Weekly Summary Report

2013 Trading Week 40: 23-29 September 2013

Weekly Summary Report

SUPPLY AND DEMAND
TABLE 1. DAILY SUMMARY OF OFFERS AND DEMAND, SYSTEM
DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 OFFER, MW MIN 9,169 8,675 8,535 8,476 8,090 8,591 8,208 8,090 AVE 9,350 8,959 8,978 8,769 8,802 8,963 8,765 8,941 MAX 9,559 9,356 9,394 9,129 9,518 9,381 9,120 9,559 MIN 4,933 5,476 5,825 5,787 5,807 5,458 5,540 4,933 RTD DEMAND, MW AVE 6,671 7,119 7,295 7,211 7,238 6,978 6,689 7,029 MAX 7,795 8,459 8,270 8,326 7,995 7,945 8,459

Week 40: 23-29 Sep 2013

GRAPH 1. HOURLY PROFILE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, SYSTEM

12000 OFFER AVAILABLE SUPPLY SYSTEM RTD

10000 MEGAWATT

8,349

8000

6000

4000

DAILY MINIMUM, AVERAGE, AND MAXIMUM VALUES OF ENERGY OFFERS AND EX-ANTE DEMAND FOR THE WEEK

HOURLY TREND OF ENERGY OFFERS, AVAILABLE SUPPLY, AND DEMAND AT EX-ANTE

FORECAST PERFORMANCE
TABLE 2. DAILY SUMMARY OF FORECAST ERRORS, SYSTEM
FORECAST ERRORS, % DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 MINIMUM 0.16 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.09 0.04 0.03 0.01 MAPE 1.21 0.73 0.54 0.80 0.77 0.87 0.86 0.82 MAXIMUM 4.71 1.38 2.52 1.69 3.14 3.80 4.71 HOURLY TREND OF PROJECTED (RTD) AND ACTUAL DEMAND
4000 MEGAWATT 10000

GRAPH 2. HOURLY PROFILE OF PROJECTED AND ACTUAL DEMAND, SYSTEM

12000 SYSTEM RTD SYSTEM ACTUAL

1.91

8000

6000

DAILY MINIMUM, AVERAGE, AND MAXIMUM FORECAST ERRORS FOR THE WEEK

EX-ANTE GENERATION MIX

TABLE 3. DAILY SUMMARY OF EX-ANTE GENERATION MIX, SYSTEM
GENERATION MIX, % DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 COAL 37.7 40.3 40.5 38.5 38.9 40.3 40.0 39.5 GENERATION MIX GEO 15.1 15.0 15.0 15.1 14.7 15.2 14.8 15.0 HYDRO 13.7 11.3 11.8 12.5 12.0 11.6 11.6 12.1 NAT GAS 33.3 32.5 31.7 32.0 31.8 32.7 33.0 32.4 DIESEL / OIL 0.3 0.9 1.0 1.8 2.5 0.2 0.6 1.0 WIND AND BIO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 GENERATION DURING THE TRADING WEEK
HYDRO 12.1% GEO 15.0% NAT GAS 32.4%

GRAPH 3. TOTAL EX-ANTE GENERATION MIX FOR THE WEEK, SYSTEM

DIESEL/OIL 1.0%

COAL 39.5%

DAILY PERCENTAGE (%) SHARE OF RESOURCE TYPE TO THE SCHEDULED (EX-ANTE)

WEEKLY GENERATION MIX BY RESOURCE TYPE (IN %) BASED ON THE SCHEDULED

2 OF 6

Weekly Summary Report

CAPACITY (OFFER) MIX
TABLE 4. DAILY % SHARE OF ENERGY OFFERS, SYSTEM
AVERAGE CAPACITY MIX, % DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 COAL 38.3 38.8 38.7 36.8 36.7 38.9 38.3 38.1 GEO 11.5 12.0 12.0 12.3 12.2 12.0 12.3 12.0 HYDRO 12.0 9.5 10.7 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.4 10.3 NAT GAS 26.3 27.4 27.4 28.0 27.9 27.4 28.0 27.5 DIESEL / OIL 11.9 12.2 11.2 12.7 13.1 11.7 12.0 12.1 WIND AND BIO -

Week 40: 23-29 Sep 2013

GRAPH 4. HOURLY PROFILE OF % SHARE OF ENERGY OFFERS, SYSTEM

12000 OTHERS NAT GAS GEO DIESEL/OIL HYDRO COAL

9000

MEGAWATT

6000

3000

DAILY PERCENTAGE (%) MIX OF ENERGY OFFERS BY RESOURCE TYPE

HOURLY PROFLE OF ENERGY OFFER MIX BY RESOURCE TYPE

HVDC FLOW
TABLE 5. DAILY SUMMARY OF HVDC FLOWS
HVDC DIRECTION, % OF TIME DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 RTD NO FLOW VL 12.5 45.8 50.0 79.2 83.3 41.7 95.8 58.3 LV 87.5 54.2 50.0 20.8 16.7 58.3 4.2 41.7 NO FLOW 4.2 4.2 1.2 ACTUAL VL 4.2 41.7 41.7 58.3 62.5 37.5 95.8 48.8 LV 95.8 58.3 37.5 33.3 62.5 4.2 50.0 SCHEDULED HVDC FLOW AT EX-ANTE, WHICH CAN EITHER BE FROM VISAYAS TO LUZON OR FROM LUZON TO VISAYAS. ZERO INDICATES NO POWER FLOW BETWEEN BOTH GRIDS.
MEGAWATT

GRAPH 5. HOURLY PROFLE OF EX-ANTE HVDC FLOWS

250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 LUZON TO VISAYAS VISAYAS TO LUZON

58.3

DAILY SUMMARY OF HVDC FLOWS INDICATING THE FLOW OF POWER, WHICH CAN EITHER BE FROM VISAYAS TO LUZON (VL), LUZON TO VISAYAS (LV), OR NO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO GRIDS (NO FLOW)

MARKET PRICES
TABLE 6. SUMMARY OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, SYSTEM
DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 RTD MIN 0 1,117 1,487 1,115 1,459 190 399 0 FOR THE WEEK MAX 3,306 8,384 9,350 13,758 17,472 8,088 13,693 17,472 AVE 1,615 4,167 4,173 5,851 6,603 2,245 3,694 4,092 MIN 0 1,164 1,487 1,118 1,479 1,268 1,108 0 RTX MAX 3,653 8,628 9,373 13,963 18,410 8,137 14,266 18,410 AVE 1,775
LWAP, PESOS PER MWh 24000

GRAPH 6. HOURLY PROFILE OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, SYSTEM

30000 RTD LWAP RTX LWAP

4,186 4,177 5,660 6,517 2,336 4,005 4,130

18000

12000

6000

DAILY MINIMUM, AVERAGE, AND MAXIMUM SYSTEM (LUZON AND VISAYAS) PRICES

HOURLY TREND OF RTD AND RTX SYSTEM (LUZON AND VISAYAS) PRICES DURING THE WEEK

3 OF 6

Weekly Summary Report

GRAPH 7. EX-ANTE LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE DISTRIBUTION, SYSTEM
100 RTD RTX

Week 40: 23-29 Sep 2013

GRAPH 8. HOURLY EX-ANTE LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES PER GRID

30000 LUZON VISAYAS

80 PERCENT OF TIME LWAP, PESOS PER MWh

24000

60

18000

40

12000

20

6000

0
0 and Below 0 - 2000 2000 - 4000 4000 - 6000 6000 - 8000 8000 10000 Above 10000

DISTRIBUTION OF THE HOURLY RTD AND RTX SYSTEM LWAP DURING THE WEEK. THE WEEKLY PERCENT OF TIME IS CALCULATED BASED ON A 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD AND THE TOTAL NUMBER OF HOURS DURING THE WEEK.

HOURLY TREND OF EX-ANTE PRICES IN LUZON AND VISAYAS DURING THE WEEK

TABLE 7. SUMMARY OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, LUZON

DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 RTD, PhP/MWh MIN 0 1,110 1,483 1,113 1,456 189 222 0 MAX 2,108 8,598 9,386 13,949 17,479 8,095 13,693 17,479 AVE 1,375 4,128 4,161 5,783 6,410 2,187 3,679 4,010 MIN 0 1,155 1,483 1,116 1,475 1,262 1,103 0 RTX, PhP/MWh MAX 2,435 8,598 9,386 13,949 18,482 8,095 14,200 18,482 AVE 1,420 4,167 4,159 5,636 6,463 2,241 3,982 4,056

TABLE 8. SUMMARY OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, VISAYAS

DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 RTD, PhP/MWh MIN 0 1,148 1,505 1,129 1,459 195 1,020 0 MAX 8,554 8,713 10,559 14,058 24,515 8,055 13,693 24,515 AVE 2,706 4,354 4,236 6,196 7,579 2,536 3,776 4,501 MIN 0 1,201 1,508 1,133 1,501 1,298 1,135 0 RTX, PhP/MWh MAX 8,935 8,766 9,308 14,025 18,046 8,329 14,592 18,046 AVE 3,381 4,278 4,270 5,785 6,794 2,811 4,128 4,500

DAILY MINIMUM, AVERAGE, AND MAXIMUM PRICES IN LUZON FOR THE WEEK

DAILY MINIMUM, AVERAGE, AND MAXIMUM PRICES IN VISAYAS FOR THE WEEK

GRAPH 9. HOURLY PROFILE OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, LUZON

RTD LWAP 30000 RTX LWAP

GRAPH 10. HOURLY PROFILE OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, VISAYAS

RTD LWAP 30000 RTX LWAP

24000 LWAP, PESOS PER MWh LWAP, PESOS PER MWh

24000

18000

18000

12000

12000

6000

6000

GRAPH 11. HOURLY PROFILE OF MAX AND MIN NODAL PRICES, LUZON
MAXIMUM 30000 MINIMUM

GRAPH 12. HOURLY PROFILE OF MAX AND MIN NODAL PRICES, VISAYAS
MAXIMUM 30000 MINIMUM

24000 LWAP, PESOS PER MWh LWAP, PESOS PER MWh

24000

18000

18000

12000

12000

6000

6000

HOURLY TREND OF RTD AND RTX PRICES IN LUZON DURING THE WEEK

HOURLY TREND OF RTD AND RTX PRICES IN VISAYAS DURING THE WEEK

4 OF 6

Weekly Summary Report

CONGESTIONS
TABLE 9. CONSTRAINED EQUIPMENT, LUZON
EQUIPMENT PANTABANGAN TR2 ZAPOTE CALAUAN-MAKBAN LINE EX-ANTE EX-POST INTERVALS % OF TIME INTERVALS % OF TIME 1 51 39 0.60 30.36 23.21 -

Week 40: 23-29 Sep 2013

TABLE 10. CONSTRAINED EQUIPMENT, VISAYAS

EQUIPMENT CEBU TR2 LEYTE-CEBU SUBMARINE CABLE NEGROS-PANAY SUBMARINE CABLE EX-ANTE EX-POST INTERVALS % OF TIME INTERVALS % OF TIME 1 7 8 0.60 4.17 4.76 5 5 2.98 2.98

PRICING CONDITIONS
TABLE 11. FREQUENCY OF PRICING CONDITIONS, LUZON
DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 AP RTD VALID 17 10 14 14 8 10 2 75 PEN 7 14 10 10 16 14 22 93 VALID 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 168 RTX MRR -

TABLE 12. FREQUENCY OF PRICING CONDITIONS, VISAYAS

DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 AP RTD VALID 20 20 24 23 20 18 3 128 PEN 4 4 1 4 6 21 40 VALID 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 168 RTX MRR -

TABLE 13. REASON FOR EX-ANTE PRICING ERRORS, LUZON

LUZON, EX-ANTE PEN DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 UGEN VOLL CONT UGEN - UNDER-GENERATION - NODAL VALUE OF LOST LOAD - CONTINGENCY CVC VOLL CONT 3 10 10 10 10 8 51 BC PSM 4 4 6 6 22 42 ERR -

TABLE 14. REASON FOR EX-ANTE PRICING ERRORS, VISAYAS

VISAYAS, EX-ANTE PEN DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 BC PSM ERR UGEN - BASE CASE CVC - SUBJECTED TO THE PRICE SUBSTITUTION METHODOLOGY - ERRONEOUS INPUT OR SNAPSHOT INFORMATION VOLL CONT BC 1 1 PSM 4 4 4 6 21 39 ERR -

TABLE 15. REASON FOR EX-POST PRICING ERRORS, LUZON

LUZON, EX-POST PEN DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 UGEN VOLL CONT UGEN - UNDER-GENERATION - NODAL VALUE OF LOST LOAD - CONTINGENCY CVC VOLL CONT BC PSM ERR -

TABLE 16. REASON FOR EX-POST PRICING ERRORS, VISAYAS

VISAYAS, EX-POST PEN DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 BC PSM ERR UGEN - BASE CASE CVC - SUBJECTED TO THE PRICE SUBSTITUTION METHODOLOGY - ERRONEOUS INPUT OR SNAPSHOT INFORMATION VOLL CONT BC PSM ERR -

5 OF 6

Weekly Summary Report

MUST-RUN UNITS
TABLE 17. INTERVALS WITH MUST-RUN UNIT (MRU) EVENTS
DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 LUZON 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 168 DAILY TOTAL OF MRU EVENTS PER GRID (LUZON AND VISAYAS). MRU EVENTS REFER TO OCCURRENCES IN WHICH GENERATING UNITS ARE DESIGNATED BY THE SYSTEM OPERATOR AS MUST-RUN UNITS FOR CERTAIN TRADING INTERVALS. SOURCE: NGCP LUZON SYSTEM OPERATIONS AND VISAYAS SYSTEM OPERATIONS VISAYAS 13 15 13 8 6 12 2 69

Week 40: 23-29 Sep 2013

GRAPH 13. HOURLY PROFILE OF MRU EVENTS

LUZON HOURLY FREQUENCY OF MRU EVENTS 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 VISAYAS

HOURLY TOTAL OF MRU EVENTS

TABLE 18. MRU EVENTS, LUZON

DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 THERMAL RESERVE TOTAL 24 27 24 28 24 24 24 175 THERMAL RESERVE VOLTAGE COM/REG 24 27 24 28 24 24 24 175 OTHERS -

TABLE 19. MRU EVENTS, VISAYAS

DATE Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-26 Sep-27 Sep-28 Sep-29 VOLTAGE COM/REG TOTAL 59 44 41 13 11 25 3 196 THERMAL 5 4 1 1 10 21 RESERVE VOLTAGE 54 40 40 12 11 15 3 175 COM/REG OTHERS -

- THERMAL LIMITS OF TRANSMISSION LINE AND/OR POWER EQUIPMENT - INADEQUATE RESERVE LEVEL

- SYSTEM VOLTAGE REQUIREMENT - COMMERCIAL OPERATION OR REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS

OTHER NOTABLE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS THAT AFFECTED MARKET CONDITIONS

- MANUAL LOAD DROPPING (MLD) WAS IMPLEMENTED AT CEBECO III FROM 24-25 SEPTEMBER 2013 TO PREVENT OVERLOADING OF THE 30 MVA TRANSFORMER AT THE CALUNG-CALUNG SUBSTATION.

6 OF 6