Phn tch t gi la/ng

Th 5 , ngy 12 thng 10 nm 2006

Nhng nm qua, Ngn hng nh nc (NHNN) rt thnh cng trong vic iu hnh chnh sch t gi
hi oi. Trong khi gi tr cc ng tin so vi la M thay i tht thng th t gi USD/VND vn
lun n nh. iu ny khng nhng gp phn vo s n nh h thng ti chnh trong nc m cn to ra
s n nh mi trng kinh t nht l xut khu.
NHNN ang p dng chnh sch t gi th ni nhng c s iu tit ca Nh nc. K t nm 1999,
NHNN duy tr mt bin bin ng hng ngy l +/-0,25% so vi ng la. NHNN can thip vo
th trng ch yu thng qua cc hot ng trn th trng m.
Nm 2000 v 2001, vi chnh sch khuyn khch xut khu, tin ng (VND) b nh trt gi kh
mnh so vi ng la, ln lt l 3,46% v 3,9%. Tuy nhin, k t n nay, mc trt gi hng
nm gim dn.
Tnh vo thi im ngy 30 thng 9, mt la i c 16051 ng, tng 137 im, tng ng 0,86% so
vi u nm (15914). Cc nm trc y, t l trt gi ca tin ng so vi la nh sau: nm 2005,
0,86%; nm 2004, 0,84%; nm 2003, 1,56%; nm 2002, 1.98%.
Tnh t u nm n nay, mc thp nht t c l 15901 vo ngy 14 thng 3, mc cao nht t c
l 16056 vo ngy 29 thng 9. Mc 16056 t c cng cao hn ti 60 im so vi ngy xy ra hin
tng t gi trn th trng t do t mc trao i 17200 (ngy mng 9 thng 5 nm 2006).
Theo d on ca cc tp on ti chnh ln nh HSBC, Deutsche Bank v Citigroup, t gi USD/VND
cui nm 2006 s vo khong 16050 16100, tc l tin ng s mt gi so vi ng la vo
khong 1% so vi u nm.

1
Nguyn Th Hng
Email: thehung@techcombank.com.vn

Treasury Department
Add: 15 Dao Duy Tu Str., Hanoi, Vietnam
Tel: + 84-4- 8.25 25 82 (direct line)
+ 84-4- 8.24 39 41
Fax: 84-4- 9 28 31.92

Phn tch t gi la/ng

Th 5 , ngy 12 thng 10 nm 2006

Trc khi i vo phn tch, d on bin ng t gi, chng ta s cng nhn li cc ch s kinh t V m
ca Vit Nam nhng nm qua.
Tc tng trng GDP:
Theo s liu t Tng cc thng k, tc tng trng GDP ca Vit Nam t nm 2000 n nm 2003 t
khong 7%/nm, nm 2004 v 2005, tc tng trng t ln lt l 7,7% v 8,4%. Chnh ph Vit
Nam ang t mc tiu tng trng trung bnh t 7,5% n 8,0% cho giai on 2006-2010 v ring nm
2006, mc tiu t trn 8,0%. Tuy nhin, theo s liu thng k mi ra, tc tng trng GDP tnh n
cui thng 9 ch t 7,84%/nm.
Ch s gi:
Theo s liu Tng cc thng k mi cng b, ch s gi tiu dng (CPI) trong thng 9 tng 0,3% so vi
thng trc, so vi thng 12 nm trc, gi tiu dng thng ny tng 5,1%. Cc chuyn gia ca T iu
hnh nhn nh, theo quy lut, trong nhng thng cui nm, nhu cu tiu th nguyn vt liu, hng ho s
tng cao, tuy nhin, CPI c nm s t c kh nng vt qu 7%.
Mc lm pht ca Vit Nam lin tc tng cao trong nhng nm gn y, tng 8,4% trong nm 2005,
9,5% trong nm 2004.
Xut nhp khu:
Trong 9 thng u nm, tng mc lu chuyn ngoi thng t 62,15 t la, tng 21,6% so vi cng k
nm 2005, trong xut khu t 29,4 t la, tng 24,2%; nhp khu t 32,75 t la, tng 19,3%. Tr
gi nhp siu ca 9 thng t 3,4 t la. Nm 2004 v 2005, thm ht cn cn thng mi t ln lt l
5,45 t la v 4,65 t la.
Trong cc mt hng xut khu, tr gi du th 9 thng t 6,47 t la, tng ng 12,5 triu tn, chim
t trng ln nht trong tng tr gi xut khu vi 22%. Nm 2005, tng gi tr xut khu du th t 7,39
t la (tng ng 18,8 triu tn), chim 23% tng gi tr xut khu.

2
Nguyn Th Hng
Email: thehung@techcombank.com.vn

Treasury Department
Add: 15 Dao Duy Tu Str., Hanoi, Vietnam
Tel: + 84-4- 8.25 25 82 (direct line)
+ 84-4- 8.24 39 41
Fax: 84-4- 9 28 31.92

Phn tch t gi la/ng

Th 5 , ngy 12 thng 10 nm 2006

Cc i tc chnh trong xut nhp khu ca Vit Nam l M, Chu u, Nht, Trung Quc, Hn Quc, i
Loan, Singapour, Thai Lan, c.
Xut khu 9 thng u nm 2006
(29.4 t USD)

Mt hng khc
27%

Du th
22%

Thy sn
8%

Dt, may
15%

Sn phm g
5%
Cao su
3%

C ph
3%

Go
4%

in t
4%

Giy dp
9%

u t trc tip nc ngoi (FDI), ODA v kiu hi:

9 thng u nm, c 580 d n u t nc ngoi c cp giy php vi tng vn ng k 3,85 t USD.
Nu tnh c s d n c cp b sung, tng vn u t trc tip nc ngoi vo Vit Nam t u nm
n nay t 5,15 t USD.
Theo s liu mi cng b ca Tng cc Thng k, quy m ca cc d n FDI c cp php trong 9
thng u nm tng mnh so vi cng k nm ngoi, t mc trung bnh 4,6 triu USD/d n ln 6,6 triu
USD.
Nm 2005, Vit Nam thu ht c tng cng 5,8 t la ngun vn FDI, t mc k lc t 8 nm tr
li y.
Theo s liu t B k hoch v u t, nm 2005, Vit Nam nhn c 3,4 t la ngun vn ODA, cao
hn mc 2,8 t la ca nm 2004.
3
Nguyn Th Hng
Email: thehung@techcombank.com.vn

Treasury Department
Add: 15 Dao Duy Tu Str., Hanoi, Vietnam
Tel: + 84-4- 8.25 25 82 (direct line)
+ 84-4- 8.24 39 41
Fax: 84-4- 9 28 31.92

Phn tch t gi la/ng

Th 5 , ngy 12 thng 10 nm 2006

Lng kiu hi tng mnh trong nm 2005, t 4 t la, tng 25% so vi nm 2004. Nhng chnh
sch ca chnh ph nhm khuyn khch nhng ngi Vit Nam nc ngoi u t trong nc t ra c
hiu qu. Lng kiu hi c chuyn v lin tc tng ng gp mt vai tr quan trng, lm tng
lng cung ng la trn th trng v gp phn lm tng ngun d tr ngoi hi.

Do nm 1999 c coi l thi im ng tin ca cc nc trong khu vc v tin ng u c s iu

chnh li hng n ngang gi chung sau cuc khng hong ti chnh nm 1997, v vy nm 1999 s
c s dng lm mc so snh bin ng tin ng.

Chnh sch t gi hi oi trong nc ph thuc mt phn khng nh t chnh sch t gi hi oi ca

cc i th cnh tranh l cc nc Chu khc nht l Trung Quc.
Nhng nm va qua, ng la mt gi nhiu so vi cc ng tin ch lc khc nh Euro v Bng
Anh. Tuy nhin, cc nc Chu , vi s can thip t chnh ph, kim ch s tng gi ca ng tin
nc mnh so vi la nhm tng tnh cnh tranh v Vit nam khng phi l ngoi l. iu ny gii thch
ti sao nhng nm u th k 21, t l lm pht ca Vit Nam thp nhng t l trt gi ca tin ng li
cao.
Tuy vy, theo di bin ng ng tin ca cc nc Chu t u nm nay ta thy a s gi tr ng tin
cc nc ny khng cn gim m ang tng gi so vi ng la. ng Nhn dn t, bin ng rt t
sau ngy chnh ph Trung Quc t b chnh sch t gi c nh, cng tng 2,03% tnh t u nm. y
l mt mc bin ng rt ng k bi trong vng 6 nm, mc tng gi ny ch l 2,55%. Di p lc t
M, cng vi mc tiu tng cht lng tng trng ca chnh ph Trung Quc, ng Nhn dn t c
d on l s cn tip tc tng gi so vi ng la vo cui nm 2006 v nhng nm tip theo.
Nhn bng bin ng cc ng tin ca cc i tc l nhng i th cnh tranh ca Vit Nam, ta thy hu
nh tt c cc ng tin ny u tng gi hoc c xu hng tng gi so vi ng la.
Ngoi tr ng Yn Nht, nhm trnh tnh trng suy thoi nn kinh t, chnh ph Nht tc ng mnh
m n chnh sch t gi nhng nm qua. Tuy nhin, vi s phc hi nn kinh t hin nay, trin vng tng
4
Nguyn Th Hng
Email: thehung@techcombank.com.vn

Treasury Department
Add: 15 Dao Duy Tu Str., Hanoi, Vietnam
Tel: + 84-4- 8.25 25 82 (direct line)
+ 84-4- 8.24 39 41
Fax: 84-4- 9 28 31.92

Phn tch t gi la/ng

Th 5 , ngy 12 thng 10 nm 2006

li sut ng Yn, ng Yn c d on s tng gi mnh so vi ng la trong nm 2007, thay v b

gim gi nh nhng nm va qua.
Nh vy, trong khi chnh sch t gi hi oi ca NHNN ph thuc khng nh vo chnh sch t gi ca
cc i th cnh tranh th vic gi tr ng tin ca cc nc ny tng so vi ng la s lm gim ng
k p lc nh trt gi tin ng ca chnh ph Vit Nam.

Bin ng cc ng tin so vi la M
EUR
Anh-GBP
Nht-JPY
Singapour-SGD
i Loan-TWD
Thi Lan-THB
Trung Quc-CNY
Hn Quc - KRW
c - AUD
Vit Nam-VND

2000
-6.43%
-7.54%
-11.80%
-4.15%
-5.39%
-15.75%
0.03%
-11.28%
-14.90%
-3.46%

2001
-5.50%
-2.78%
-15.19%
-6.52%
-5.68%
-1.98%
0.01%
-3.96%
-8.58%
-3.93%

2002
17.88%
10.79%
9.79%
6.06%
1.00%
2.56%
0.01%
9.69%
9.85%
-1.98%

2003
19.91%
10.82%
9.61%
2.09%
1.94%
8.11%
0.00%
0.52%
34.00%
-1.56%

2004
2005
2000-2005 2Jan06-29Sep06
7.72% -12.67% 17.58%
7.02%
7.46% -10.28%
6.40%
8.77%
4.55% -15.10% -15.37%
-0.21%
3.83% -1.84%
0.08%
4.53%
6.45% -3.21%
-4.40%
-1.01%
1.86% -5.57%
-9.52%
8.45%
0.00%
2.52%
2.55%
2.03%
13.16%
2.68% 11.24%
6.11%
4.03% -6.22% 11.73%
1.77%
-0.84% -0.86% -13.17%
-0.89%

c rt nhiu kin cho rng, gi tr tin ng (VND) c nh gi cao hn gi tr thc so vi

ng la bi lm pht ca Vit Nam nhng nm va qua lin tc t mc cao, chnh v vy, tin ng
cn phi tip tc mt gi t gi tr v trng thi cn bng, vy iu ny c ng?
Nu ch xt trong giai on u nm 2000 n cui thng 8 nm 2006, da vo ch s gi, sc mua ca
tin ng gim 33,5%, sc mua ca ng la gim 20,68%, trong khi , gi tr tin ng
gim so vi ng la l 14,16%. Nh vy, nhn vo cc ch s trn ta thy nhn nh trn khng tht s
chnh xc.
Mt khc, cng trong cng mt giai on ny, tin ng mt gi nhiu so vi cc ng tin ca cc i
tc thng mi ln, c th l gim 45% gi tr so vi ng Euro, 34% so vi ng Bng, 18,85% so vi
ng Nhn dn t, 33% so vi ng la c, 21% so vi ng la Singapour, 34,8% so vi ng Won
5
Nguyn Th Hng
Email: thehung@techcombank.com.vn

Treasury Department
Add: 15 Dao Duy Tu Str., Hanoi, Vietnam
Tel: + 84-4- 8.25 25 82 (direct line)
+ 84-4- 8.24 39 41
Fax: 84-4- 9 28 31.92

Phn tch t gi la/ng

Th 5 , ngy 12 thng 10 nm 2006

ca Hn Quc. Nu tnh trt gi ca tin ng theo mt r tin t gm cc i tc thng mi ln th

mc ca n khng nh.
Tuy nhin, bin ng ca t gi khng phi ch ph thuc vo cc s liu ca qu kh, nu nhng nm ti,
t l lm pht ca Vit Nam vn lun duy tr mc cao nh nhng nm gn y th p lc tc ng ln
tin ng s rt ln. Nu tc lm pht tng mnh nh ba nm gn y th trong mt giai on 6 nm
m chng ta ang xt, mc lm pht s cao hn rt nhiu con s 33,5%.

Viet Nam (VND)

My (USD)
Khu vuc dong Euro
Anh (GBP)
Nhat (JPY)
Trung Quoc (CNY)
Taiwan (TWD)
Australia (AUD)
Singapour (SGD)
Han Quoc (KRW)
Thai Lan (THB)

12/1999 -> 08/2006

Lm pht
% VND/Cac ngoai te
33.51%
0.00%
20.68%
-14.16%
15.73%
-45.18%
10.65%
-34.39%
-2.34%
0.56%
2.32%
-18.85%
5.32%
-9.06%
24.34%
-32.85%
6.05%
-20.78%
22.38%
-34.84%
18.80%
-13.80%

S l khng y nu ch da vo lm pht tnh ton bin ng t gi. Chng hn nh nm 2005, gi

tr ng Euro b gim 10% so vi ng la trong khi mc lm pht M li cao hn khu vc ng
Euro. Nh vy, v d ny chng t rng ngoi yu t lm pht, bin ng ca t gi cn ph thuc vo
yu t khc. y, chnh l bin ng v cung cu gia tin ng v la.
Nm 2006 c d on l kh quan trong xut khu, 9 thng u nm kim ngch xut khu tng 24,2%
so vi cng k nm trc, trong khi , tc tng nhp khu ch t 19,3%. Tc tng xut khu cao
hn tc tng nhp khu lm gim ng k mc thm ht cn cn thng mi 9 thng u nm.
Trin vng Vit Nam ra nhp t chc thng mi th gii WTO vo cui nm nay cng c ha hn l
mt c hi ln cho Vit Nam gim mc thm ht cn cn thng mi. S tham gia ca cc cng ty nc
ngoi ti Vit Nam s khin cho s cnh tranh ca cc hng ho trong nc i vi cc hng ho nhp
khu tng, bn cnh , hng ho ca Vit Nam s c nhiu c hi tham gia th trng th gii hn.
6
Nguyn Th Hng
Email: thehung@techcombank.com.vn

Treasury Department
Add: 15 Dao Duy Tu Str., Hanoi, Vietnam
Tel: + 84-4- 8.25 25 82 (direct line)
+ 84-4- 8.24 39 41
Fax: 84-4- 9 28 31.92

Phn tch t gi la/ng

Th 5 , ngy 12 thng 10 nm 2006

Bn cnh nhng thun li v xut khu, vic ra nhp t chc thng mi th gii c d on s thu ht
thm nhng lung vn u t nc ngoi ln.
Ngoi ra cng phi k ti s tham gia ca cc qu u t vo th trng ti chnh Vit Nam. Hin nay s
tham gia ca cc qu ny cn tng i nh nhng n vn ha hn nhiu vi s m ca mnh m hn
ca Vit Nam sau khi gia nhp WTO. S tham gia ca cc qu s lm tng lng cung la trn th
trng.
u t trn th trng chng khon l mt loi hnh u t mi m Vit Nam, th trng ny hin ang
thu ht c rt nhiu s tham gia ca ngi dn. Trung tm giao dch chng khon Thnh ph H Ch
Minh hot ng hn 6 nm, hin ang c 49 cng ty nim yt, vi tng gi tr th trng 50 nghn t
ng. y l mt bc tin ln, bi th trng chng khon Vit Nam khi ra i ch c vn vn 2 cng ty
nim yt l REE v SAM vi tng vn 270 t ng. S pht trin ca th trng chng khon cng ng
ngha vi nhu cu tin ng tng cao, thay v tch tr ti sn bng ng la, cc nh u t th c hi
trn th trng chng khon.
Mt yu t khng th khng k ti l li sut. Mc d chnh lch v li sut gia tin ng v ng
la dn b thu hp nhng vi chnh lch vo khong 3,5% - 4,0% hin nay, chc hn vn hp
dn mt b phn khng nh cc nh u t gi tin ng.

D tr ngoi hi:
Tnh n thi im thng 3 va qua, lng d tr ngoi hi ca Vit Nam theo d on vo khong 10
t la, tng ng vi 12 tun nhp khu. Mc d lng d tr ca Vit Nam tng ng k trong
nhng nm gn y nhng vn cn nh so vi cc nc khc trong khu vc.
Tuy vy, vic tng ngun d tr ngoi hi khng qu cp bch bi lng cung v la hin nay trn th
trng th gii rt ln. Nu nh trong cuc khng hong ti chnh Chu nm 1997, cc nc gp rt
nhiu kh khn trong vic huy ng ng la, th vo thi im hin nay, vi lng cung v la di
do trn th trng th gii, vic huy ng ng la s d dng hn nhiu.

7
Nguyn Th Hng
Email: thehung@techcombank.com.vn

Treasury Department
Add: 15 Dao Duy Tu Str., Hanoi, Vietnam
Tel: + 84-4- 8.25 25 82 (direct line)
+ 84-4- 8.24 39 41
Fax: 84-4- 9 28 31.92

Phn tch t gi la/ng

Th 5 , ngy 12 thng 10 nm 2006

Foreign Reserve
Trung Quoc
Nhat
Dai loan
Han Quoc
Singapour
An do
Hong Kong
Malaysia
Thai lan
Indo
Philip
Vietnam
0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

N nc ngoi ca Vit Nam nm 2005 l 17,4 t la, chim 33% GDP. T l ny l tng i nh so
vi mc trung bnh trn th gii. Bn cnh , t l n ngn hn ch chim 3,8% trn tng s n. Nh vy,
vi t l d tr ngoi t hin nay, chnh ph hon ton c th p ng nhu cu rt vn nu c.

Gi du c tc ng ti t gi?
Theo s liu thng k, tr gi du th 9 thng u nm t 6,47 t la, tng ng 12,5 triu tn, chim
t trng ln nht trong tng tr gi xut khu vi 22%. Nm 2005, tng gi tr xut khu du th t 7,39
t la (tng ng 18,8 triu tn), chim 23% tng gi tr xut khu. Bn cnh , tr gi nhp khu du
th 9 thng u nm l 4,73 t la, tr gi nhp khu ca c nm 2005 l 4,97 t la. Mc thng d
thng mi trong lnh vc du vo khong 2 t la/nm.

8
Nguyn Th Hng
Email: thehung@techcombank.com.vn

Treasury Department
Add: 15 Dao Duy Tu Str., Hanoi, Vietnam
Tel: + 84-4- 8.25 25 82 (direct line)
+ 84-4- 8.24 39 41
Fax: 84-4- 9 28 31.92

Phn tch t gi la/ng

Th 5 , ngy 12 thng 10 nm 2006

Theo s liu t IMF, mc thm ht ti khon vng lai ca Vit Nam nm 2003 v 2004 ln lt l 4,9%
v 3,8%, nhng nu khng tnh yu t du th th mc thm ht ny ln ti 8,4% cho c hai nm.
Nh vy, qua cc s liu trn ta thy lng cung v ng la ca Vit Nam ph thuc khng nh vo
bin ng gi du.
Tuy nhin, sau khi Vit Nam ra nhp WTO, vi vic s lng hng ho xut khu tng th t trng tr gi
ca du trong xut khu s gim v nh hng ca gi du s c xu hng gim dn.
Tnh t mc nh im 78,4$/thng (ngy 14 thng 7) n mc 60$/thng hin nay, gi du gim ti
23%. V mc gi hin nay cng ang thp hn mc gi trung bnh tnh t u nm 67,8$/thng. Gi du
c d on cn c th gim xung 50$ - 55$/thng, tng ng gim thm 10% so vi hin nay. S
bin ng bt li ca gi du ny lm gim ng k ngun thu ngoi t ca Chnh ph.

Tm li:
Da vo cc d liu c ch ra trn, chng ta d on t gi USD/VND cui nm 2006 s vo
khong 16080.
Gi du hin nay ang c xu hng gim v c th duy tr mc thp vo nm sau, iu ny s lm gim
p lc lm pht Vit Nam. Bn cnh , vic ra nhp WTO s lm tng lng cung la trn th trng
Vit Nam. Li sut ng la cng c th gim vo nm sau, gi tr ng la cng c th tip tc b
trt gi so vi cc ng tin khc. y l nhng l do tch cc tr gip cho NHNN thc hin c mong
mun duy tr s n nh v t gi.
Chng ta d on t gi USD/VND cui nm 2007 vo khong 16250, gim khong 1% so vi cui
nm 2006.

9
Nguyn Th Hng
Email: thehung@techcombank.com.vn

Treasury Department
Add: 15 Dao Duy Tu Str., Hanoi, Vietnam
Tel: + 84-4- 8.25 25 82 (direct line)
+ 84-4- 8.24 39 41
Fax: 84-4- 9 28 31.92