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Column Labels

1877-92 1893-02 1903-06 1907-11 1914-16 1920-29 1932-37 1942-46 1948-61 1962-68 1970-73 1974-87 1987-00 2000 ->
Row Labels Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change
Bear 12 -28.53% 14 -22.93% 14 -26.18% 22 -34.75% 42 -20.44% 49 -47.10% 33 -76.80% 62 -48.31% 22 -35.38% 6 -21.76% 18 -31.67% 23 -50.06% 4 -26.68% 103 -51.76%
Recovery 9 40.53% 24 30.29% 15 38.05% 17 55.75% 10 28.68% 44 97.10% 53 340.07% 36 94.40% 32 59.53% 11 28.80% 29 50.46% 121 103.01% 20 40.95% 5 49.40%
Bull 170 338.47% 85 112.81% 12 21.34% 26 21.17% 13 4.75% 61 317.26% 3 4.66% 12 31.60% 134 386.01% 67 55.00% 2 2.84% 31 93.96% 132 301.46% 0 0.00%

Market Cycles ‐ Real Returns Monthly Data (after Inflation & Div) ‐ Prices Normalized to Year 2000‐$


5000%
400%
300%
% Change S&P Comp

Assumes March 9 
200%

was the bottom of 
this cycle! Bull
Recovery
100%

Bear

103
12

14

14

22

42

49

33

62

22

18

23
6

4
0%

170

24

85

15
12

17
26

10
13

44

61

53

36
12

32

134

11

67

29
2

121

31

20

132

5
0
‐100%

1877‐92 1914‐16 1970‐73 1974‐87 1987‐00 2000 ‐>


1893‐02 1903‐ 1907‐11 1920‐29 1932‐37 1942‐46 1948‐61 1962‐68
06

Period (Months)
Column Labels
1872 1882
1872-1882 1885 1902
1885-1902 1903 1906
1903-1906 1907 1909
1907-1909 1921 1929
1921-1929 1932 1956
1932-1956 1957 tto 61 1962 66
1962-66 1966 68
1966-68 1970 74
1970-74 1974 -1982
1982 1982 87
1982-87 1987 1990
1987-1990 1990 2000
1990-2000 2002 07
2002-07 2007 -
Row Labels Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change Month(s) %Change
Bear 69.0 -38.61% 33 -31.09% 14.0 -29.04% 14.0 -37.69% 140.1 -37.38% 33.0 -84.76% 14.7 -21.63% 6.4 -27.97% 7.9 -22.18% 17.9 -36.06% 20.7 -48.20% 20.4 -27.11% 3.3 -33.54% 2.9 -19.92% 27.7 -42.29% 17.0 -56.70%
Recovery 31.0 62.89% 164 46.74% 16.0 44.11% 21.0 62.88% 41.1 64.03% 267.2 559.33% 11.1 27.60% 14.3 38.84% 6.9 28.50% 21.4 56.40% 69.5 93.06% 2.8 37.20% 19.8 50.46% 4.6 24.87% 58.4 73.27% 4.7 45.89%
Bull 24.0 20.46% 43 40.25% 18.0 10.83% 4.0 1.18% 56.0 195.84% 23.0 58.16% 38.6 46.04% 29.2 29.49% 18.9 15.21% 10.2 10.95% 4.4 16.87% 57.7 139.66% 11.6 9.56% 109.0 314.00% 4.4 2.29% 0.0 0.00%

Market Cycles ‐ Nominal Monthly Data 
600%
400%
&P Comp

B ll
Bull
% Change S&

200%
%

Recovery
Bear
140.1
69.0

33.0

14.0

14.0

33.0

14.7

17.9

20.7

20.4

27.7

17.0
6.4

7.9

3.3

2.9
0%
%

164.0

267.2

109.0
31.0

24.0

43.0

16.0
18.0

21.0
4.0

41.1

56.0

23.0

11.1

38.6

14.3
29.2

6.9
18.9

21.4
10.2

69.5

4.4

2.8

57.7

19.8
11.6
4.6

58.4

4.4

4.7
0.0
1932‐1956 1957 
1903‐ 1962‐ 1966‐68 2002‐07 2007 ‐
1921‐1929
‐200%

1872‐1882 1885‐1902 1907‐ to 61 1970‐ 1982‐87


1906 66 1974 ‐1982 1987‐ 1990‐2000 
1909 74 1990

Period (Months)
Period (Months)

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