8

8:

..

1. E

20 km
( ) 60 km.
.
, .
60 720 km
.

,
( , , .).
, ,
. ( , .).
, ,
.

8:

..

2.

. 1. , , , e, .
. ,
, ()
(). ,
. , ,
.
.
( )
( ).

8:

..

 ()

. 2. , ,
(. 2) , , (. 2).

. , ,
, (. 1)
(. 2).
,
(. 2).

8:

..

 ()

Dixie Valley ... 16

1954 =6.8 (Steinbrugge Collection, E.E.R.C., University of California, Berkeley).

. , ,
,
.

8:

..

 ()

,
, .
.

( ) , , (C)
(D). ,
,
, ,
.

8:

..

 ()

()

: ) , ) , ) , ) .

() () , .
,
. ()
(
) () (
). , ,
() () () ().

8:

..

 ()

Reid
, w, , u,
()

,
.

( , x1,
), ,
, x3, w. ,
, , u,
,
, x2, .
, x2,
, u1,
:

x 2

2
2
u1 U 1
w
w

U=u/2. , u1,

, , u,
(u1=U=u/2). (x2=2w),
u1 , u,
(u1=U/4=u/8).

8:

..

3.
.
,
.
, ,
, .

.

350 km,
( )
( )
350 km.

8:

..

 ()

1971

( ,
, .)

10

8:

..

 ()

- ( ,
)


(Papazachos
et al., 2005).
~4cm/yr
,
, 70-90 km

7 km.
.

100-110 km
( , .) .
(60-90 km) ,
, ..
. 100-110 km ( ~28kbar)
1000C ( )
, .
(.. ) 1% 140-160 km,

. ,

1000C .
(, , .).

11

8:

..

4.
( , ,
, .)
. ,
, ( ,
.).

( , .).

,

.

12

8:

..

 ()

(asperity model),
(),
(, asperities).

, () .
(
), .
, , , ,

. , ,
( ) ,
,
.

, ,
(). , ,
.

13

8:

..

 ()

(barrier model),
. , (, barriers),
().
( )
.
, , ()
, ,
,
. , ,
( ) ,

. .

().
, ,
, , .
, ,
.

14

8:

..

()

.

. (interplate
earthquakes), , .

, .
,
( ). (intraplate
earthquakes), , .

15

8:

..

5.

,
h60 km, ,
60 km<h300 km
, h>300
km.
(h60 km)
.

, n, 20 km , 1977
2004 5.5, h ( CMT Harvard).
350
km. 600 km
Lehmann, 720 km.

16

8:

..

 ()

(, , .) , ,
, ( )
- .

17

8:

..

 ()
1977-2004
5.5:
( , h < 60 km),
( , 60 km h 300 km),
( , 300 km < h 720 km).

.


.
,
, .



.

18

8:

..

6.
, 80 km
. ,
,
.
-


( , , .)
. ,
- .
.

.
,
,
.

19

8:

..

 ()

.
20

8:

..

 ()

.
,
, .

. ,
.

21

8:

..

7.

, :
, .

, ,
,
.

22

8:

..

 ()

.
.
(Scholz, 1988).
() (Q1). ,
()
(Q2) ( doughnut, D). (F)
( ) .
(Karakaisis et al., 1991).

23

8:

..

 ()

, , , ( 1 2)

(2-1, ). , u,
( ).
, ,
,

( , .).

( ), .

24

8:

..

 ()

2 m Denali ,
=7.9 3 2003.
(b02: 2002). , ,
( ) ,
, (Schwartz et al., 2005).

25

8:

..

 ()


, ,

. ,
,

. .

,
.


(. ).

,
(. )
.

, , , 1,
, , 1.2. : 1 = 1.2.
, n, , , (..
), , t,
Omori : n = k (t + c)-p.

26

8:

..

(=5.9, 7.9.1999)

300,

38.1oN, 23.7oE.

( )
7 1999
( ) (Papazachos et al. 2000).

.
. , .
, ,
.
(.. )
.

27

8:

..

 ()



( ), ()
.
( Benioff
)
(preshocks). (

):
S(t) = A + B(tc t)m

(1)

t , tc , S
() ,
A, B, m
( m=0.3).
( )


.
28

8:

..

 ()
( )
,
( )
(Papazachos et al., 2004).
( )

( ) m
(m=3.0).

29

8:

..

 ()

( ) ( ) ()
(1: 10.10.1980, =7.1, 2: 23.11.1980, =6.9, 3: 19.12.1981, =7.2, 4: 17.1.1983,
=7.0, 5: 9.10.1996, =6.8, 6: 17.8.1999, =7.4).

, (Papazachos et al., 2005).

30

8:

..

 ()

()
( )
(
)
9 1956
(=7.5).

.


,
S,

( )
(
).


( 1) m=0.3

m=3.0

. (Papazachos et al.,
2004).

31

8:

..


(
, , , , ,
, .)
, ,
. .

( )
(x).
5
1966 =6.2 (Comninakis
et al., 1968, ).

.
( )

().
(Raleigh et al., 1976).

32

8:

..

8.
H


.

.

( , .)

( ). ,

.



( ).
33

8:

..

 ()
:
Gutenberg and Richter (1944)
( Poisson).
Gutenberg-Richter: , n, ,

log n = a - bM, a, b, . , ,
n, , , : :
log N = at bM
H at , , S,
.
, , a
: a = at logt.
b
.
, :

log N = a bM
, .
34

8:

..

 ()
at, a b
at b logN .

logN

(34 43, 19
29) 1901-2004 (t=104 )
5.5.

at=8.81, b=1.08.
, a = at - log(104) = 6.79

, ,

.

a b ,

, j,
(..
Gumbel, 1958).

35

8:

..

 ()

logN = a bM , (=m),
, Tm
( ), , :

10 a
Nm
10 bM

10 bM
Tm
10 a

T
P exp( )
Tm

, ,

a log t
Mt
b
b

, t,

, .

t . : 1 = a/b.

Pt 1 exp[10a t exp(bM ln 10)]

, t,
t .

36

8:

..

 ()

b .
b (Papazachos,
1999). , , b
.
37

8:

..

 ()

5.5 6.0
(, 1968)

6.0 (Hatzidimitriou et al., 1994).

38

8:

..

 ()


, :
,
,

,

.

,

.

Gutenberg-Richter.

39

8:

..

 ()


( , )
.
, (t), t
( ).

, . t
, log(t/T)
( t/T) ,
, . , (t),
, ( Gauss),
:

P(t )

F(

L2
L
) F( 1 )

L
1 F( 1 )

L1 log

t
,
T

L 2 log

t t
T

F (
) .

, ,

.

40

8:

..

 ()

,
. ,
, t ( ),
:

log Tt = 0.19Mmin + 0.33Mp + q

Mmin , Mp
q
(Papazachos et al. 1997).

MMmin. , t,
, , , Tt,
.

41

8:

..

 ()

,
tc,

() .

, , M, :
log R (km) = 0.42M 0.30 log sr + 1.23,

log a (km) = 0.23M 0.14 log sd + 1.40

R a sr sd (
Joule1/2/yr.104 km2)
.
tc :
log (tc-tsd) = 3.00 0.32 log sd
tsd . =0.75
.
, ,
.

42

8:

..

 ()

,
,
.
(<3.0)
(, .). , ,
.

.

, , :
,
,
,

,
.
,
, .

43

8:

..

 ()

(accelerating preshocks)
. S(t)=A+B(tc-t)m
(m<1) Gutenberg-Richter.
(decelerating preshocks)
.
S(t)=A+B(tc-t)m (m>1) Gutenberg-Richter.
(foreshocks)
Gutenberg-Richter. ( )
.
(aftershocks) ,
o Omori Gutenberg-Richter.
(postshocks)
( ),
.
(,
, )
(, , ),
(.. ) (,
, .), ,
.

44

8:

..

9.
.
.

( , , -,
.), ( , , .),
( , .) .
:
(deterministic chaos)

- (self-organized criticality, SOC)

(critical point)
.

45

8:

..



(.. )

. ,
.

. ) ()
, . , ,
, V,
f1, f2, ... .
. )
. =0
, (.. k3
). V.
, , , u,
.
, (Sykes et al., 1999, ).

46

8:

..

-
,


(Bak et al., 1988).
,
, ,
(
).
(fractal). ,
(.. ) , ,
r :
N = C r-D
C, D . D .
- ,
.

47

8:

..

) .
. )
(cellular automaton, )
4, , 4
.
.

48

8:

..

(, )
-
, , - (Bak et al.,
1988, Sornette, 1991).

:
) (~cm/yr)
(~cm/sec) ,
) ( )
- (self-similarity), ,
,
) Gutenberg-Richter ,
.
- ()
.
,
(long range correlation),
(-) .

49

8:

..

.
( )

. .
, .. ,
, .
.

,
(Ising model). =0
.

.
( 1, 1 )

(

). ( 2,
2 , )


(
),
,
.
, Tc ( Curie)
>Tc
(Rundle et al., 1999).

50

8:

..

.
.
,
( )
( ) S(t)=A+B(tc-t)m,

- .

,
. (
) .

,
, -

. -
.
(seismic recurrent criticality).

51

8:

..



(Dieterich, 1992, Scholz, 2002)
, (instability)
(nucleation phase),
( km) .

, ,
.
(slip weakening),
() , S,
.
() ,
, ,
. , Dc ( mm),
, S ( km), ,
( m), , , , u ( mm),
(Scholz, 2002).
Dc (mm)

S (km)

Mo ( m)

u (mm)

50

5.3

5.51017

5.8

250

0.53

5.51014

3.8

25

0.5

0.053

5.51011

1.8

2.5

, 15 km, 5.8,
5 km 5 cm
25 cm .

52

8:

..

()
().
. 3
. (a)
(cascade model), 1
2
3. (b) (preslip model)
( ). 1 2 3,
(Ellsworth and Beroza, 1995).

53

8:

..