intra-Saarc trade slightly, there is no significant variation among the member countries. The intra-Saarc trade of Nepal is the high than any Saarc countries. India and Pakistan are the least trading with Saarc member countries. It is alleged that there is also significant illegal trades happened among these member countries. For example, the values of formal and informal trade between Bangladesh and India is roughly the same, while informal trade value is almost one-third of formal trade between India and Sri Lanka. The intra-regional trade of Saarc economies remains a tiny fraction of total trade, despite considerable liberalisation following the free trade agreement (Safta, 2006). Also, the Saarc countries are not politically integrated compared the pioneering regional block for single currency, EU. Thus, the lower share of intra-regional trade, the lower degree of factor mobility, lack of political integration, lower degree of intra-regional trade would suggest that the desirability of introducing a common currency is not feasible across the Saarc countries. It is noted that the Indian contribution to Saarc GDP is around 80% over the past decades, which indicates a comparative advantage over other regional countries. Bangladesh never be a prime trade destination for India. The above statistics suggests that it will be a pragmatic move if the trade barriers with India are minimised rather than thinking to introduce a single currency with India. Then, we can observe how these policies works for reducing our trade deficits with India in the long run to proceed for the next steps. It will not be wise if we ignore the current euro crisis.

2.2.5 Common Currency before Economic Integration: Putting Car before the Bullock? The principal reason commonly advanced for a CCA in South Asia is that it would promote greater trade and economic integration in the region by reducing transaction costs and exchange rate uncertainty. However, having a common currency does not necessarily promote greater economic integration, nor does not having one prevent integration. Some of the most economically integrated countries, such as USA-Canada, Switzerland-EU and Australia-New Zealand have separate currencies. There are several examples in recent history of countries using US dollar as their currency. Some Central American and Pacific Island countries use (or used) US dollar as their official currency; but this did not greatly promote trade or economic integration with the USA or other dollar countries. European countries did not become substantially more integrated post-1999 (when Euro was accepted as a common currency) than they were before. In fact the common currency was arguably more an outcome, rather than a cause, of economic integration.

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2.2.6 A Closer Look on Common Currency payback for Bangladesh: Benefit or Buckle? An immediate implication of the adoption of a common currency in South Asia is that it will render individual monetary policies inoperable: a member country of a currency or monetary union cannot have an independent monetary policy. Nor can it have any exchange rate policy. An obvious corollary is that there will be no necessity for a central bank. Bangladesh Bank will cease to exist as it is; it may operate only as a sub-office of a South Asian central bank. Not having an independent monetary policy or currency may not always be undesirable. All those countries that have adopted a common currency obviously thought so. The desirability of a common currency sometimes arises from the incompetence (actual or suspected) of monetary authorities or excessive pressure on them from politicians for the adoption of harmful monetary policies. The principal attraction of a stable common currency from an academic point of view is that it avoids the credibility problem and thereby helps to anchor inflationary expectations. Except for the first three years of its existence, inflation has never been very high in Bangladesh. By no stretch of imagination can it be determined that Bangladesh Bank has conducted monetary policy so incompetently (or it has been subjected to such undue pressures) as to justify relieving it of the responsibility of formulating monetary policy altogether. More importantly, it is not reasonable to assume that a South Asian central bank will function more efficiently. The economic realities of South Asia are such that a common currency will in effect mean the Indian Rupee (and Reserve Bank of India will be the de facto South Asian central bank). This is suggested by the fact that Bhutan and Nepal already use Indian rupee alongside their own currencies. Currently, Indian GDP is about 80 percent of South Asian GDP. It is inconceivable that Pakistan will join a monetary union with India in the foreseeable future such that a South Asian monetary union can be established only by excluding Pakistan. In this event Indian share of the proposed unions GDP will rise above 90 percent. A currency union will mean the abolition of the currencies and the central banks of all countries and the formation of a South Asian central bank with a common currency. Each member country will perhaps have some representation in the central bank, but their voice will be mute since, unlike SAARC, decisions will be made by the weight of the economy. This may not necessarily be undesirable provided that the new central bank could be relied upon to perform efficiently and fairly on behalf of all the countries free of any interference from the Indian government. It is not sensible to assume so when the inflation record of India is worse or at least no better than that of Bangladesh (see Figure below) and it has at best indifferent relation with all the countries of the region.

Figure 1: Inflation rates of Bangladesh & India (Source: World Bank, Financial Indicators)

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2.2.7 A Visualization of the Predicaments for Bangladesh

If we suppose that the Indian economy is doing well its exports soaring, FDI flooding in and remittances rising. These would imply a substantial improvement in the balance of payments of the union and hence a strengthening of the common currency. Now further suppose that the Bangladesh economy is not doing as well; its export stagnant, FDI minimal and remittances modest. Hence, GDP growth of Bangladesh falters and unemployment rises. The normal policy response in such a situation in Bangladesh would be a monetary expansion to reduce interest rates and a depreciation of the domestic currency. However, none of these is feasible in the monetary union since neither money nor the exchange rate is controlled by Bangladesh. The only option then is to resort to fiscal expansion. The government could subsidize export or increase government expenditure on goods and services. Both these fiscal actions will work to raise employment. Since revenue earnings slow down with a declining GDP growth, the only way a fiscal expansion is possible is by borrowing either from the central bank or from domestic banks. Whether it can borrow from the central bank will depend on negotiations, but it is unlikely that the central bank that has the responsibility over the entire union will view a request for discount loans sympathetically since the union as a whole is experiencing a business boom. It would be rather cautious with monetary expansion lest it lets the inflation genie out of the bottle. So the government would have to borrow from the market. Whatever is the source of funds, public debt will mount, and with it the future debt servicing liabilities. If the situation persists for a while, national debt will become a serious fiscal burden and subsidization will become increasingly difficult. The current fiscal difficulties in some European countries should be a pointer. A fiscal expansion will encourage a rise in imports. With exports stagnant this will aggravate the balance of payments problem. Unless the situation reverses on its own, foreign debt will also mount with the attendant repayment difficulties. There is no easy way to resolve this contradiction under a monetary union except under the conditions discussed below. If workers in Bangladesh are free to move to other parts of the union when unemployment develops or if wages are flexible, the problem would resolve itself. With interest rates equalized across the union there would be little incentives for capital to move. Hence, the solution essentially lies in the free movement of labor, which works not by increasing employment but by exporting the unemployed labor force across the border. The economic difficulties could also be alleviated if there is fiscal integration within the union that permits transfer of union resources to the depressed region. In a South Asian monetary union it taxes imagination to assume that a significant number of people could move across the border. Nor is it likely that India would unilaterally transfer resources to Bangladesh to stimulate its depressed economy.

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2.2.8 Possible Gains for Bangladesh

1. Currently Bangladesh exporters and importers spend a lot money for buying and selling foreign currencies to do business in the SAARC region, especially with India. With a single currency they will save these costs and increase their profits. 2. Bangladesh nationals, while visiting other countries in the region, can leave back the worries for changing money and avoid the harassment at the hands of customs and immigration officials on both sides of the border on the pretext of foreign exchange regulations. 3. Due to elimination of the distorting effects of exchange rate differences it will be easier to compare the prices of goods, services and resources across the region. Businesses will be able to draw long-term plans and conduct their trade without exposing themselves to undue foreign exchange risks. 4. Similarly, foreign investors from the region will feel encouraged to invest in Bangladesh because of elimination of uncertainty associated with exchange rate fluctuations in the long run.

2.2.9 Possible Losses for Bangladesh

* If a single currency is introduced with all its concomitant adjuncts, the central bank will lose its independence to pursue monetary policy and to set interest and exchange rates in response to external and domestic shocks. It will also serve as a deterrent to conduct macro-economics policies to ensure full employment of human resources and productive capabilities. * Some economists argue that the trade and cost advantages of a single currency are grossly over-estimated. On the other hand, rigidities that it imposes may impair intraregional trade due to divergence of the factors of production, level of development and political and social ethos. * The rigours enjoined on the participating countries to surrender their power to a central authority, a sine qua non of a single currency area, could be a potent cause of concern and protests from the uninitiated multitudes who might consider it as an encroachment on the sovereignty of the country. * It is argued that an unelected body i.e. an independent central bank takes away the power to set the monetary targets, interest rates and budget deficits. It would encroach on the authority of democratically elected governments. True, the EU has opted to cede the power to the European Central Bank (ECB) because they have a bigger agenda to unite Europe to offset the preeminence of the USA, Japan and other rising economies.

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CHAPTER THREE: CONCLUSION

3.1 Findings
The detailed discussion on economic and political structure of SAARC nations and the analytical discussion of the economic indicators provide us with some findings on the report. Keeping benefits of and disadvantages of common currency in mind we found that: Small economies awash in debt in EURO while sounder export-driven economies going back on anti-immigrant sentiment, economic protectionism The most obvious costs arise from the loss of sovereign control over monetary and exchange rate policies A common currency becomes a liability in time of crisis if the currency region does not also have a common labor policy and a common fiscal policy But a common monetary and fiscal policy would be impossible in a region filled with sovereignty conscious nations Free movement of labor within South Asia might be possible if the member countries agree on a real economic union Fiscal transfers could be possible only if the member countries agree on a political union. the formation of Saarc increases intra-Saarc trade slightly, there is no significant variation among the member countries There has been no significant synchronization of economic cycles (as reflected in trends in GDP growth and inflation) among SAARC countries during 1980-2010. Safta has been handicapped by non-tariff barriers and immobility of factors of production mainly due to lack of political commitment and shortage of appropriate technical expertise to implement the agreement The conflicts and mistrusts among the other neighboring countries also continue to flourish with renewed intensity each of the South Asian states suffer from some kind of instability and consequently projects varying intensities of human deprivation Indian contribution to Saarc GDP is around 80% over the past decades, which indicates a comparative advantage over other regional countries Bhutan and Nepal already use Indian rupee alongside their own currencies. Without proper condition ,the Premature inception of a single currency will make South Asia to be regarded as an Indian backyard Common currency Gains would be mostly political and would be embedded in a larger process of rapprochement between India and Pakistan in particular.

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3.2 Recommendation
South Asian leaders owe it to their millions of poor citizens to become more pragmatic. Macroeconomic stability must be a priority. Regional trade must grow. International experience shows that quantity restrictions and tariff barriers only increase costs. With its large poor population, South Asia cannot afford to continue that. But economic liberalization can only proceed if there is political confidence. Striving toward a common currency remains a good idea, but for it to be taken seriously, the region must liberate its goods, services and people A common currency follows deepening trade, not the other way around, and such a currency needs a regional anchor. South Asia must facilitate greater intraregional trade, leading to a possible customs union, a common market, freer movement of people and then moves toward an economic union. The priority must be given to remove the obstacles to trade before attempting to address the peripheral issue of selecting a common currency. The first step that can be taken is to introduce a parallel currency and utilize that instrument effectively to promote regional cooperation in trade and investment, which can eventually prepare the ground for a common currency. The parallel currency will be fully convertible into any international currency and will be fully backed by reserve fund. It will be legal tender for cross country transactions within South Asia and will be increasingly used as unit of account for trade and investment transactions within the region. The issue of stability of the parallel currency will of course be important. South Asian countries can create a pool of foreign exchange reserves in an institution. Backed with these reserves, the parallel currency, equivalent of a multiple of basic reserves, can be created to be used for giving loans or buying bonds issued by South Asian governments or corporations as appropriate. The lending rates on these loans will be higher than the interest paid on reserves which will be higher than what most reserves banks in the region are getting today from their dollar reserves. As the parallel currency gets accepted the reserve fund can earn profits, which will be distributed among members as grants for development purposes. Provision of regional public goods and concessionary assistance for the lagging regions will help to build confidence in the region and facilitate bolder programmers such as open borders, labor mobility and common currency. The manner in which the bigger countries in Europe won the confidence of the smaller countries and helped to accelerate development of lagging will be a model for South Asia to learn from. SAARC Summit could take steps to set up a Working Group comprising of Central Bank Governors to evaluate; the feasibility of the proposal and take it forward. It should be understood that if South Asian countries form a monetary union, they would have unleashed unpredictable and irresistible forces that would push them toward either an eventual political union or a chaotic dissolution of the monetary union. Hence, any monetary unification measure must be taken consciously, transparently and deliberately; it must not be advanced ignorantly, hurriedly or surreptitious
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3.3 CONCLUSION

The formation of SAARC was a landmark step taken by the leaders of the region. The main rational behind was to develop a friendly environment through summit diplomacy where all nations could interact peacefully with each other, cultivate sustainable peace and promote mutual economic well being by harnessing available resources in the region through the process of economic integration. Nevertheless, after 20 years' of establishment, neither South Asian nations have been able to push the process of integration into full swing nor the organization itself has become viable that could promote peace and harmony or prevent conflicts in the region. South Asia has emerged as a regional entity in the international political system with the creation of SAARC but it failed to strengthen regional cohesiveness. Regional cooperation in South Asia cannot be said to have evolved into a complete bloc in terms of regionalism and economic integration due mainly to the prevalence of conflict over the desire of peace and stability. Hence right at this moment, SAARC countries have to improve their relationships and attitudes t o w a r d s each other and they need to take initiatives to eliminate the existing conflicts among them. In order to introduce a common currency in the region, economical homogeneity is the prime factor, which has some deficiencies in the SAARC countries. Any move towards introducing a common currency for SAARC countries in recent time will not be viable unless a good neighborly relationship and economic homogeneity in the region are achieved.

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REFERENCE 1. Mundell R. (2002). Does Asia need a common currency, Pacific Economic Review, Blackwell Publishers Ltd. pp 3-12 2. Rajesh M. (June 12,2002). South Asia could benefit from commom currency. Business Line. 3. Saxena S. C. (2004). Can South Asia Adopt A Common Currency. 4. Chowdhury A. (2007). Prospects and possibilities of introducing a common currency in SAARC countries 5. www.adb.org 6. www.saarcchamber.org

Appendix Table-1: Inflation Rate Country 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Bangladesh 3.30 8.90 6.70 2.50 7.00 8.90 3.40 1.60 2.40 5.10 7.00 9.50 8.80 6.50 10.60 6.80 4.00 3.40 2.50 1.60 Bhutan 10.20 10.20 9.00 7.20 13.20 4.70 4.00 3.90 4.10 4.00 India 3.40 5.50 6.20 7.50 -1.40 3.00 -1.20 0.70 0.90 -2.90 Maldives 9.00 7.60 8.10 8.10 8.30 11.40 3.50 2.40 2.90 4.80 Nepal 11.20 13.10 10.70 11.80 7.80 5.70 3.60 4.40 3.50 3.10 Pakistan 8.40 7.70 15.90 9.60 9.40 4.70 6.20 14.20 9.60 6.30 Sri Lanka

2013

Table-2: GDP at current market Price ($) Country 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Bangladesh 33.670 37.870 39.800 41.170 42.680 44.760 45.470 45.430 47.190 51.690 Bhutan 0.274 0.310 0.333 0.394 0.403 0.445 0.488 0.536 0.598 India 322.809 366.364 386.138 419.281 421.961 449.846 464.936 483.644 508.033 591.455 Maldives 0.343 0.399 0.434 0.484 0.529 0.570 0.595 0.591 0.600 0.647 Nepal 4.034 4.224 4.391 4.836 4.560 5.012 5.338 5.481 5.422 5.959 Pakistan 51.072 58.968 58.765 59.442 59.442 59.360 70.709 67.219 73.701 83.483 Sri Lanka 11.720 12.924 13.897 15.795 15.795 15.657 16.332 15.746 16.544 18.237

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Table-3: Annual Percentage Change in GDP Country 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Bangladesh 4.10 4.90 4.60 5.40 5.20 4.90 5.90 5.30 4.40 5.30 Bhutan 6.10 7.40 5.20 7.20 6.40 7.70 5.50 7.10 6.70 6.60 India 7.30 7.30 7.80 4.80 6.50 6.10 4.40 5.80 4.00 8.10 Maldives 7.50 7.40 9.10 10.40 9.80 7.20 4.80 3.40 6.50 8.40 Nepal 8.60 3.30 5.30 5.30 2.90 4.50 6.10 4.70 -0.60 3.70 Pakistan 3.70 5.00 4.80 1.00 2.60 3.70 4.30 1.90 3.20 5.10 S r i La n ka 5.60 5.50 4.00 6.40 4.70 4.30 6.00 -1.50 4.00 5.60

Table-4: Trade Balance (ml US$) Country 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Bangladesh -1657.0 -2361.0 -3063.0 -2113.0 -1669.0 -1934.0 -1865.0 -2011.0 -1708.0 2207.0 Bhutan -29.5 -27.3 -13.2 -32.0 -24.8 -57.6 -70.7 -96.8 -82.9 -75.9 India -7224.0 -10724.0 -14644.0 -14747.0 -15660.0 -13673.0 -17882.0 -12747.0 -12041.0 Maldives -119.6 -150.8 -185.6 -214.5 -215.9 -262.4 -233.3 -236.1 -212.4 -258.0 Nepal -796.4 -922.3 -989.8 -1244.9 -994.5 -765.3 -851.0 -814.3 -787.8 -958.9 Pakistan -2000.0 -2537.0 -3704.0 -3145.0 -1867.0 -2085.0 -1412.0 -1269.0 -294.0 -444.0 S r i -1558.0 -1504.0 -1344.0 -1225.0 -1091.0 -1369.2 1797.5 -1157.5 -1406.5 -1539.0 Table-5: International Reserve (ml US $) Country 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Bangladesh 3165.9 2366.6 1862.6 1606.7 1927.7 1623.3 1515.6 1305.7 1722.4 2624.2 Bhutan 115.2 124.3 184.0 181.2 249.7 274.4 295.3 284.7 320.6 315.8 India 23053.0 21591.0 23784.0 27568.0 29833.0 35069.0 40155.0 48200.0 70377.0 102260.0 Maldives 31.3 48.0 76.8 99.0 118.5 127.1 122.8 93.1 133.1 159.5 Nepal 700.1 592.9 577.8 632.7 762.7 851.5 951.9 1044.2 1024.1 1558.9 Pakistan 3721.0 2453.0 1238.0 1830.0 1646.0 2054.0 2056.0 4235.0 8762.0 11674.0 S r i La n ka 2051.7 2093.7 1966.5 2028.6 1983.9 1639.3 1042.5 1289.8 1705.1 Table-6: Exchange Rate (per US $) Country 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Bangladesh 40.212 40.278 41.794 43.892 46.906 49.085 52.142 55.807 57.888 58.150 Bhutan 314.374 32.427 35.433 36.313 41.259 43.055 44.942 47.186 48.610 46.581 India 31.373 32.427 35.433 36.313 41.259 43.055 44.941 47.186 48.610 46.580 Maldives 11.586 11.770 11.770 11.770 11.770 11.770 11.770 12.242 12.800 12.800 Nepal 49.398 51.890 56.692 58.010 65.976 68.239 71.094 74.949 77.877 76.141 Pakistan 30.566 31.642 36.078 41.111 45.046 49.501 53.648 61.927 59.723 57.752 Sri Lanka 49.415 51.252 55.271 58.995 64.450 70.635 77.005 89.383 95.662 96.521

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