Professional Documents
Culture Documents
(CFSG)
, .
CFSG
150
. 9 ,
CESMAT,
,
. CFSG
, . (Fascicule
5), (Matheron) 1970 .
.
(Andre Journel) (Charles Huigbregts),
(Michael David) (Isobel Clark),
,
. . , ,
,
.
,
( ),
.
. ,
, ,
.
,
. ,
,
, ,
.
: (the support effect) (the
information effect). 2
. . 6
, .
, ,
.
.
1.
( )
.
.
2.
CFSG.
. (Malcolm Thurston) (Mike Harley),
. ,
............................................................................. 9
1.1
................................................................................................................... 9
1.2
........................................................................................................................ 9
1.3
............................................................... 9
1.3.1
......................................................... 9
1.3.2
..................................................................................................... 10
1.3.3
( ) ................................ 10
1.3.4
.................................................................. 10
1.3.5
............................................... 10
1.3.6
........................................................................................................................ 11
1.3.7
...................................................................... 11
1.4
: ? ..................................................... 11
............................................................................................. 12
1.5
1.5.1
............................................................................................. 14
1.5.2
..................................................................................... 15
.................................................................................... 15
1.5.3
1.5.4
................................................................................................ 18
1.6
......................................................... 19
............................................... 19
1.6.1
.............................................................. 20
1.6.2
1.6.3
........................................................................................... 21
1.7
................................................................................................................ 22
............ 23
2.1
................................................................................................................. 23
2.2
.................................................. 23
2.3
.................................................................................................. 24
2.4
(intrinsic) .............................. 25
2.5
, ........................................................ 27
2.6
............................................................... 28
2.7
................................................................................................................ 31
3.
................................................................ 33
3.1
................................................................................................................. 33
3.2
...................................................................................... 33
3.3
............................................................................... 34
3.4
............................................................................................ 34
3.5
............................................................................................................... 36
3.5.1
............................................................................... 36
3.5.2
( ) ........................................... 38
3.6
................................................................................................... 38
3.7
.............................................................................................. 39
3.8
..................................................................................... 40
3.9
................................................................................................... 40
3.9.1
.................................................. 41
3.11 ........................................................................................................ 43
3.12 ..................................................................................... 45
3.12.1 ...................................................................................................... 45
3.12.3 ......................................................................................... 45
3.12.4 ..................................................................................................... 46
3.12.5 ............................................................................................................ 46
3.12.6 ..................................................................................................... 47
3.12.7 ............................................................... 47
3.12.8 ............................................................................. 47
3.12.9 ........................................................................... 47
3.12.10 ............................................................ 48
3.13 ,
.................................................................................................................................................. 48
3.14 ..................................................................................................................... 49
4.
.... 55
4.1
................................................................................................................. 55
4.2
: ....................................... 55
4.3
.............................................................................................................. 55
4.4
................................................................................................. 56
4.5
1: .......................................................... 56
4.6
2: . 57
4.7
.............................................................................................. 60
4.8
................................................................................... 61
4.9
.............................................................................................. 62
4.9.1
............................................................................................................... 62
4.9.2
- hiccups ............................................................................ 63
4.9.3
............................................................................................................ 63
4.10
................................................................................................................ 64
5.
............................................. 66
5.1
................................................................................................................. 66
................................................................................. 66
5.2
5.2.1
1: ........................................................................... 66
5.2.2
, ........................................................... 67
5.2.3
............................................................ 70
5.3
...................................................................................................................... 70
5.4
................................................................................ 71
5.4.1
........................................................ 71
5.4.2
........................................................................................ 72
5.4.3
................................................ 72
5.4.4
............................................................................. 73
5.4.5
....................................................................... 73
5.5
5.6
: (. Thurston) ............... 76
6.
..................................................................... 78
6.1
................................................................................................................. 78
6.2
............................................................. 78
6.2.1
................................................................ 78
6.3
............................................................ 81
6.4
v V ....................................................................... 81
6.5
: .............................................................. 83
6.5.1
................................................................................................................ 83
6.6
: .................................................................... 84
6.7
: ................................. 85
6.7.1
................................................................................................................ 85
6.9
................................................................................................................ 85
7. ........................................................... 88
7.1
................................................................................................................. 88
7.2 .................................................................................................................. 88
7.3 ............................................................................ 89
7.4
....................................................................... 89
7.5
..................................................................................................... 91
7.6
OK ....................... 94
7.7
: .................................................................. 95
7.7.1
................................................................................................................ 95
7.8
...................................................................................... 97
7.9
........................................................................................................ 97
7.10
............................................................................................... 99
7.11
................................................................................... 100
7.12
........................................................................... 102
.............................................................................................................. 105
.......... 108
.................................................................................................................... 108
8.3
................................................................................................ 109
8.4
.............................. 111
8.4.1
....................................................................................... 111
8.4.2
................................................................. 112
8.5
.................................................................................................... 114
8.6
........................................................................................ 116
8.7
....................................................... 118
8.7.1
....................................... 119
8.8
........................................................................................... 119
C ... 122
9.1
............................................................................................................... 122
.......................................... 123
9.4
........................................... 123
9.5
......................................... 125
9.5.1
? .................................. 126
9.5.2
? .................................................... 127
8
9.6
......................................................... 129
9.6.1
? .............................. 130
10.
.................. 132
10.1
............................................................................................................... 132
10.2
? ................. 132
10.3
................................................................................... 133
10.4
......................................................................... 134
............................................................ 140
.............................................................................................................. 143
1:
.............................. 145
1 ? ................. 145
1.1 ................................................................................................ 145
2: ......................... 148
1
1.1
,
,
.
,
.
.
.
1.2
30
,
( , , .).
, ,
,
() .
,
, ,
, ,
.
, ,
.
,
.
, (Danie Krige),
(Herbert Sichel)
(Witwatersrand) .
- ,
, (Georges Matheron),
.
.
1.3
1.3.1
10
-
.
,
,
.
1.3.2
, -
. ,
. , , ,
, : 0.1%
1%. ,
.
.
1.3.3
( )
( )
, .
,
,
.
(
), ,
1.3.4
,
.
() ,
, : , , ..
, ..
. , ,
, , F.S.I.
. - (
), .
1.3.5
11
.
.
,
. 2 5
. ,
, .
1.3.6
, ,
.. ,
,
. ,
, ,
,
.
. 9
,
.
1.3.7
,
()
.
, ,
.
, ,
. ,
,
.
.
,
,
.
,
.
, ,
,
.
1.4
: ?
12
, :
? ,
?. ,
.
.
1.5
(
)
, .
,
, . ,
.
. 64 , 1
1 (.1.1.). 16- 2 2
1 , . 48
.
735
45
125
167
450
337
95
245
124
430
230
460
75
20
32
20
1.1. 1 1
2 2
16 ,
2 2 (.. ,
). 16
.
(polygonal) . 1.2.a .
16 .
, ; ,
, , ,
13
...
. 1.2.b.
735
45
125
167
337
95
245
124
430
230
460
75
20
32
20
450
a)
b)
1.2. (a) ; (b)
442
190
142
204
354
276
212
279
189
226
216
271
14
99
81
88
125
1.3.
(. 1.3.).
. ,
.
.
1.5.1
, ,
, . ,
300.
301 , 1,
299 - 1.
,
.
,
.
, . , 300 (
). . . . 1.4.a.
: 735 + 450 + 337 + 430 + 460 - 5 x 300 = 912
,
, .
2 2 . 1.4.b.
. : 505, 270,
328, 220 263 : 735, 450, 337,
430 460.
: 505 + 270 + 328 + 220 + 263 1500 = 86
912 ,
86 . -
. .
, ;
175, ,
196. ,
.
15
735
45
125
167
337
95
245
124
430
230
460
75
20
32
20
505
143
88
207
270
328
171
411
102
220
154
263
101
54
44
155
450
a)
b)
1.4. (a) (b)
. ( )
300 .
.
1.5.2
,
(.. ,
). , (505, 328
411), 344. ,
(912), ,
. - 196
175 ( ). 10% ,
- 344.
,
, . ,
, , 2- :
.
1.5.3
16
, .
.
,
( Y) ( X)
.
, ,
45 . , .
, .
=
300
300
. 1.5. .
.
300 ,
300.
, ,
, .
X=300.
.
, 300.
Y=300 .
. 2
:
1. > 300; > 300.
, .
.
17
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
100
200
300
a)
700 800
18
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
100
200
300
700 800
b)
1.6. ;
(a) (b) . ,
( = )
1.5.4
. 1 1
, : 2 2 . , ,
. 2 2 6 4-
() 1 1 . 1.4. 1.7.
, ( - 1 1
) , .
735 325 45 140 125 175 167 485
540 420 260 128 20
30
105 70
515 605
135 240 35
75
95
32
95
20
450
45
58
90
200 35
20
35
100 53
1.7. 64- () 1 1
19
,
, . 300,
1 1, - 2 2.
(..
)
,
, .
,
.
.
,
. ,
. , ,
, .
;
.
,
.
1.6
,
.
, , -
( )
.
1.6.1
(Sabourin) (1975) (Wood) (1976).
.
,
.
.
9.8 %, ,
. ,
,
. , ,
.
-
.
.
20
18 ( )
2 (Witbank Mine).
:
1. ,
2. ,
3. ,
4. .
( 133
, - 101).
( 1.1.). ,
, .
1.1. ,
(1976) 2 -
(South African Chamber of Mines).
133
101
234
3-
7,5
2,69
5,42
7,38
1,84
4,99
5,79
3,17
4,66
4,89
1,38
3,38
1.6.2
,
. , ,
(Rendu) (1979), (Krige and Magri)
(1982), - .
. 5000
(Hartebeestfontein Mine).
(25 ),
125 125 25 ,
. 25
. , 4808
.
,
,
(
() ).
21
,
( - )
. 45 .
, .
, .
, 1.0
,
.
().
, ,
, .
(Lorraine), .
.
1.6.3
(the Ore Reserve
Estimation Symposium), 1986.
, (Raymond and
Armstrong) (1986), ,
(Blackwell and Johnston),
.
, 17
. (
).
,
.
:
1.
, ..
-
.
2. ,
.
3.
, ,
, .
22
.
,
.
1.7
1.1 , ,
, ,
, .
16
. ?
( )
. (
) ,
45 (.. 1.0).
a)
30
30
20
45
10
b)
30 10
20
50
50
35
20
50
35
40
25
35
25
40
15
40
30
15
40
20
20
35
10
10
15
35
20
35
20
25
15
40
15
20
45
25
15
25
45
30
40
10
30
30
35
15
35
25
15
35
20
10
10
35
20
10
c)
55
d)
1.2. , , (a, b
c) (d)
23
2
2.1
,
. (
(the weaker intrinsic hypothesis).
.
.
,
.
.
.
2.2
,
, , ,
,
. .
.
(Genetic models).
.
,
(Jacod and Joathon) (1970 a, b)
. , ,
,
.
- .
. , , (Hu,
Joseph & Dubrule) (1994),
,
.
,
.
(Trend surfaces).
,
, ,
.
,
.
24
, ,
,
, ,
, ,
. ,
.
, (Gomez and
Hazen) (1970).
,
. ,
,
,
.
,
,
. ,
,
. .
.
(Matheron) (1963, 1965),
: ,
() ,
, .
, ,
, -
. , .
,
(drift),
. ,
-
.
, .
.
2.3
x
z(x) Z(x).
, m(x). , , z(x)
, .
Z(x).
. (:
, ).
, -
25
, ,
, .
, ..
Z(x1), Z(x2), ..., Z(xk), k, x1, x2, ..., xk.
- ,
.
.
,
. 1 .
1 : ,
.
, , , ,
.
,
- , ,
, , ;
- ;
, ; , , .
, ,
, ,
,
,
,
- ,
,
,
,
.
, ,
- (,
Cu Co), (nematode) ,
- ,
, ;
,
- .
.
2.4
(intrinsic)
, ,
.
,
26
[2.1]
-, x x+h
h, x. ,
E[Z(x) Z(x+h)]-m2=C(h)
[2.2]
,
, C(0).
,
. , ,
.
,
.
(1973) (Delfiner) (1976).
,
. , ,
.
(1978)
.
.
(1963, 1965) (intrinsic) . ,
. ,
Z(x+h)-Z(x)
x.
E[Z(x+h)-Z(x)]=0
[2.3]
Var[Z(x+h)-Z(x)]=2(h)
[2.4]
(h) ( -
).
, .
, - .
, , ,
(h) C(h) .
27
, ,
(.. )
. (
) , ,
, .
/
. ,
. ,
0.
,
,
.
2.5
,
, .
.
,
(.. ). ,
.
, ,
. -
. .
28
%S
Km
0
2.1. .
8 , , -
. 2-5 ,
, .
.
. ,
. ,
, ,
, ,
. ,
100 100,
200 60. 500 500
100 100 .
.
.
2.6
,
.
(: ,
). .
2.
29
C(0)=2
[2.5]
C(h)=C(-h)
[2.6]
C(h) C(0)
[2.7]
, ,
.
-
:
(h)=C(0)-C(h)
[2.8]
. :
[2.9]
. ,
. 2.2.
.
Y(h)
C(h)
2.2.
(),
.
2 : .
30
. m
. , :
[2.10]
C(h ) = E[(Z(x + h ) m )(Z(x ) m )]
h=0
[2.11]
C(0 ) = E[(Z(x + 0 ) m )(Z(x ) m )] = 2
.
[2.12]
C(- h ) = E[(Z(x - h ) m )(Z(x ) m )]
t=x-h,
[2.13]
C(- h ) = E[(Z(t ) m )(Z(t + h ) m )] = (h )
.
,
[2.14]
C(h ) C(0 ) C(h ) C(0 )
2
0 E {Z(x + h ) Z(x )}
C(h ) C(0 )
C(h) C(0)
[2.17]
[2.18]
(Schwartzs inequality).
, ,
. ,
. ,
. ,
.
,
(h )
=0
h h 2
lim
[2.19]
.
(1972). , ,
, h, .
31
2.7
.
( )
, - .
; .
2.1. Z(x) .
C(h). Z*
:
Z = 1 Z(x 1 ) + 2 Z(x 2 )
[2.20]
1 2 x1 x2 .
Z*?
C(h).
Z**
Z = i Z(x i )
[2.21]
Z**? ,
:
= i jC(x i x j )
( )
[2.22]
2.2. Z(x) - , Z*
100 100:
X1
X14
X2
X3
[2.23]
Z*, Z(x)
:
C(h ) = 2.5 exp( h /200 )
[2.24]
32
( ,
).
3.
.
(, , , ,
..). .
,
.
. ,
.
2 :
[3.1]
Z(x+h)-Z(x) , (h) . ,
[3.2]
x x+h n- , n 1, 2
3. , n=2 (.. ), x (x1, x2) h .
, h1 h2, ,
h .
,
. ,
. 3.1. .
(h )
3.1. , , (sill),
, (range)
34
:
- ( h=0, Z(x+h)=Z(x)).
.
- h,
- , ,
. .
.
,
.
( ), .
, . (h)
. , :
(h ) = 0.5Var [Z (x + h ) Z (x )]
[3.3]
. (. . 3.2.)
.
.
.
.
. ,
.
,
-.
.
(h )
h
3.2.
35
. h,
. . 3.3.
.
1. .
,
.
.
.
2. . ,
, , , , .
3. .. (h) , h 0.
,
.
4. . .
Z(x+h) Z(x)
h, .
. , , ,
.
,
, .
,
,
.
( ) .
, . ,
,
.
, ,
, ,
.
36
(h )
(h )
( h) h
(h) h
h 0
h 0
(h )
(h )
h
c
h
d
3.3. . (a)
;
(b) .
(c, d) ,
.
,
(..
). ,
. :
.
3.4. .
, , ,
, .
37
(h )
(h )
1
(h ) = C1 h
a2
a1
a)
( h ) = C2 h
h
b)
3.4.
,
. (. 3.5.).
( 2- ),
( ).
,
.
2
1
1
3.5. ,
,
, . 3.5. (a).
1 1 (h ) ,
:
(h ) = 1 h12 + k 2 h 22
[3.4]
h1 h2 h, k , ,
:
k=
slope 1
range 1
k =
(range , slope )
range 2
slope 2
[3.5]
38
,
.
,
. , ,
,
, 45 , . 3.5.b.
( )
. ,
,
, .
.
,
,
:
0
(h
2
1
+ h 22 + h 32
1 (h 3 )
[3.6]
(h)
(h ) = 0 (h ) + 1 (h )
[3.7]
2, ,
,
, .
, :
(h )
0 h
h2
[3.8]
(h )
h
3.6. ,
39
, ,
, h2. (. 3.6.).
2
0.5 E(Z(x + h ) Z(x )) , ,
( ) .
, . :
E[Z(x+h)-Z(x)]2
= Var[Z(x+h)-Z(x)]
+ (E[Z(x+h)-Z(x)])2
[3.9]
= + (
)2
,
.
,
. . 3.7.
,
.
. ,
. ,
.
(h )
h
3.7. ,
.
,
. ,
, .. h=0. (.. h<1 )
,
.
(.. h<100 )
.
40
, ,
( )
.
.
, ,
.
,
.
, ,
, .
,
.
,
. .
, (Serra)
(1968) (Lorraine)
.
,
.
.
, -
.
,
.
, .
.
,
, - . ,
,
. ,
, . ,
,
,
. , ,
, ,
. 5.
41
.
,
. ,
,
.
(.. ), . , Z(x)
C(h). Z*
Z* = i Z(x i )
[3.10]
i xi . ,
Var (Z *) = E(Z * E(Z *))
[3.11]
, m Z(x), E(Z *) = m i .
i
Var(Z *) = E i (Z(x i ) m ) =
i
2
2
= 1 C(x1 x1 ) + 2 C(x 2 x 2 ) + ... + 2n C(x n x n ) + 21 2 C(x1 x 2 ) + ... + 2 n 1 n C(x n 1 x n )
Var (Z *) = i j C(x i x j )
i
[3.12]
.
C(h)
.
, ,
.
.
, .
, .
=0
[3.13]
,
, +1 1.
, , ,
. 3
.
,
.
42
Var ( i Z(x i )) = i j (x i x j )
[3.14]
,
.
x1, x2, xk, 1, 2, k, i = 0 ,
3:
.
-, ,
, 0,
.
, , :
[3.15]
:
Var i Z(x i ) = i j Cov Z(x i ) Z(0), Z(x j ) Z(0 )
[3.16]
= Var[Z(x i ) Z(0 )] + Var Z(x j ) Z(0 ) 2Cov Z(x i ) Z(0), Z(x j ) Z(0 )
[3.17]
]
= Var[Z(x ) Z(0)] + Var[Z(x ) Z(0 )] Var[Z(x ) Z(x )] =
= 2(x ) + 2(x ) 2(x x )
2Cov Z(x i ) Z(0), Z(x j ) Z(0) =
i
[3.18]
[3.16], :
= j i (x i ) + i j (x j ) i j (x i x j )
..
=
i
= 0,
43
Var ( i Z(x i )) = i j (x i x j )
[3.19]
,
, 0,
[3.12]
-.
i j (x i x j ) 0
[3.20]
- .
, ,
,
,
0. , ,
. ,
, ,
.
.
,
0.
,
.
3.11
,
,
.
;
.
,
,
,
. .
,
,
. .
,
, - , . 3.8.
44
(h )
h
3.8. ,
,
,
. ,
.
, (Armstrong and Diamond)
(1984).
, ,
.
, , .
3.9., ,
. 3.11 ,
, 3.10
.
(h )
h
3.9. ,
, , ,
.
.
, ,
45
,
.
. , 3.13
, ,
.
3.12
.
,
.
.
3.12.1
0, h = 0
(h ) =
C, h > 0
[3.21]
( )
, .
3.12.2
h
h 3
3
1
C
3 , h < a
(h ) = 2 a 2 a
C, h a
[3.22]
, , .
,
:
. ,
2
,
a .
3
.
3.12.3
h
(h ) = C1 exp
[3.23]
3a.
95% .
a. ,
,
. 3.10
46
.
,
,
.
(h )
(h )
h
b.
a.
c 0<2
[3.24]
, (h ) = h , .
=0.5
=1.7
a.
b.
h 2
(h ) = C 1 exp 2
[3.25]
47
1.73a.
. ,
, .
3.12.6
,
, , ,
.
[3.26]
r=h/a.
3.12.7
(h ) = C(1 exp( r ) J 0 (2 r2 ))
[3.27]
r = h/a, r2 = h/ J0 .
.
3.12.8
.
.
sin r
[3.28]
(h ) = C1
r=h/a.
, , r
, . [sin(r)]/r
/180=0.0174532.
3.12.
3.12.9
48
1
(h ) = C1
1+ r2
, r=h/a.
1.5
[3.29]
3.12.10
[3.20]
(h ) = C1
2 0.5
1+ r
r=h/a.
.
3.13 ,
, ,
.
, -
.
, ,
, .
?
, (
) : ,
, . (. 3.13. 3.16.)
.
, .
200 200 .
- ( )
.
. ,
, 400
turning bands N(0,1).
.
(Journel) (Huijbregts) (1978) (Lantuejoul)
(1994).
, ,
,
.
, ,
.
, ,
.
. , ,
,
, .
49
,
,
.
.
, ,
,
.
, ,
.
3.14
.
.
3.1 .
300 2. h= -500
h= +500 , (-h)= (h).
y.
, ?
, ,
.
3.13. ,
3.14.
3.15. ,
3.16.
3.2
100 2.
?
500 .
.
3.3 .
, 3.1 3.2,
50
h. ,
.
3.4 .
100 2.
? h=
-500 h= +500.
, .
? ,
? ?
3.5 .
1 ,
(h)=C(0)-C(h)
, h2 x2
+y2, C(h) : exp(-x2) exp(-y2).
?
, , ,
, .
3.6 , .
.
, C, , a.
, 0.5
10. a C
,
. , C=50 a=1 5 5
.
, 10.
a C.
.
. ,
,
. ,
( .. - ).
.
3.7. , , x1 x2, 100 .
: Z*=Z(x1)+Z(x2), Z(x)
, 250
3.
, 25 250?
51
,
3.0? , 25?
3.8. :
Z* = 1Z(x1 ) + 2 Z(x 2 ) + 3 Z(x 3 ) + 4 Z(x 4 )
1, 2, 3 4 , x1, x2, x3 x4
30 40. Z(x) - 100,
4.0 1.0. Z*
, 1= 2=1.0 3= 4=-1.0.
,
? . ,
0.25?
3.9.
,
. .
0.8, 0.8
1.0. , 0,
:
Z* = Z(x1 ) 0.5 Z(x 2 ) 0.5 Z(x 3 )
1.0
x1
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.8
1.0
x2
1.0
, ,
,
(,
).
3.10 .
.
, - .
x3
52
. 3.11
.
(h )
1.0
C(h)
2
1 1, 8 6 (48 ).
+1 1 ,
. ,
.
2 .
. :
, ,
2 .
,
,
. ,
,
, .
.
.
,
.
,
.
3.11 .
,
.
, x0, [0, ],
. , Y(x),
m 2.
.
53
Y(x)
x0
, , x x+h, ,
, .
, 0, h > :
1 h / .
, E[Y(x + h ) Y(x )] = 2 , h > ,
. , , Y(x)
2/ .
2
3.12 .
.
, .
, x0 [0, ],
,
.
x0
x1
x2
x3
, Y(x)
, m
2. . ,
2 .
3.13 .
,
.
. ,
V,
V. V. ,
V V , .
Y(x) ,
D x. ,
.
: x x+h D,
, Y(x) Y(x+h) .
,
, :
xn
54
V1
V3
V2
, N(V) V,
E(Y(x + h ) Y(x )) = E[(N(V1 ) + N(V2 )) (N(V2 ) + N(V3 ))]
2
, V2,
.
V2 =
3 3h
h3
+
D 1
6 2D 2D 3
3.14 .
, .
Wi - ,
+1 1 . Y(n)
n Wi n.
n
Y(n ) = Wi
i =0
, Y(n) ,
n,
. , .
55
4.
, , . ,
,
, -
. .
,
. (outliers),
, .
:
,
:
* =
1 N (h )
[Z(x i + h ) Z(x i )]2
2N(h ) i =1
[4.1]
xi , Z(xi) N(h)
(xi, xi +h), h,
. ,
,
, .
1 .
,
, .
.
,
- , 50%,
.
,
, (),
.
,
.
(lag) ,
.
.
.
56
(Z(x i ) Z(x i + h )) ,
.
1. xi,
.
2 , . . 4.2.
2
, ,
, .
.
, ,
( )
.
, ,
, .
.
.
.
,
.
1:
[4.1],
.
5 .
8
4.1. , 5
.
(5) :
* =
1
2 2 + 2 2 + 12 + 3 2 + 12 + 2 2 + 5 2 + 6 2 + 12 + 4 2 + 12 + 3 2 = 4.625
2 12
[4.2]
, *(10) *(15) 4.82
6.00. , ,
( 4.3.). ,
;
. 4.0,
, , 5.
57
(
) (..
),
.
, 1, 7
17 70.
(5-7)2 (5-17)2 (17-2)2, (5-70)2 (70-2)2.
, .
.
2:
4.1 56 ,
.
4 .
.
,
, , .
, 2 .
4.1.
26
23
22
21
19
18
17
15
22
20
17
15
18
16
14
13
19
17
18
20
15
10
10
11
14
20
19
18
15
16
13
10
16
14
18
20
18
14
13
17
19
23
25
20
23
18
15
16
16
21
20
18
22
20
14
15
14
17
19
13
20
18
17
11
58
Z(x)
I=1, N-1
J=I+1, N
4.2. -,
10
15
59
4.3.
5. ;
.
4.2. (h )
, (N)
-
-
4.74
N(1)
56
8.49
48
10.28
N(3)
(3)
40
13.27
N(4) ( 4)
32
5.88
56
9.11
48
9.13
40
10.77
32
7.69
7.55
49
49
12.24
12.02
36
36
18.36
10.00
25
25
18.16
14.00
16
16
(1)
( 2N(2)
)
4.2.
, ,
.
, .
.
4.4.
20
18
16
14
-
-
-
-
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
4.4.
,
, .
(. 4.5.).
3
3. ,
. , .
60
4.5. ,
,
3 3
:
, ,
,
. (Chauvet) (1982)
.
,
.
.
,
1.
12 ( ): 4, 4, 1, 9, 1, 4, 25, 36,
1, 16, 1 9. 11 10
.
2. 4.6.a .
,
5. ,
,
6 .
, .
.
,
, ,
7% - 17% (. 4.6.b).
, ,
.
(..
) ,
.
4.6. ,
(a) 1 (b) - , 7
17.
61
.
( 1.0 5)
.
, ,
. :
,
,
,
,
.
( )
,
.
- ;
.
.
.
.
, (
).
, ,
.
( ),
, .
. ,
.
, .
-
.
,
. .
-, (
, ). ,
,
. -,
, ,
. -,
(.. , )
, ,
. .
62
, .
,
, ,
.
, .
(Armstrong) (1984)
. .
,
. Bowen
Basin (, 1980)
( , FSI).
,
. (. 4.7.). .
, (207
) .
.
.
,
().
, ,
.
.
4.7. .
, 2 ,
:
. : -,
,
63
, -,
,
.
, (,
)
.
. ,
.
.
""
( (Cressie) (Hawkins), 1980;
(Delfiner), 1980).
NATO,
Lake Tahoe 1983 ( Verly 1984).
- hiccups
, 40
Bowen Basin , "-
" (. 4.8.a). -, h=150 h=280
,
. ,
.
, (. 4.8.b).
. , ,
. 100 .
4.8. (a)
, (b) ,
. (160 320)
,
" ",
. 4.9
" ".
, .
,
64
, .
,
. ,
0.00001
0.5.
-0.3 +0.3, 0.5
,
. :
0.001 0.00001,
( 0.3).
"" , .
,
.
( ,
),
.
4.1 . 4.10 13 ,
5. 12
13, . , 10
, *(5)=4.7.
. ,
65
, .
.
8
4.10.
. 4.2 . 13 ,
5, (90), .
. ,
( 4.3.)
8
90
4.11. ,
. 4.3 .
35 ,
100 100 . ?
4.3. 100
100
3.6
2.8
4.1
4.6
5.3
3.8
4.2
3.6
3.5
5.2
4.5
6.1
4.4
4.0
5.1
3.8
4.9
3.3
5.7
6.2
6.3
4.2
4.0
5.6
4.2
4.9
5.3
4.4
5.
, ,
.
-,
. ? ?
?
.
,
.
,
.
.
,
.
,
1
, .
; ..
.
, -,
,
-,
, -,
.
,
. 4
.
1:
, ,
, ,
, . ,
,
.
,
, .
,
.
67
,
, :
1. ,
2. ,
,
3.
. ,
?
() ?
4. ,
,
5. ( )
.
,
, .
, ,
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. ,
, ,
, ..
.
2.
,
,
. -,
.
:
,
,
,
,
.
. 2 ,
.
.
4: .
1: .
,
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:
68
- ,
,
- ,
..,
- ..
:
- .
,
.
(, ,
,
(scatter diagrams)). :
( )
(
)
2: .
3: .
4:
. ""
, .
( ).
, ,
.
,
.
.
(
,
). ,
; ,
. .
, 2
5 /, 3 10 /. ,
2.5,
5 + 10
= 7.5 g/t
2
[5.1]
69
2
5 /
10 /
5.1.
:
2 5 + 3 10
= 8 g/t
2+3
[5.2]
(7.5 /)
,
. , ,
, ..
. .
( ) ,
. , , ,
,
: **
*.
.
. ,
, - ,
,
.
(),
. ,
, .
, ,
,
,
.
.
,
70
,
. .
.
,
,
.
, .
.
, , ..
.
.
, .
- , , .
,
.
: -
. 40
. 15
( , ,
() ) .. - .
,
, .. - . ,
,
(Wackernagel) (1995).
: - ,
, , -,
,
15.
(M. Harley), CFSG
1. ,
.
, ,
. ,
,
.
(M. Thurston), CFSG .
. ,
.
CFSG (Cycle de Formation Specialisee en Geostatistique) 9
,
1
71
(Witwatersrand) ,
.
;
15.
40 ;
, . 5.2.a. 485
15 ,
, .
.
5.2. (a) ; (b) 485
15 .
.
,
15 135. 5.1
. ,
, , -, (
5.3.a).
5
4
3
2
1
0
20
40
60 80
15m
30m
45m
60m
75m
90m
105m
120m
135m
Pairs
38S
329
284
247
209
187
169
153
139
2.75
3.57
3.82
4.49
4.56
4.97
4.77
4.80
5.13
72
(
5.3.b). (4.5);
, .
() 80 (.. 20
).
15,
. , ,
, 15;
,
.
.
5.3.a , 4.5
65-70, .
2.
2.0
4.5 65,
. 5.4.a ,
1.8
65 4.5,
(. 5.4.a,
b).
5.4.
; b -
1.8, 65
4.5, a -
.
,
.
,
15. .
5.5, , 10
65 ( ) 1.8 2.7,
. ,
.
73
5.5.: ,
; (a) 10 65,
1.8 2.7 ; (b)
1.8, 65 2.7
. ( 5.2.) ,
80.
, -, -, - -, 22.5
, .
,
. , 15 ,
. 5.6.a ,
( 5.6.b). ,
.
,
,
. ,
,
.
5.6. (a)
. ,
(b).
(. 5.7),
.
1.8 ,
,
74
2.7 65, 6
.
,
.
5.2 ,
9.
5.7.
5.2. ,
,
1.2
80
65 (40?)
1.5
400
65
- (M.
Harley)
: , ,
. ,
.
,
70 . 10 60.
170 ,
1. 5,
.
, 20 .
. ,
( ,
) (. . 5.9.d, e, f), .
,
, 3 5.
5. 5.8. 7000
. 1.13.
.
,
(. 5.9.a, b, c).
,
.
75
5.8.
0.0 5.0
76
5.9.
: (a, b c)
(d, e f)
5.3.
1-
10
30
2-
18
15
120
,
.
10% , 40%
(1-) 50%
(2-).
:
(. Thurston)
. () cmg/t,
15 15; ,
.
,
. ,
(.
5.10).
5.10.
. (
) . 5.11.
-
( 220),
.
75) 150 160 300 320.
,
77
.
, .
- ( ).
75, 150,
300.
,
. - ,
150.
, ,
,
150.
.
5.11. ; (a)
(b)
,
. ,
100 .
.
80 -
200 -.
, 35% .
,
,
, ,
.
,
,
(. 5.12).
,
. ,
.
5.12.
78
6.
(.. ),
.
: 1 1 2 2.
, ,
,
.
v V.
. ,
. ,
.
, ,
. ,
, .
,
, .
, 2- (..
50) ,
, .
, , .
, ,
? . ,
. , ,
.
,
, 1. 6.1
64 1*1,
2*2, 4-
1*1. 1000
, Sandjivy (1980). ,
(201).
..
. 2*2 16,641,
, 1*1 (27,592).
, 25%
79
.
, .
. 6.1 6.2 , .
.
.
, .
. 1,
(
), , ,
.
, , ,
,
, . 6.1 6.2.
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
6.1. 64- 1 1
72
5
62
5
52
5
42
5
32
5
22
5
12
5
25
80
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
72
5
62
5
52
5
42
5
32
5
22
5
25
12
5
6.2. 16- 2 2
6.1. (a) 1 1 (b)
- 2 2
735
325
45
140
125
175
167
485
540
420
260
128
20
30
105
70
450
200
337
190
95
260
245
278
180
250
380
405
250
80
515
605
124
120
430
175
230
120
460
260
40
135
240
35
190
135
160
170
75
95
20
35
32
95
20
450
200
35
100
59
45
58
90
505
143
88
207
270
328
171
411
102
220
154
263
81
101
54
44
155
, .
, v () V().
, , .
, z(x)
Z(x). V
,
.
mv =
1
z(x )dx
V V
[6.1]
V
s 2 (0 V ) =
1
(z(x ) m v )2 dx
V
V
[6.2]
0 .
, z(x) V
, s 2 (0 V )
:
2 (0 V ) = E s 2 (0 V )
6.3]
, :
2 (0 V ) =
1
V2
(x y )dxdy
[6.4]
, x y
_
V. (V, V ) .
2 (0 V ) = (V, V )
[6.5]
(V, V ) V. 6.1
, .
v V
82
, ,
v:
1
[6.6]
Z v (x ) = Z(x + t )dt
v v
Z v (x )
V. v , V
, v , V
.
6.3. v x V
v V 2 (v V )
:
1
2
2 (v V ) = E (Z v (x ) m v ) dx
V v
[6.7]
, :
1
1
2 (v V ) = 2 (x y )dxdy 2 (x y )dxdy = (V, V ) (v, v )
V VV
v vv
[6.8]
[6.5] [6.8] ,
.
2 (v V ) = (V, V ) (v, v ) = 2 (0 V ) 2 (0 v )
[6.9]
v, V V',
v V V' :
2 (v V') = 2 (v V ) + 2 (V V')
[6.10]
, v , V , V' -
.
, "
". ,
(. . 6.1). v 1 1,
V - 2 2.
83
:
2 (v V' ) = 12x1 = 27,592
[6.11]
2 (V V') = 2 22 = 16,641.1
[6.12]
2 (v V ) ,
. 10,951. ,
27,592-16,641 , ,
. ,
v ,
V.
:
,
,
. , ,
.
.
.
,
300 5.0.
60 100 ( v);
.
60. V 60 600.
(v, v ) (V, V ) , ,
.
(v, v ) (V, V ) . ,
.
6.1 6.2 , . :
(v, v ) = 1.05 (V, V ) = 3.40
[6.13]
2 (v V ) .
2 (v V ) = (V, V ) (v, v ) = 2.35
[6.14]
( ) 1.53.
m 2 , ,
3 (.. 2*1.53)
84
.
Chica-Olmo Laille (1984) Deraisme de Fouquent (1984).
.
:
Z(x) ,
. V
Zv (x) V. ,
:
v (h ) = (V, Vh ) (V, V )
[6.15]
Vh V, h
( h), (V, Vh )
Vh
V.
Vh
V
6.4. V, h Vh
h V,
V Vh
. , V l,
H-l h+l. , h
V, h.
, (V, Vh )
(h). :
v (h ) = (h ) (V, V )
{6.16]
85
6.5.
:
, ,
. ,
8 , - 2 .
, .
2 2 3 3 ,
(V, V ) = 11,150 2 2 (V, V ) = 13,900 3
3.
2 2
R (h ) = x (h ) 11,150
3 3
R (h ) = x (h ) 13,900
[6.17]
[6.18]
16,450 13,700 . . 6.6
.
.
6.6.
6.9
,
(V, V ) . :
V
,
Journel Huijbregts (1978) . 125-147.
86
,
.
6.1 (V, V ) .
V.-,
,
.
, ,
,
.
.
.
, ; ,
. , 100 100
; 104 108 .
25 100 200-300
.
(V, V )
(v, v ) , V 100 100 v 10 10 :
100 3.0,
50 3.0,
3.0.
, 2 2,
10 10,
(V, V ) .
6.2 (V, V ) .
,
, Journel Huijbregts (1978).
4 5 ( 128-9) (V, V )
.
(
"" ) ,
.
, 100 100,
200 3.0, 0.5
0.5 . 0.375. ,
(V, V ) = 3.0 0.375 = 1.125
87
(V, V ) (v, v ) , V
100 100 v - 10 10, :
100 3.0,
50 3.0,
3.0 ( = 0).
,
.
6.3 (V, V ) .
(V, V ) ,
[6.4]. V d ( ).
C, ,
(d, d ) = C d/3 . , (h ) = C h .
(d, d ) ,
C 3.
(d, d ) ,
C.
6.4 . (V, V )
(v, v ) , ,
10 10 100 100 ,
:
100 3.0,
50 3.0,
3.0 ( = 0).
6.5 .
4 10 10
5. 4-
(.. 40 10 5) ,
,
.
.
100 3.0.
6.6 .
5
50, 1.0 0.05.
15,
.
. -, (d, d ) , d
15,
5 15 .
7.
7.1
.
,
. ""
. :
(ordinary kriging, OK), ,
,
(simple kriging, SK), , .
.
, OK SK.
,
.
, .
7.2
.
, .
.
:
.
,
.
.
, ,
. , ,
.
.
.
, ,
. , ,
, .
"" , .
. . (Dr D.G. Krige),
,
, .
. (Prof. G. Matheron) ,
. ,
( ).
, ,
.
89
7.3
: N z(x1), ,
z(xN) ,
Z(x). ,
Z(x0), . (
, ,
.)
, :
zv =
1
z(x )dx
V V
[7.1]
V , ,
, ,
. .
5.
Z(V), :
z*V = i z(x i )
[7.2]
i .
,
, .
. ..
, .
:
Z *V = i Z(x i )
[7.3]
, :
: E Z *V Z V = 0
: Var Z *V Z V - .
.
7.4
, Z(x)
, m .
(OK).
( )
, , ,
.
90
5:
?
,
. .
. "V"
, , , .
,
, , .
,
V (V, V ) (x, V ) .
,
.
,
.
, ,
m. ,
, m .
SK.
, ,
.
91
7.5
. Z(x)
m. m ,
.
E[Z(x )] = m = E[Z V ]
[7.4]
, , -
:
Z *V = i Z(x i )
[7.5]
Z *V Z V :
E i Z(x i ) Z v = i m m = m i 1
[7.6]
,
, m=0, 1.
( ).
m , 1. 2
. Z *V Z V
, :
2 = i j C(x i , x j ) + C (V, V ) 2 i C (x i , V ) =
= 2 i (x i , V ) i j (x i , x j ) (V, V )
[7.7]
(x i , V ) - xi V, ..
(x i , V ) =
1
(x i x )dx
V V
, 1, 0,
. 0,
1 Z(V).
2
92
X
X
Xi
6, (V, V )
x x',
V.
X
V
(V, V ) =
1
V2
(x x )dxdx
C (x i , V ) C (V, V ) .
,
1,
. 1.0,
.
= Var Z*V Z V 2 ( i 1)
[7.8]
.
N+1 , .
6 .
:
(x , x ) + = (x , V ) i = 1,2,..., N
N
j=1
[7.9]
=1
93
, :
2K = i (x i , V ) (V, V ) +
[7.10]
, ,
[7.7].
:
C(x , x ) + = C(x , V )
N
j=1
i = 1,2,..., N
[7.11]
=1
6:
:
= 2 i (x i , V ) i j (x i , x j ) (V, V ) + 2 (1 i )
.
, .
, N .
0 = x i x j iV = (x i V ) ,
= 21 1V + 2 2 2V + 23 3V
12 11 + 22 22 + 23 33 + 21 2 12 + 213 13 + 2 2 3 23
(V , V ) + 2 (1 1 2 3 )
d
= 21V [2 1 11 + 2 2 12 + 2 3 13 + 2 ] = 0
d 1
1 11 + 2 12 + 3 13 + = 1V
2 3
1 12 + 2 22 + 3 23 + = 2V
1 13 + 2 23 + 3 33 + = 3V
1 + 2 + 3 = 1
- :
94
(x , x ) + = (x , V ) i = 1,2,..., N
N
j=1
=1
N
, 1
N, 1 3. .
=-.
:
2K = C (V, V ) i C (x i , V )
[7.12]
, : AX=B.
11
21
N1
12
22
N2
1
1N
2N
NN
1
1 1 (x 1 , V )
1 2 (x 2 , V )
1 N (x N , V )
0 1
[7.13]
- , ,
A - .
A-1. , ,
. ,
. :
2K = X T B (V, V )
(XT =X )
[7.14]
A .
7.6 OK
OK
. ,
Z(x) , .
,
, .
:
E[Z(x + h ) Z(x )] = 0
[7.15]
95
7.7 :
Z2
Z1
Z3
Z5
Z4
7.1.
(200 200), 5
200 . ,
2.0 250.
, (V, V ) (V, x ) .
[7.17]
. 5,
6 6.
96
11
21
31
41
51
12
22
32
42
52
1
13
23
33
43
53
1
14
24
34
44
54
1
15
25
35
45
55
1
1 1 (x 1 , V )
1 2 (x 2 , V )
1 3 (x 3 , V )
=
1 4 (x 4 , V )
1 5 (x 5 , V )
0 1
[7.18]
,
. , (x 2 , x 3 )
200 2 .
, .
:
0 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1 1 0.88
1.89
0
2
2
2 1 2 1.86
1.89
2
0
2
2 1 3 1.86
1.89
2
2
0
2
1
4 1.86
1.89
2
2
2
0 1 5 1.86
1
1
1
1
0 1
1
[7.19]
1 = 0.60
2 = 3 = 4 = 5 = 0.10
[7.20]
= 0.12
:
Z * = 0.60Z1 + 0.10(Z 2 + Z 3 + Z 4 + Z 5 )
[7.21]
:
2K = i (V, x i ) + (V, V ) = 0.26
[7.22]
. , ,
1.5,
1.5,
0. ,
, ,
;
.
97
7.8
, -
.
m. m ,
,
N
m * = mi Z(x i )
[7.23]
i =1
,
. ,
= 0. ..
E m * m = E mi Z(x i ) m = 0
i =1
Z(x) m, ,
N
i =1
mi
=1
[7.24]
[7.25]
,
. ,
C(x , x ) =
j=1
mj
i =1
mi
i = 1,2,..., N
=1
[7.26]
.
, .
( )
2K = Var m * = m
7.9
[7.27]
98
, m
. -, ,
Y(x) . ,
Z(x)=Y(x)+m. Y(x):
N
YV* = i Y(x i )
i =1
[7.28]
,
.
,
. ,
0. ..
E YV* YV = E i Y(x i ) YV = 0
i =1
[7.29]
Y(x) 0,
. .
= i j C(x i , x j ) = C (x i , V ) i = 1,2,..., N
j
[7.30]
,
.
C(x , x ) = C(x , V )
N
j=1
i = 1,2,..., N
[7.31]
:
N
2
= C (V ,V ) i C (x i , V )
SK
[7.32]
i =1
[7.32] , ,
YV. ZV Y(x) Z(x)-m. :
Z *V = YV* + m = i [Z(x ) m ] + m =
= i Z(x i ) + m 1 i = i Z(x ) + m M
M .
[7.33]
99
, .
, , ,
,
.
(, ),
, . .
,
.
8.
[7.33], ,
. ,
, ,
. - .
(Journel, 1977).
7.10
, ,
( ) ,
( ). ,
. ,
. , m
SK OK.
7. .
:
M m =
[7.34]
2
2
2
OK
= SK
+ ( M ) Var m *
[7.35]
( )
OK SK
. ,
:
, ,
,
. -
.
7:
SK
Z *V = i Z(x i ) + m M
m m*.
M,
100
Z *V = Z(x i )[ i + M im ]
[7.36]
OK . OK
, OK,
. , [7.36]
. -, ,
1.0.
[ +
i
mi ] = i + M = 1
[7.37]
= 1 . , [7.11]
C(x , x ) = C (x , V ) j = 1,2,..., N
i =1
mi
[7.38]
i i+Mm :
( +
i =1
[7.39]
SK
C (x j , V ) .
[7.26]
( +
i =1
M m .
mi )C(x i , x j ) = C (x i , V ) + M m
[7.40]
, M m = = , ,
.
[7.36] OK.
, i = i + M mi
,
OK:
( )
2
2
OK
= SK
+ ( M ) Var m *
2
[7.41]
7.11
,
. Z *V Z V ,
. ,
; ..
[7.42]
E Z V Z *V = Z *V
, Z V Z *V
1.0.
101
7.2. , (a)
(b)
, , -
, E Z *V - Z V = 0 ,
. , ,
,
, .
Z V Z *V
OK. Z V Z *V ;
E Z V Z *V , , Z *V ,
. ,
, , OK
. , , p,
[ ]
p = Cov Z V , Z V* /Var Z *V
[7.43]
[7.44]
i j C (x i , x j )
[7.45]
Z *V = i Z(x i ) + m 1 i
[
]
Var[Z ] =
Cov Z V , Z*V = j C (x i , V )
*
V
102
SK .
1.0. :
3
[
]
Var[Z ] = C (x , x )
Cov Z V , Z *V = j C (x i , V )
*
V
..
C(x , V ) = C (x , x ) +
j
Cov Z V , Z
*
V
] + = Var[Z ] ,
*
V
[7.47]
, , p Z V Z *V
Cov Z V , Z*V
p=
Cov Z V , Z*V
] )
[7.48]
, .
, .
1.0. ,
,
.
7.12
(,
), ,
. ,
, ,
. ,
.
, 5
OK 200 200.
( )
, . ,
, .
.
, Z V Z V Z V .
. -, ,
.
3
103
1.89
2
0
2
2 1 3 1.89
=
2
2
0
2 1 4 1.89
1.89
1.89
2
2
2
0 1 5 1.89
1
1
1
1
0 1
1
[7.49]
1 = 1.0
2 = 3 = 4 = 5 = 0
=0
[7.50]
.
. , ,
,
. ,
.
(.. , ),
, .
(variogram
crossvalidation procedure). ,
,
, ,
, ,
.
.
7.13
,
.
, ,
V.
, .
, , C(h)
.
7.13.1
.
,
104
a=
[7.53]
b=
c = C(1,2 )
1 C (1,2 )
[7.54]
[7.55]
, d - .
. 7.3
, . ,
, . ,
, a b
, d. SK
, a b SK , d
SK. ()
"".
7.3. ,
;
105
7.4. , OK: 1 + 2 = 1 ,
isovariance . ,
, OK.
,
. -
1, .. 1 + 2 = 1 . 7.4
2 = 1 - 1 , (0,1) (1,0),
. ,
. OK ,
OK. ,
, . , OK
SK.
. 2 = 1 - 1
2 12 (1 c ) 2 1 (a b + 1 c ) + d 2
[7.56]
,
2
ab
+ 0.5 + K
= 2(1 c ) 1
2(1 c )
,
, :
ab
1 =
+ 0.5
2(1 c )
[7.57]
[7.58]
,
OK.
7.14
7.1 .
(1,0) (2,0)
106
(x,y).
1.0.
. , N .
.
. ,
.
.
,
?
7.2 . ,
(1,0) (2,0),
(x,y). 2.0
0.75. ,
1 20 10
1 20
1 = + 10
+
2
2 12
2
2 12
[7.59]
20 10
, 12
.
1 =
0.75 (.. )
.
, 0.5. ,
. , ,
.
7.3 .
(1,0) (2,0),
(x,y). 2.0
- 1.
. ,
4, .
,
.
7.4 .
, (1,0) (2,0), .
(x,0), x. ,
, , (1,0),
1.0, - , ,
.
107
,
. ,
1, - . ,
.
. ,
"". .
, ,
. :
.
(Markovian property).
,
. , ,
.
(the Black & Scholes model).
7.5
. , (1,0)
(2,0). -
.
(1,y),
. ,
. , /
, - . ,
.
x2
y2
[7.60]
C(h ) = exp 2 exp 2 h 2 = x 2 + y 2
a
a
,
x
y
C(h ) = exp exp
a
a
h 2 = x 2 + y 2
[7.61]
108
8
8.1
:
, ,
,
.
.
(,
),
.
.
,
.
,
() ,
(,
1.0).
.
. ,
.
(.. - )
( )
, , ,
,
. , ,
() ,
, .
.
.
( ,
),
. .
- "",
.
.
.
.
, .
,
109
, , -
.
. .
:
,
.
.
. .
,
.
, ,
. (
,
, ,
,
).
,
.
( 1.5),
.
1. ,
P1, P2, P3 P4, 1
. P0.
. 8.1.
P1
P2
P0
P3
P4
110
3 ;
- 1.38. ,
, . 8.1 ,
. P2
P3 (2), P1 P4 (1) .
8.1. ,
. , . 8.1.
+ .
1.5
.
. .
.
.
-0.047
-0.083
0.008
0.010
0.547
0.583
0.492
0.490
0.201
0.227
0.563
0.590
( c 1.5 ),
.
( 25 %
) , ,
. ,
, (
) , ,
. , ,
, ,
( ).
2.
.
,
.
, 100 100 5
, .
200 2.0.
, ,
, ,
, 1.0.
(-50,50)
(50,50)
*
*(0,0)
(-50,-50)
(50,-50)
*
*
(51,51)
111
8.2.
8.2 5 6
. , 4
5 6
. ()
5 . .
5 6 . ,
6 ,
.
,
,
.
8.2.
5 6
(0,0)
(-5(),-50)
(-50,50)
(50,-50)
(50,50)
(51,51)
0.43()
0.141
0.141
0.141
0.141
0.085
0.436
0.141
0.141
0.141
0.152
-0.011
0.085
,
.
.
.
,
: (,
) , ()
. , , ,
, , ,
, , .
, Barnes (1984)
Chauvet (1988).
, ,
.
,
112
,
.
,
. ,
.
,
: 2.06
a=30 ( 100)
1.0 40 100
. ,
100 100 5 ( ).
8.3 ,
.
8.3. ; (a)
40 100 1.0, (b)
30 2.06
8.3.
, 100 100
0.338
0.339
0.165
0.165
0.285
0.299
,
.
,
, , ,
,
. ,
,
. ,
.
113
.
2
400
b
600
0
0
200
400
a
600
200
8.4.
; (a) 200, 2.0 (b)
2.0
8.4 ,
,
. , (I)
2.0 200 ( )
(2) 2.0. -
,
, : ,
- .
*Z2
*Z3
*Z5
*Z1
*Z4
0.20
0.540
0.20
0.115
0.40
0.290
114
8.4.
.
, .
.
, ,
,
.
,
.
9.
5 .
. , ,
. 9,
200 200. 8.5
.
8.5. 9
0.11
0.51
0.11
0,08
0.11
0.04
0.22
0.26
5 , ,
, .
, ,
,
,
.
.
.
. ,
, .
, , .
- ( )
, , ,
. ,
115
.
.
*
8,2
2,6
0,8
0,8
0,5
0,8
0,8
0,8
1,2
7,0
1,2
0,8
116
8,2
56,7
8,2
0,5
7,0
56,0
7,0
0,5
2,6
8,2
2,6
0,8
1,2
7,0
1,2
0,8
0,8
0,8
0,5
2 = 0,20
0,8
0,8
3,3
3,3
3,3
3,3
3,3
2 = 0,22
, =100,
=2
9,4
9,4
9,4
3,3
3,3
3,3
3,3
3,3
9,4
25,0
9,4
3,3
3,3
19,0
3,3
3,3
9,4
9,4
9,4
3,3
3,3
3,3
3,3
3,3
3,3
3,3
3,3
3,3
2 = 0,25
3,3
,
=2
4,0
4,0
4,0
4,0
4,0
11,1
11,1
11,1
4,0
4,0
4,0
4,0
4,0
11,1
11,1
11,1
4,0
4,0
4,0
4,0
4,0
11,1
11,1
11,1
4,0
4,0
4,0
4,0
4,0
4,0
4,0
4,0
4,0
2 = 0,08
4,0
2 = 0,35
2 = 0,22
8.7.
2-
,
.
.
.
- . ,
,
5 ,
. .
*Z2
*Z3
*Z1
*Z5
*Z4
8.8.
117
, S
.
Z1, S,
, :
1
1
0 1
[8.1]
,
, .
[8.2]
(Z1 , Z1 ) = 0 , (Z1 , V ) = 0.88
1
[8.3]
(Z1 , S) = [(Z1 , Z 2 ) + ... + (Z1 , Z 5 )] = 1.89
4
1
1
(S, S) = [(Z 2 , Z 2 ) + ... + (Z 5 , Z 5 )] = (0 ) + 2 100 2 + (200 ) = 1.5 [8.4]
16
4
1
[8.5]
(S, V ) = [ (Z 2 , V ) + ... + (Z 5 , V )] = (Z 2 , V ) = 1.86
4
3 3 6 6:
0 1.89 1 1 0.88
1.89 1.50 1 = 1.86
1
1
0 1.00
[8.6]
[8.7]
2K , .
6 6 3 3 - .
, ,
,
, , ,
.
.
,
( ),
,
.
.
118
, .
*Z2
*Z3
*Z1
*Z5
*Z4
8.9.
, , ,
,
.
, , . 8.10,
500 - 250
.
.
Z3 Z5 , Z2 Z4,
.
.
*Z2
*Z2
*Z3
*Z1
*Z5
*Z3
*Z4
*Z1
*Z5
*Z4
8.10.
,
, ,
. ,
.
, , .
7 ,
Z *V = i Z(x i ) + m * M
[8.8]
119
m* - ,
SK ,
SK :
( )
2
2
OK
= SK
+ ( M ) Var m *
[8.9]
2
, ,
M ( 0),
Z(x), .. , m.
.
SK .
, SK ,
OK SK .
. , SK ,
OK SK. Rivoirard (1984, 1987)
, , ,
. ,
.
- 20 5
5 5. ,
.
. ,
,
? 8.11 .
20m
20m
5m
* 5m
8.11.
, - 1.0
20. 0.368, 0.114. 0.531 0.863,
SK 0.623 ( ) 0.255.
,
.
120
, ,
"".
().
,
. (
) ,
. ,
,
1.0.
Z*ij i- ,
j- , *ij -
. - Zi,
Z *ij Z i . :
E Z *ij Z i = 0
[8.10]
Z *ij Z i
=0
E
ij
[8.11]
Z *ij Z i
=1
Var
ij
[8.12]
:
(Z*ij Z i )
[8.13]
Z *ij Z i
ij
[8.14]
(Z
*
ij
Zi
ij2
[8.15]
(.. )
,
() .
, ,
, "".
.
, ,
,
(.. , ).
,
121
,
.
122
9 c
5
. ,
, - .
, .
, , .
,
,
.
9.2
, , 500
15 40 .
1.8
.
9.1.
, ,
.
,
. ,
. .
9.1. ,
,
1.8
1-
1.2
80
65
2-
1.5
400
65
7.14.1
80,
100
100. 15, .
19 , 12
36 .
( 10 10
) , , (15).
.
123
9.3
,
( ,
()). 40%
, ,
.
8
80 .
500 300. 9.5
, ,
.
9.1 (
14), . ,
, ,
( 8 ). 9.2
() .
- , ,
,
. 9.2
.
9.4
, ,
100 100.
,
(V, x ) (V, V ) .
6 6 1.
, 1.
9.3 9.4
, 9.3 .
, .
, ,
,
. ,
. ,
, .
9.2.
7501
59.12
56.84
0.704
52.91
124
7501
1.655
2.380
2.127
0.103
9.1. 14,
8 , - 80
- 8
9.2. 14.
9.3.
7501
53.27
5S.97
56.S4
0.605
7501
0.720
1.636
1.238
0.166
125
9.3. 14,
8 , - 80
- 8
9.4. 14.
.
1.655,
1.636. - ,
, .
9.5
9.3
, . ,
, ,
. 9.5 ,
. , - ,
? , ,
.
126
,
.
9.5. ,
9.5.1
, ,
,
. 2 5 12 14.
9.4 ,
, .
3 .
. .
9.4. , ,
(12,5,14): = 54.83, = 2.14
1
2
3
. X
. Y
. Z
-1450
-1450
-1450
-995
-995
-995
17.25
18.75
15.75
35.1%
32.4%
32.4%
56.6
56.9
51.05
1
2
3
. X
. Y
. Z
-1475
-1475
-1475
-1092
-1092
-1092
17.25
15.75
18.75
32.3%
33.8%
33.8%
55.0
54.25
51.85
. Y
. Z
127
1
2
3
-1494
-1295
-1295
-1195
-1236
-1236
20.25
17.25
18.75
35.3%
36.6%
28.1%
51.6
57.0
56.1
1
2
3
. X
. Y
. Z
-1319
-1319
-1319
-1330
-1330
-1330
17.25
18.75
20.25
44.1%
27.9%
28.0%
58,9
58,6
58.65
9.5 14
(: 2 5, : 10 14).
. , ,
.
, ,
.
, -
. (Renard)
(Yancey) (1984),
, ,
. ,
- "" ,
.
9.5. (: 2 5, :
10 14) 14. 3
55.38
54.83
54.83
53.95
54.03
55.66
53.82
53.68
55.47
55.29
57.41
53.34
55.05
56.61
56.57
53.72
55.03
58.75
58.76
55.70
9.5.2
,
.
128
. ,
5 9,
, .
,
.
. 9.6 ,
(12, 4, 14).
129
9.7. ,
4- , , , 3 .
, ,
.
. , ( 9.1) ,
8 , ,
- . ,
.
9.6
- .
, .
,
.
, .
,
.
.
, Journel Huijbgrets (1978), (David) (1977,
1988), (Royle) (1979) (Clark) (1982), ,
,
. (Ravenscroft)
(1990)
. 2 2,
10 10.
, 1. 9.8 a b
, .
130
.
. ,
(Baafi)
(Schofield) (1997),
(Dowd) (1994), Diitrakopoulos (1994) Soares (1993).
9.6.1
,
, ,
. ,
, .
, ,
. ,
40 40 15 50 50 15.
,
.
,
.
9.9.a ,
100 100, , ,
. .
131
,
, .
, 9.9.b. ,
,
; , (2),
, (3), - ,
. ,
, ,
, , .
, .
(2)
(3)
9.9. 50 50
, 100 100. (a)
, (b) ,
(2) (3), , ,
. (a)
132
10.
,
(
),
. ,
. ,
;
. ,
(),
.
, ,
. ,
.
,
,
"" .
?
,
.
, ; ..
, .
" "
,
.
, , .
: (1)
, (2),
(,
). ,
.
( )
, , , 100-200
, .
.
. ( )
,
. (1973)
, .
. ,
133
,
.
.
( ,
).
,
. ,
,
.
,
V; .. :
Z(V ) =
1
Z(x )dx
V V
[10.1]
,
v. V
, v .
Z(V) Z(v), :
Z(v ) =
1
Z(x )dx
v v
[10.2]
Z(v),
Z(V). ? -, Z(x)
, Z(v) - Z(V).
v V.
2E (v, V ) , , - 2E .
- Z(V) Z(v).
" "
,
. " "
,
.
:
2E (v, V ) =
2
1
(x y )dxdy 2
vV v V
v
[10.3]
1
(x x )dxdx V (x y )dydy
v v
V V
134
[10.4]
V
v
v, v
V, V
v, V
10.1.
[10.4] v V. ,
v V. ,
:
( ),
V,
v,
v V.
:
2E (v, V ) = [ (v, V ) (V, V )] + [ (v, V ) (v, v )]
[10.5]
, ,
:
v V.
v=V, 2E (v, V ) = 0 .
, .. .
, .
.
2E [v V ]
(v, V ) .
; v
2
E
135
V.
, ,
.
:
, v
V.
( )
, .
, ,
- (,
). ,
.
,
.
,
( ). ,
, ,
, , 1/N,
N . :
1
Z * (V ) = Z i
N
[10.6]
2
1
(x i y )dy 2
NV i
V
[10.7]
(y y)dydy N (x
1
xj)
N , .
, ,
. . 10.2 N
. Z(vi) ,
i- .
*
136
10.2.
, , ,
, :
N [Z(v ) - Z ]
1
[10.8]
, .
, ,
. , (1973, 1977, . 201), ,
.
(Z i Z(v i ))
= 1
2EST = Var
N2
N
[10.9]
Var(Z
Z(v i ))
Var (Z i Z(v i ))
vi.
,
1
2EST = 2E (0, v )
N
[10.10]
.
( : , vi
. Journel Huijbregts (1978)
415-417).
.
, .
3:1,
, .
, ,
.
,
. ,
(. 10.2),
137
2:1,
. 10.3.
10.3.
,
. ,
, , , ,
,
() .
,
. ,
, ,
.
. 10.4 .
d1 d2.
s, n1=d1/s
. ,
.
. v1 v2.
V .
Z(V) ,
V. , Z(vi) Z(di) -
vi di. ,
, Z(di).
Z(V), Z(di) vi.
, v1/d1 = v 2 /d 2
v Z(d ) d Z(d )
=
Z (V ) =
v
d
i
[10.11]
138
d1
* *
d2
* *
v2
V = v1 + v2
10.4. () d1 d2
, Z(V)
v Z(v ) d Z(v )
=
Z(V ) =
v
d
i
[10.12]
, - Z(di)- Z(vi):
d [Z(d ) - Z(v )]
Z (V ) - Z(V ) =
d
i
[10.13]
2E = Var Z * (V ) Z(V ) =
d
2
i
2
Ei
di
[10.14]
2Ei
. ,
di.
.
, Z*(di)
ni :
v1
139
Z* (d i ) = Z(s k )/n i
[10.15]
Z*(V)-Z(V)
.
[10.16]
,
. , Z(sik)
Z*(sik) k-
i- , ,
d
i
/ ni Z * (s ik ) - Z(s ik )
k
[10.17]
i
, ,
. :
2E =
d
2
i
2
Ei
di
d (O, s )/n
2
i
di
[10.18]
N ( N = n i )
2E =
2
i
2Ei
di
2 (O, s )
N
[10.19]
,
,
,
2 (O, s )
N
[10.20]
,
,
. ,
, .
140
.
,
- .
,
,
, .
10.5.
. .
. 10.5 , 48 .
( ),
.
.
(1971 a b)
A:
2A
1
= 2
2
A
N
[10.21]
N2
( N 1 )2
+ 0.061
N2
6
N () (
17). N1 N2
. , N1 N2
2. , N1
N2. 12 10
. N1=6 N2=5,
2A
1
= 2
2
A
17
[10.22]
5
(6)2
+
0.06
5
6
141
(6.6%)2, .
, N1 N2
,
(). . 10.6.
. .
, Journel Huijbregts
(1978) . 428-438.
.
10.6.
()
. 10.6
. N1 N2.
,
16, 6 ,
22. - , 26
(20+6). , N1 13 N2 11.
.
, ,
.
"" ,
(),
.
.
,
.
,
( )
4 4. ,
.
16 1 64
500 , . 10.7.
142
10.7.
500
,
1500 1.0 ,
200 0.4.
1
,
.
:
2E (0 v ) = 0.27
= 0.38
:
= 0.27/16=0.0169
2E
= 0.38/16=0.0238
500
500 :
= 0.0020
2E
= 0.0055
, (..
, , ).
( ) .
, ,
, 95%
. 1000
6.6% , 61.2% .
(1500
300). ,
, .
143
. 10.6.
1000
0,033
0,309
500
0,011
0,148
(
) .
, ,
(), . ,
1000
,
.
,
, ,
, .
,
.
10.1.
200 200
1000 2000.
500 3.25.
? .
250 4.65 1.35.
.
50 , , ,
.
, .
10.2. 200
200
1600 2000.
5.
500
100 .
? .
10.3. 4 4
10 4 .
, ,
144
500 10.1
3.9.
10.4.
. 80
50 50 (. 10.8).
() .
.
N, N1 N2, .
, ,
10.6, .
, , ,
.
10.8.
).
1:
1
?
:
( ),
, ..
,
,
,
.
,
. .
1.1
(..
)
. ,
Z*0 = 1Z1 + 2 Z 2 + ... + 10 Z10
.
, 1, 2, , 10, - .
:
[ ]
Var[Z ] = Var[Z ] + Var[Z ] + ... +
2
1
2
2
2
10
Var[Z10 ] +
.
.
.
x0, :
Z *0 Z 0 = 1 Z1 + 2 Z 2 + ... + 10 Z10 Z 0
146
-
( -1).
:
[ ]
2
Var Z = 12 Var[Z1 ] + 22 Var[Z 2 ] + ... + 10
Var[Z10 ] + 12 Var [Z 0 ]
*
0
2 3 ,
( ),
. 7 ,
.
1.2
()
.
.
.
( ).
, ,
:
[ ]
10
10
i =1
2
i
2
Var[Z i ] = 12 Var[Z1 ] + 22 Var[Z 2 ] + ... + 10
Var[Z10 ]
. ,
:
2 i j Cov (Z i , Z j ) = 2( 1 2 Cov[Z1 , Z 2 ] + ... + 9 10 Cov[Z 9 , Z10 ])
9
10
i =1 j>i
.
.
1.3
1. :
147
N
,
,
,
[
]
Var
Z
1
N
Z
i i
i
i
i ,
i =1
i =1
i =1
i =1
5
2
i
n =1
H n (y )
2. :
5
5
N N N N
,
i j ij
i j , i j
i =1 j-1
i =1 j=1 i =1 j-1
3. , :
2
N N
N
N 1 N
N
2
+
2
i j
i j
i
i
i =1 j=1
i =1
i =1 j>i
i =1
4. , :
N
N N
Var i Z i = i j Cov Z i , Z j
i =1
i =1 j=1
148
2:
2.1
,
.
, .
()
. , ,
, .
,
. Williamson-Noble
Lawrence (1994),
: 20,000$ 5 .
.
2.2
, ,
( ..)
.
?
, ,
,
.
,
. ,
()
.
2.3
(1)
.
.
(2) .
, ,
.
(3) ,
. , . ,
.
149
, 5 .
, ,
.
.
(4)
( , ,
.. ..).
, (
, .).
, ,
.
(5)
.
.
.
. .
( ) .
(6)
, , .
( )
, . . ,
.
( ) . ,
, ..
.
. ,
.