Climate Adaptation:

Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-Making

Dr. Robert Willows

Environmental Forecasting Manager

National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Policy Sequestration

Climate Change Uncertainty Uncertainty Emissions Climate Variability

Policy

Policy

Tools
Risk Analysis Forecast Models Options Appraisal Policy Analysis Uncertainty Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Impacts

Energy Supply

-ve
Adaptation Uncertainty

Energy Demand

Policy

Scenarios

Uncertainty Economic and Social Issues and Development

Scenarios Policy

Uncertainty

Policy

National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Study objectives
Help identify climate-sensitive decisions Help achieve better decisions Provides guidance on the use of tools and techniques Should provide generic guidance on climate risks Consistent with DETR guidelines for Environmental Risk Assessment (Greenleaves 2)
Decision/ Policy makers

Science

UKCIP Technical Report

Part 1 : A review of
Risk and uncertainty
Decision-making under uncertainty Risk-based climate impact assessment
Climate Adaptation: Risk, Uncertainty and Decision Making

Part 2 : Framework and Guidance

Stage by Stage guidance to support the process of undertaking risk-based appraisal of climate influenced decisions

National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Decision Making Framework

Climate change issue Climate change policy Identify problem Establish criteria for decision-making Monitor Climate change scenarios Risk assessment Implement decision Vulnerability assessment Socio-economic scenarios Climate change research, monitoring

Data information collection Impact assessment

Options appraisal Make decision No No

Identify options Adaptation strategies

Climate change application

Yes

Problem defined correctly ? Yes

Objectives met ?

Climate change policy

Risk = Hazard * Consequence

HAZARD PATHWAY RECEPTOR Consequences
C2.1 Climate C1.1 C3.1 C1.2 C1.3 C3.2 C4.1 Decision Criteria

Non-Climate

National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Hazard Risk and Uncertainty

1

Probability (cumulative)

0
Small

?
Large

Magnitude
National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Risk and Uncertainty

High High Risk

Hazard

Low

Low Risk
Large

Small

Consequence
National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Risk and Uncertainty

good
Ambiguity Quantitative Risk

Knowledge of Hazard
Ignorance of risk poor Uncertainty of likelihood

poor

good

Knowledge of Consequence

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Risk Prioritisation Temporally-dynamic risks

High

Higher priority Past or Present risk

Low Low

Act sooner

Rate of change of risk or future risk

High

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Climate sensitive decisions

Large Significance of climate change or climate variable(s)

Climate adaptation decisions

Moderate

Climate influenced decisions

None

Climate independent decisions

None

Moderate

Large

Significance of non-climate factors or non-climate variable(s)

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Decision errors?
Large
Perceived importance of factors
Actual Importance of factors

Climate factors

Over-adaptation

Under-adaptation

Actual Importance of factors

None None Moderate Large

Perceived importance of factors

Non-climate factors

Perceived importance of factors

Mis-adaptation

Actual Importance of factors

Actual importance of factors

Mal-adaptation

Perceived importance of factors

National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Adaptation strategies under Uncertainty

Optimistic The option the may produce the best adaptation outcome The option associated with the most favourable of the least favourable possible outcomes That option associated with the lowest lost opportunities or regret The best adaptation option under all possible outcomes MaxiMax

Precautionary
Risk Averse

MaxiMin

Least Regret

MiniMax Regret

No-regret

National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Generic options for climate risk management

Wider use of risk assessment, forecasts and options appraisal preferably proactive technical response

Delay and buy-time proactive technical response to reduce uncertainty

Research e.g. modelling, technology, adaptive capacity Monitoring system performance monitoring - proactive technical response climate impact monitoring - reactive technical response Data and information supply, and education, awareness raising proactive and reactive Contingency planning low probability, high consequence events strategic planning response

National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Generic options for climate risk management

Diversification or bet-hedging proactive technical or policy response Insurance proactive, fiscal response Defend and Manage - reactive technical measures Change of use proactive or reactive, planning response +/- technical measures Retreat and Abandon strategic planning response Safety factors, climate headroom, buffering measures technical and regulatory response

National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Decision Making Framework

Climate change issue Climate change policy Identify problem Establish criteria for decision-making Monitor Climate change scenarios Risk assessment Implement decision Vulnerability assessment Socio-economic scenarios Climate change research, monitoring

Data information collection Impact assessment

Options appraisal Make decision No No

Identify options Adaptation strategies

Climate change application

Yes

Problem defined correctly ? Yes

Objectives met ?

Climate change policy

Risk screening - climate variable checklist

Helps to both identify (Table 1) and define the different characteristics (Table 2) of potentially significant or relevant climate variables
Includes preliminary assessment of sensitivity and confidence Useful for screening of variables Not constrained by availability of climate forecast variables (e.g. from GCMs or RCMs) Encourages rigorous analysis of climate influence Table 1 is not complete - proxy and compound variables will depend on nature of particular assessment

National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Climate variable checklist

Types of variables
Examples

Primary
Synoptic Compound Proxy

CO2, sea-level, temperature, precipitation, wind, cloud cover

Weather types, pressure, storm track, lightning Humidity, evapotranspiration, mist, fog, growth season Soil Moisture, river flow, wave climate

National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Climate variable checklist

Characteristics of variables
Examples Magnitude and Direction Increase, decrease, rate of change Statistic Averaging period Joint probability events and variables
Average, time-integrated, variability and frequency Instantaneous ... hourly . Annual ..decadal Consecutive, coincident or joint occurrence, correlation

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(Climate) Influence diagrams

Global temperature Mean water level Land level

Climate
Tides Atmospheric pressure

Rainfall, freeze/thaw, wave damage, animal activity, vegetation

Changes to structure

Surges

Wind speed direction Everyday wave climate

Extreme water level climate

Extreme wave climate Beach morphology

Water level Structure

Flood event
Overtop Breach Flood

Waves Beach state

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Describing confidence ..
Quantitative probabilistic descriptor P > 95% Subjective descriptor Hazard Certainty Highly probable Very likely Likely to Probable Certain, Known Reliable Confident Theoretical basis or model Established, Validated model Processbased model, underpinned by some theory Black box and Simulation models Statistical models Fuzzy models Concepts and definitions Information or data Experimental Peer acceptance Absolute Colleague acceptance All but cranks All but rebels Pedigree rank score 4

75% < P < 95%

Historical or Observation

High

25% < P < 75%

Possible

Plausible Debatable

Calculated

Medium

Different schools

5% < P < 25%

Unlikely to Improbable

Not confident Uncertain Doubtful

Educated or expert guess

Low

New field

P < 5%

Impossible

Uneducated or nonexpert guess

None

No opinion

National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Downscaling 1

Space: GCM site

Time: Monthly daily

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SDSM - Statistical Down-Scaling Model

(Rob Wilby, Kings College London)

Daily data - observed data at site Model - site data and large-scale data from GCM Scenario - generate ensembles of daily time series
Maximum daily rainfall (mm)
30

25

Observed Modelled Scenario

rainfall (mm)

20

15 10

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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Downscaling - Flood return period prediction

1860 climate 2000 climate 2090 climate

National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Scenario analysis and risk assessment

Q. Can we create scenarios which reflect changes in variability as well as the mean? A. YES - but it is difficult and scenarios remain contingent on assumptions and non-quantified uncertainties Q. Can we assign probabilities to different scenarios? A. Probably. Expert judgement can be used to assign probability to the range encompassed by any two scenarios but uncertainty components within suite of scenarios have to be well-posed

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Estimating probabilities of different futures

We typically use a small number of scenarios

If we make assumptions about the likelihood of different emissions futures, use many more climate models, and incorporate the effects of natural climatic variability, we can generate many more scenarios

National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Incorporating climate change into water resources management

The future hydrological resource base will not be the same as the present resource base Mean climate will be different, due to climate change and natural climatic variability Variability in climate will be different. Altered frequency of successive dry years?

.but we dont know how different.

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Influence diagrams - water resource management

land use change

management objectives

demand

Supply-side baseline data

hydrological model

water resources model

Demand-side

reliability

Climate change

adaptive response

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Use of socio-economic scenarios

35

000s of Ml/d

30 25 20 15 10
March 2001

Water resources for the future

A STRATEGY FOR ENGLAND AND WALES

5 0 1997/98

Forecast demand in 2025

National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Coping with uncertainty

1. Flexible management approaches

- review situation and adjust plans if appropriate

- continued monitoring

2.

Improved seasonal forecasts

- based on understanding of causes of seasonal climatic variability

3.

Scenario analysis and risk assessment

National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal

Conclusions and recommendations (for decision-makers)

Emphasis on understanding impact of present-day observed climate variability

Future climate change is only one source of decision uncertainty

Assessment of climate risk should be hierarchical /tiered Climate adaptation should be iterative Assumptions and sources of uncertainty should be treated explicitly in risk and impact assessments in order to reach robust decisions
National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal