SMAM

351 Exam 1 Name_____________________ 1. An aircraft manufacturer monitors the viscosity of primer paint. Here is the viscosity during a particular time period.
33.5 33.3 33.4 33.3 34.7 34.8 34.6 35.0 34.8 34.5 34.7 34.3 34.6 34.5 35.0

A. Complete the stem and leaf display(4 points)

33 33 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 35

3 4 3 5

3 5 7 8 0

5 6 6 7 8 0

B. Make a five number summary.(4 points) 33.3 33.9 34.6 34.75 35 or 33.3 33.5 34.6 34.8 35

C. Determine whether there are any outliers and find them.(5 points) IQR x1.5 =1.275 or IQRx1.5 =1.95 No outliers

D. Draw a boxplot. (4 points) 2. The probability that an American industry will locate in Shanghai, China is 0.7. The probability that it will locate in Beijung, China is 0.4. The probability that it will locate in both cities is 0.3. If the industry does not locate in Shanghai or Beijung it will locate in some other country. What is the probability that the industry will A. locate in at least one of the two Chinese cities.(5 points) S=locate in Shanghai B=locate in Beijing P(S)=0.7 P(B)=0.4 P(S B) = 0.3 P(S B) = P(S) + P(B) P(S B) = .7 + .4 .3 = .8 B. not locate in China.(5 points)

1 P(S B) = 1 .8 = .2
C. will locate in only one of the two cities in China?(5 points)

P(S B) P(S B) = .8 .3 = .5

3. A government task force suspects that some manufacturing companies are in violation of federal pollution regulations with regard to dumping of a certain type of product. Twenty firms are under suspicion but all cannot be inspected. Suppose three of the firms are in violation. A .In how many ways can four firms be chosen from the twenty under suspicion for inspection? (5 points)

20 = 4845 4

B.After the inspection of four firms what is the probability that (1) At least one firm is found to be in violation?(5 points)

 3 17 0 4 P(X 1) = 1 P(X = 0) = 1 = .5088 20 4

(2) At most one firm is found to be in violation?(5 points)

3 17 0 4 P(X 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) = + 20 4

3 1

17 3 = .9122 20 4

4. In an experiment to study the relationship of hypertension and smoking habits the following data are collected for 180 individuals.
Nonsmo ker hypertension no hypertension 21 48 Moderate Heavy smo ker smo ker 36 26 30 19

A.What is the probability that a randomly selected individual (1) is a heavy smoker?(4 points)

P(heavy) =

49 = .272 180

(2) is a heavy smoker and has hypertension?(4 points)

P(heavy hypertension) =

30 = .167 180

B. If a person has hypertension what is the probability that he/she is a smoker?(4 points)

P(Smo ker | Hypertension) =

P(Smo ker Hypertension) 66 / 180 = = .7586 P(Hypertension) 87 / 180

5. A firm trains operators to do certain tasks on a production line. Operators who receive training meet their production quotas 90% of the time. Operators who do not receive training fail to meet their production quotas 35% of the time. Seventy percent of the operators employed by the firm receive training. A. What is the probability that a randomly selected operator meets his production quota and receives training?(6 points) P(Q|T)=.90 P(Q|T)=.35 P(T)=.7 Q=meets quota T=got training

P(Q T) = P(Q | T)P(T) = (.9)(.7) = .63

B. What is the probability that a randomly selected operator meets the quota?(6 points) P(Q)=P(Q|T)P(T)+P(Q|T)P(T)=(.9)(.7) + (.65)(.3) =.825

C.A person meets his production quota. What is the probability he/she received training?(6 points) P(Q | T)P(T) (.9)(.7) P(T | Q) = = = .7636 P(Q) .825 D. A person fails to meet his quota. What is the probability he/she did not receive training?(6 points)

P(T' | Q') =

P(Q' | T')P(T') (.35)(.30) = = .6 P(Q') .175

6. A system consists of three components that work or fail independently. The probability that each component works is 0.8. What is the probability that the system works (the reliability of the system) if A. The components are in series (for the system to work all components must work)(4 points) (.8)3 = .512

B. The components are in parallel(for the system to fail all components must fail)(4 points) 1 (.2)3 =.992 C. At least two out of three components must work for the system to work?(4 points) 3(.8)2(.2) +(.8)3=.896 D. The system has two subcomponents in series. Each subcomponent consists of two components in parallel? (4 points) For each subcomponent Rsub = 1-(.2)2 = .96 .96X.96 = .9216