Tp ch Khoa hc v Cng ngh bin T12 (2012). S 1.

Tr 10 - 16
TC NG CA NC BIN DNG N CH THY TRIU DC B
BIN VIT NAM
TRN THC, DNG HNG SN

Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng

Tm tt: Cc c trng ca ch thy triu vng ven b c hnh thnh bi s cng
hng ca cc sng triu thin vn truyn t bin khi vo vng nc nng di tc ng ca
a hnh theo phng ngang (quy m thy vc) v phng thng ng ( su). Nh vy,
nc bin dng do bin i kh hu m lm thay i su v quy m ca bin s dn ti
thay i cc c trng thy triu. M hnh ROMS (Regional Oceanography Modeling System)
c s dng nghin cu tc ng ca nc bin dng n ch thy triu dc b
bin Vit Nam. M hnh c kim nh vi ch thy triu hin ti v m phng vi cc
kch bn nc bin dng ton cu l 0.5m, 0.75m v 1.0 m.

I. GII THIU
Dao ng mc nc thy triu ti cc
vng bin ven b l s cng hng ca
cc sng di hnh thnh do lc hp dn
ca mt trng v mt tri truyn vo vng
ven b di tc ng ca iu kin a
hnh i phng (theo c phng ngang
v phng thng ng). Vo mt thi
im trong tng lai, di tc ng ca
bin i kh hu, mc nc trung bnh Hnh 1: Thay i cc c trng thy triu
di tc ng ca NBD
ton cu c th dng ln 1.0m so vi hin
ti th mc nc trung bnh ca cc khu
vc khc nhau trn i dng th gii khng ging nhau do thay i ca cc hon lu,
nhit v mui. ng thi, qu trnh cng hng sng di cng thay i so vi hin
ti do su tng thm khong 1m v nht l, theo phng ngang, kch thc cc vng
bin c xu hng tng ln. Hnh 1 m t mt v d v mc nc triu cao nht vng A
ch tng 0.8m trong khi tng ti 1.2 m vng B so vi hin ti. Nghin cu ny s s
dng H thng M hnh Hi dng hc Khu vc (ROMS) nh gi tc ng ca cc
kch bn NBD ln ch thy triu dc b bin Vit Nam.

10

II.

S LIU

S liu a hnh ETOPO2v2 c phn gii 2' x 2' phin bn 2006 c s dng
trong tnh ton. Min tnh c chia thnh 355 x 472 li v 12 lp theo phng thng
ng. su ln nht l trn 8000 m v nh nht c ly l 10m (Hnh 2).
iu kin ban u c xy dng t Atlas
Bin ton cu (WOA). Ti mi lp theo
phng thng ng m khng c s liu,
gi tr tnh ton theo phng php phn
tch khch quan c s dng. Ma trn
cui cng theo phng nm ngang v
thng ng c ni suy ph hp vi li
ta sigma. Vi cc bin lng c thy
triu, cc thnh phn thy triu (mc nc
v dng triu) c tnh t m hnh thy
triu TPXO7.1.
m phng cc iu kin thi tit
bin ti nhng thi im c th trong qu
kh hoc tng lai, s liu xy dng
iu kin bin v iu kin ban u c
khai thc t cc m hnh M hnh Hon
lu Bin Ton cu (OGCM). S liu kh
Hnh 2: a hnh Bin ng v ln cn
tng gm tc gi b mt ti cao
10m, ng sut gi, thng lng nhit b mt, nhit , mui b mt bin, bc x sng
ngn l cc ngoi lc tc ng ln khi nc v c trch t B S liu Tng hp Kh
quyn - i dng (COADS).
III. PHN TCH KT QU
Trc khi a cc kch bn NBD vo iu kin ban u v iu kin bin m
phng tc ng ca NBD ti dao ng thy triu, ROMS c hiu chnh v kim nghim
m bo rng cc tham s chn la l ph hp. Hai giai on tnh ton l: thng 9
nm 2005 v thng 11 nm 2006. y cng chnh l cc thi im c bo hot ng trn
Bin ng.
Cc thng s ca cc cn bo tham kho t website ca UNISYS WEATHER

11

thng c cc bc thi gian khng u ph thuc vo s liu thc t (c th 3, 6 hoc 12

gi) nn cc tham s bo (qu o, p sut tm bo,v.v.) c ni suy tuyn tnh c th
ci vo cc trng ngoi lc c bc thi gian u (3 gi). Hnh 3 v 4 trnh by so snh
kt qu tnh ton v mc nc thc o ti cc trm Hn Du v Vng Tu.

Hnh 3: So snh mc nc bin ti Hn Du

Hnh 4: So snh mc nc bin ti Vng Tu

Hnh 5: Thay i mc nc trung bnh nm theo cc kch bn NBD

12

Bng 1: So snh hng s iu ha 32 sng gia tnh ton v o c

ti Hn Du v Vng Tu
Sng

HD-Bin (m)
M
phng

o c

HD-Gc pha (O)

M
phng

o c

VT-Bin (m)
M
phng

o c

VT-Gc pha (O)

M
phng

o c

MSF

0.1208

0.0381

49.58

53.17

0.1076

0.0193

61.35

94.37

*2Q1

0.0635

0.068

135.60

245.63

0.0129

0.0402

212.55

200.82

*Q1

0.1176

0.2425

290.62

125.95

0.103

0.136

180.12

9.08

*O1

0.6303

1.2648

300.95

324.67

0.5708

0.6935

190.40

199.01

*NO1

0.043

0.0465

192.84

119.47

0.0376

0.0166

61.25

13.38

*P1

0.1951

0.1766

8.57

96.99

0.234

0.1508

251.72

321.88

*K1

0.5896

0.5336

1.50

89.92

0.7071

0.4557

244.65

314.81

*J1

0.0197

0.0653

317.76

301.54

0.0219

0.0539

237.60

151.03

*OO1

0.0168

0.1029

83.07

278.74

0.0226

0.0656

349.10

104.94

UPS1

0.0011

0.0245

216.07

259.16

0.0071

0.0122

208.22

197.72

*N2

0.0171

0.0053

174.64

169.55

0.1291

0.1626

154.23

149.41

*M2

0.0961

0.0491

200.09

347.42

0.7367

0.7538

185.41

347.00

*S2

0.0656

0.0999

236.42

234.77

0.3326

0.4976

210.49

226.35

*K2

0.0178

0.0272

258.82

257.17

0.0905

0.1354

232.89

248.75

ETA2

0.0032

0.0141

276.18

12.81

0.0122

0.0493

257.07

327.69

MO3

0.0141

0.0434

272.23

169.70

0.0496

0.0526

291.10

36.00

M3

0.0073

0.005

43.44

358.48

0.0092

0.0033

320.95

260.46

MK3

0.0149

0.0136

274.48

311.02

0.0257

0.0243

49.93

177.72

*SK3

0.0276

0.017

135.00

259.89

0.0362

0.0239

40.97

102.65

MN4

0.0048

0.0078

355.69

271.24

0.0092

0.005

288.12

12.08

M4

0.0196

0.0034

271.20

13.02

0.0398

0.011

299.97

212.06

MS4

0.0108

0.0051

293.92

335.64

0.0175

0.0112

348.52

94.38

0.009

0.0035

179.44

201.62

0.0048

0.0037

58.42

329.82

2MK5

0.0041

0.0098

113.97

233.21

0.003

0.0026

132.40

211.97

2SK5

0.0026

0.0128

87.61

184.59

0.0007

0.0054

56.76

344.89

2MN6

0.0038

0.0039

314.93

274.97

0.0028

0.0013

200.43

130.90

*M6

0.0131

0.005

6.98

40.58

0.0068

0.0044

292.08

37.86

*2MS6

0.018

0.0061

70.04

8.90

0.0099

0.0067

317.24

287.15

*2SM6

0.0077

0.0031

143.54

275.35

0.0034

0.0031

334.24

134.88

3MK7

0.0009

0.0053

314.93

184.33

0.0023

0.0009

182.24

316.73

M8

0.0005

0.0022

51.96

306.12

0.0017

0.0011

19.08

136.46

*M10

0.0011

0.001

56.79

296.63

0.0016

0.001

90.44

254.19

S4

13

Kt qu tnh ton v pha dao ng mc nc tng hp kh ph hp vi s liu thc

o, tuy nhin v bin thy triu, sai s bnh phng trung bnh (RMS) ti Hn Du (37
cm) tuy nh hn Vng Tu (49 cm) nhng vn cn kh ln. Kt qu nghin cu ca
Nguyn Xun Dng (2010) cho thy vi phn gii mn hn cho kt qu tt tt hn.
Phn tch iu ha mc nc bin c th cung cp nhng thng tin hu ch v c
ch thy ng lc hc cng nh s phn ng ca bin ti cc lc to triu. S lng cc
thnh phn sng triu c th c xc nh ph thuc vo di chui s liu s dng.
Cn c vo kh nng tc ng nh ca cc thnh phn sng di ti kt qu m phng ngn
hn, s liu m phng 1 thng thng phn tch cc thnh phn sng ngn. Chng
trnh T_tide ca Pawlowicz v nnk (2002) c s dng phn tch iu ha.
Kt qu tnh ton cho c thng 9 nm 2005 c trnh by trong bng 1. Ti trm
Vng Tu cc thnh phn bn nht triu chim u th so vi cc thnh phn nht triu
trong khi ti Hn Du, cc thnh phn bn nht triu khng ng k. Kt qu tnh ton kh
ph hp vi thc o v bin ca tt c cc sng ngoi tr O1 ti Hn Du: bin tnh
ton khong 1,26m trong khi thc o l 0,63m. Kt qu cng cho thy s sai khc ng k
v pha ca cc sng Q1 ti Hn Du v Q1, M2 ti Vng Tu. su ti im tnh ton
Hn Du l 10,57m v Vng Tu l 10,00m. Sai s theo phng ngang ( phn gii ca
li tnh khong 17 km) v theo phng thng ng ( su trong ETOPO2 tnh theo mt)
gia v tr trm trong li tnh v v tr thc t c th l mt nguyn nhn c bn dn ti
sai s khi so snh s liu thc o vi kt qu tnh ton bng m hnh.
nh gi vai tr ca NBD ln dao ng thy triu vng ven bin Vit Nam ni
ring v vng Bin ng ni chung, ton b qu trnh tnh ton trn c tin hnh tip vi
cc iu kin sau: (1) Thi gian m phng ko di 1 nm; (2) a nh hng ca NBD do
bin i kh hu vo qu trnh tnh ton (Thay gi tr mc nc ban u v bin bng cc gi
tr tng ng vi cc kch bn 0,5m, 0,75m v 1,0m); v (3) Gi thit rng tc ng ca bin
i kh hu ti dao ng mc nc triu ch thng qua mc nc trung bnh.
Kt qu thay i mc nc trung bnh nm theo cc kch bn so vi hin trng c
th hin trong hnh 5 v bng 2. Tng cng c 52 im c tnh ton trong nghin cu
ny: 10 trm hi vn ven b c s liu quan trc trn 20 nm, 15 im ti 7 ca sng
chnh, 20 im cch nhau khong 100 km dc b bin Vit Nam v mt s im ti cc
o v eo bin Quc t bao quanh bin ng. Nhn chung, xu th bin i mc nc trung
bnh ti cc khu vc tng i ng nht: tng hoc gim c 3 kch bn NBD.

14

Bng 2: Kt qu tnh ton thay i mc nc trung bnh nm theo cc kch bn NBD

Trm C T

Trm

V
21

Kinh
107.7

KB3
1.16

KB2
0.90

KB1
0.63

Trm Bi Chy

20.9

107.6

1.16

0.89

0.62

Trm Hn Du

20.6

106.7

1.14

0.87

0.59

Trm Hn Ng

18.8

105.8

1.12

0.83

0.55

Trm Cn C

17.2

107.4

0.99

0.74

0.49

Trm Sn Tr

16.1

108.3

0.89

0.67

0.43

Trm Quy Nhn

13.3

109.4

0.65

0.41

0.15

Trm Ph Qu

10.5

108.9

1.09

0.77

0.47

Trm Vng Tu

10.3

107

0.98

0.68

0.42

Sng Bch ng

20.9

107

1.13

0.88

0.65

Sng Thi Bnh

20.6

106.7

1.16

0.89

0.61

Ca Ba Lt

20.3

106.6

1.12

0.86

0.60

20

106.2

1.10

0.82

0.54

Sng C

18.8

105.8

1.11

0.83

0.55

Sng Thu Bn

15.9

108.4

0.85

0.61

0.37

Sng Thi Vi

10.3

107

0.98

0.69

0.42

Sng Nh B

10.4

107

0.97

0.69

0.43

Sng Ca Tiu

10.3

106.8

0.90

0.59

0.35

Sng Ca i

Sng Ninh C

10.2

106.8

0.92

0.62

0.36

Sng Ba Lai

10

106.7

0.95

0.65

0.39

Sng Hm Lung

10

106.7

0.96

0.65

0.39

Ca Cung Ha

9.8

106.6

0.90

0.62

0.42

Sng Hu
Trng Sa
Ph Quc
Vinh Thi Lan
Taiwan - Philipines
Singapore-Indonesia

9.5
10
9.9
10
21
2

106.3
114
103.9
102
120.5
106.5

1.12
0.99
1.07
1.08
1.04
1.10

0.78
0.73
0.80
0.79
0.85
0.79

0.46
0.38
0.55
0.54
0.59
0.46

IV.

KT LUN

Nu ch xt n yu t a hnh v ch triu th nc bin dng ton cu s c nh

hng khc nhau i vi cc vng bin khc nhau ca Vit Nam. Nghin cu ny cho
thy ch ring thay i su vng thm lc a theo cc kch bn nc bin dng c
th lm thay i bin thy triu dc b bin Vit Nam ti 20%. Tc ng ca s thay
i kch thc ngang vng thm lc a ti ch thy triu v s dch chuyn phn b
cc c trng triu cn c tin hnh trong cc nghin cu tip theo.

15

TI LIU THAM KHO

1.

B Ti nguyn v Mi trng, 2009. Kch bn bin i kh hu, nc bin dng

cho Vit Nam.

2.

Vin Khoa hc Kh tng Thy vn v Mi trng, 2010. Bo co tng kt d n

Cc kch bn nc bin dng v kh nng gim thiu ri ro Vit Nam.

3.

Dng Hng Sn, 2009. Pht trin cc kch bn nc bin dng v la chn
tnh/vng nghin cu th im, Bo co thnh phn ca D n.

4.

Hinton, A.C., (1997). Tidal changes. Progress in Physical Geography September

1997 21: 425-433.

5.

Ferla, M., Cordella, M., Michielli, L., Rusconia, A., 2007. Long-term variations
on sea level and tidal regime in the lagoon of Venice. Estuarine coastal and shelf
science Print (2007) Volume: 75, Issue: 1, Publisher: Elsevier, Pages: 214-222.

6.

Shchepetkin, A. F., and J. C. McWilliams, 2003. A method for computing

horizontal pressure-gradient force in an oceanic model with a nonaligned vertical
coordinate, J. Geophys. Res., 108(C3), p. 3090.

7.

Uehara, K. and Saito, Y., 2003. Late quaternary evolution of the yellow/east china
sea tidal regime and its impacts on sediments dispersal and seafloor morphology.
Sedimentary Geology, Volume 162, Issues 1-2, Pages 25-38: Climate Impact on
Sedimentary Systems.
THE IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON TIDAL REGIME ALONG
THE COAST OF VIETNAM
TRAN THUC, DUONG HONG SON
Summary: The characteristics of the tidal regime in coastal areas are formed by the
resonance of the astronomical tidal waves transmitted from the ocean in shallow water under
the action of horizontal terrain (scale water bodies) and the straight vertical (depth). Thus,
sea level rise due to climate change that would alter the depth and scale of the ocean will lead
to changes in tidal characteristics. The ROMS model (Regional Oceanography Modeling
System) was used to study the impact of sea level rise on tidal regime along the coast of
Vietnam. The model was validated by using tidal current regime, and used to simulate for the
cases of global sea level rise scenarios of 0.5m, 0.75m and 1.0 m.

Ngy nhn bi: 01 - 5 - 2011

Ngi nhn xt: TS. Nguyn K Phng

16