Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Mohali Integrated MSc, Semester: IV Probability and Statistics: MTH 202

Tutorial 4 ( February, 01, 2013) Urn Model: Let an urn contains b many black and r many red balls. Experiment: Draw a ball at random from the urn. Replace the ball in the urn after noting down its color. (R for red and B for black) Add c many balls of same color (as of the ball drawn) and d many of opposite color. (For k N, adding k balls mean taking out k balls.) Repeat this process. Question 1. Consider the urn model with c = 3 and d = 0. Find the probability of getting 3 red balls in 7 draws. (Polyas urn model of Contagious Diseases) 2. Consider the urn model with b = 10, r = 12, c = 1 and d = 1. Find the probability of having 11 red balls in the urn after 3 draws. (Ehrenfest model of Heat Exchange) 3. While taking attendance yesterday, I found that there are 5 proxies in total of 60. To know about absentees, I perform the following experiment: I call the names of 10 students picking randomly from the 60 signatures in the attendance sheet. What is the probability that at least one absentee will be caught? 4. I found that there are two categories C1 and C2 of students in MTH202 class with 50 and 34 students 3 4 and 10 respectively. Probability of attending a class for students in categories C1 and C2 are 5 respectively. If, I take a surprise quiz, what is the probability that at least 80 students will come for the quiz?