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vi

Executive Summary
The objectives of this project are to 1) study and analyze trend of the rice production,
consumption and market in Thailand 2) study and analyze the impacts of the governmentus
intervention policies on the competitiveness of Thai rice 3) study trend of Thai rice in future, and
4) provide recommendations about Thai rice strategies by focusing on an increasing in knowledge
base and research on rice production, trade, market, and other necessary policies.
As regards to the method of the study on Thai rice demand, the domestic rice market is
studied in many dimensions, such as, selling from rice mills, retail markets and mains export
markets. The study of the rice demand and trend is separated into 2 parts: international and
domestic. For the international one, the issues about world rice consumptions and trends and the
world rice exports and trends are analyzed by using the economics model, dynamics model. For
the domestic one, it is the study of the aggregate domestic rice demand and export since 1960 to
present by using the secondary data from USDA, FAO and the Ministry of Commerce of
Thailand.
The study of Thai rice demands have the following issues;
The structures of productions, incomes and rate of return from rice farming: This
rate of return is compared with farming in other crops. This issue applied the
secondary data from the Office of Agricultural Economics of Thailand, FAO and the
rice farmer survey in 6 provinces.
The factors which have an impact on decisions of farming other crops together with
rice: This part of analyze bases on the data from the rice farmer survey and apply the
Logit Model as a methodology.
A supply response on rice compares to other crops and the study of the factors which
have impacts on improving rice farming productivity: the first one applied the model
related to supply response in farming areas. The latter one used rice production per
area model based on pooled cross section and time series data.

The labor supply in Thai agricultural sector: This is for the prediction of the
changing trend in Thai agricultural labor supply in next 10 years. This study bases on
the econometrics models for studying factors affected the trend of labor demand and
supply. The secondary data applied in this issue are including labor force and
vii

unemployment from the Labor Force Survey by The National Statistic Office of
Thailand, the value added of productions in each sectors from the Office of the
National Economic and Social Development Board of Thailand and the prices
indices from the Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices of Thailand since 1986 to
2011.
The study of the productivity and technology has the issues as follow;
Land and labor productivity from rice farming in the whole country: This part
analyzes productivity and factor determined type of farming (wet season and dry
season rice farming). The data used here is time series data (yearly).
The impact of changing in technology and rice seed on labor and land productivity:
This paper studies the impact of changing in technology and rice seed in last 5 years
compare to the present and analyzes the factors which have an impact on labor and
land productivity by using econometrics model, namely quartile regression, and data
from the survey.
The situation of improving rice seed: this part done by reviewing relevant
literatures/documents and secondary data.
The study of impact of price intervention by government shows empirical evidences
about pros and cons from the government rice pledging scheme by chose the rice pledging
scheme in production year 2011/2012.
As regards to the study of direction of Thai rice in future, this study separates the
possibility into 2 scenarios: in case of Thailand as the world largest rice exporter and in case of
government decides to implement the rice quality policy. These studies applies ~Foresightu
method by asked the options from the stakeholders in every relevant sector, approximately 80
people, about requirements and policies which might be happened in the future.
The field surveys for collecting primary data randomized farmers at 613 samples from 3
regions: Central region (Ayutthaya and Suphanburi), Northern region (Phitsanulok and
Nakornsawan) and North-Eastern region (Khonkaen and Ubon-Ratchathani). In addition, field
surveys also included the in-depth interviewing firms related to production of agricultural
machinery and technology.
viii

The recent results of study about the future of world rice market have the similar
conclusion. They expected that the quantity of rice will gradually increase during 2011-2015,
after that it will decline at 360 million tons per year. This is because of 4 reasons: declining of the
population growth in Asia, migration from rural to urban areas, higher income per capita of rice
consumption countries which reduces rice consumption per head (expect in Africa) and the
dietary transformation of Asia which tends to substitute rice consumption by other kinds of food.
Although the world rice production in the past increased 1.37 percent per year, it is
expected to grow about 1.12 percent per year in next 10 years. An increase in rice production
mainly comes from an increase in land productivity (0.97 percent per year) more than an
expansion in agricultural areas. This is because the rice importing countries tend to begin to use
the rice import substitution policies (i.e. producing rice by themselves), an increase in the
research and development on rice topic and an improving in biotechnology on rice seed, for
instance, Chinese mixed rice seed. That is the reasons why the rice price probably decreases about
1.3 percent per year in next 10 20 years.
In case of Thailand, the results suggest that although the total domestic rice consumption
might be able to maintain its moderate growth, the rice consumption per head slightly but
continually declined since 2002. The reason behinds the declining trend is an increase in income
per capita.
Although the domestic rice consumption has a declining trend, the consumption of the
jasmine rice still increased along with an increase in consumersu income. The jasmine rice consumer
normally cares about the consistency of riceus quality, the area of origin and brand. In contrast, white
rice consumer mainly pays attention on the rice color, packaging and area of origin, respectively.
From using the Hedomic Model analyzes factors affected rice price, the results suggested
that the percentage of broken rice is factor which has the most negative impact on rice price
follow by degree of fragrant and cleanness. Therefore, in term of policy, a research and
development policy should focus on fertilizer and/or nutrition and environment that affect the
fragrance of rice. In addition, there should be more research on the marketing topic, such as,
creating popularity of rice from particular areas.
The wet season rice production will tends to increase about 3 percent per year if rice
price remains the same. However, if government still implemented the rice pledging scheme, the
ix

production will be more increased. For dry season rice farming, its total production will increase
no matter its price will remain steady and/or decline. An increase in rice production mainly comes
from an increase in areas of dry season farming. This leads to a rapid increase in demand for
quantity of water for farming. As a consequence, there will be more conflict rising from water
using issue, if the government has no reform on water management system, especially demand
management and clear definition of water usingus rights.
As regards to exporting, an increasing trend of the rice production, especially production from
dry season farming while the demand from domestic consumption will slightly increase, will support
Thailand to have more marginal rice to export. As the same time, a decreasing trend of rice price in the
world market probably makes the exporting quantity of Thai rice grows approximately 4.2 percent per
year in next 10 years. An exporting of parboiled rice might increase (18.5 percent per year) more than
white rice (12.5 percent per year) because the elasticity of parboiled rice demand per an income of
importers higher than another one. For an exporting of the jasmine rice, it probably increases only about
2.5 percent.
A point to concern is an exporting of poor quality rice, especially white rice, will
confronts with a loss since a production and marketing cost in current situation are already high
and the competitive countries, who have lower cost, can sell rice in lower price than Thailand.
However, fortunately that an exporting of Thai jasmine and parboiled rice in world market still
had an increasing trend since they still be the products that foreigners will consume more when
their income increase.
However, Thai farming are confronting with many challenges. There are 1) the higher
cost of production. This problem arises from higher agricultural wage rate due to the shortage of
labor, higher price of fertilizer, higher price of pesticide, and higher transportation cost due to an
increase in fuel price. Furthermore, after government implemented the rice pledging scheme at
the price at 15,000 Baht per ton, the inputs cost raised remarkably, especially the farmland rental
rate in central region increased from 800-1,000 to more than 1,000 Baht per rai per year and the
prices of a fertilizers increased. 2) The productivity per rai of both wet and dry season rice
farming, which tends to constant, makes the growth rate of productivity per rai decelerated. For
example, the productivity per rai of dry season rice farming increased at 1.49 percent per year
during 1947 2012, however it increased only 0.47 percent during 1986 2012. 3) The
competitiveness of Thai rice decreased as the evidence showed that the domestic resource cost of
x

growing 1 ton of rice increased. 4) Thai rice farmers confronted with severe spread of an aphis.
This is because the land is repeatedly used to grow rice for many seasons since farmers wanted to
enjoy the high price of rice increased from the government rice pledging scheme. 5) The last
challenge is a labor shortage since a severe rate of migration of young labor force in agricultural,
both men and women during age 15 34, to other sectors.
The agricultural household survey in 6 provinces, 613 households, found the clear
evidences which show that farmers solved the labor shortage by using labor, time and cost saving
technology/method in every production processes. For example, they decided to purchase new
rice seeds instead of choosing rice seeds method which requires labor intensive. They also
switched to use biochemical, tracker for growing and harvesting rice, and hide a truck to carry
rice to a rice mill. It is observed that a using of machinery happens together with the expansion of
farm size in central region. In addition, farmers in some provinces in central region form a group
to find the way(s) to reduce cost of production.
This study also found that the research is a factor which has an influence on land and
labor productivity in rice production. Furthermore, research and development on rice seeds are
also success in many dimensions, for instance, improving rice seed to be more insect resistant and
gain more land productivity. Then, rate of return from improving rice seed is higher than 30
percent. However, the research program on rice faces many important problems, for instance, 1)
the rice research intensity has negative trend. The government budget for rice research has to
depend on annual budget. This makes research budget fluctuated by an economic cycle. When
economy faces bad year, this kind of budget is the first thing to be cut. This is because research is
a long term investment, therefore it hardly gain political interest from politician who normally
focus on gaining short-term vote. 2) The budget allocation on research is still an annual program.
This not supports long-term agricultural research which requires the budget allocation for 3 -5
years research program. 3) The agricultural research budget is always used as a supporting budget
under nresearch and developmento category. 4) Currently, the rice department of Thailand and
universities face young proficient researcher scarcity. While senior researchers continually
retired, there is no young researcher to substitute. 6) The budget allocation still struggle with
problem of evaluation on rate of return on investment because a lack of the effective evaluation
system since research fund is granted.

xi

Therefore, the production sector, trade sector and maintaining the number one the world
largest rice exporting position are confronting with challenges, which create extreme pressures on
a using of water resource and production factors. Under these challenges and circumstances that
Thai rice and farmers might have less competitiveness in the future, only attempting to reduce
cost in order to maintain market share is probably not sustainable since competitors have less cost
and can rapidly improve production and transportation efficiency. The question is how farmers
will have income per head close to the non-agricultural occupations.
The solution is a setting of Thai rice strategy by focusing on producing and selling
quality rice in order to improve income level of Thai rice farmer. There are 3 alternative ways for
Thai farmers. 1) Reducing cost of production and/or increasing land productivity 2) Increasing
labor productivity: this study found that if famers increase using of agricultural machinery and
increase farm size, labor productivity will go up 3) Producing high quality rice or a rice which has
higher price, for instance, producing better quality of jasmine rice, exporting parboiled rice which
can sell at higher price than white rice and producing products and/or medical products made
from rice (i.e. rice medicine/nutrition products, anti-cancer products made from rice).
This study suggests that Thai farmers should adapt themselves in 2 previous options
depend of the market and situational change. However, it probably might not enough for creating
better living standard and competitiveness in future. Then, Thai government should play an
important role by suggesting how farmers should adapt and develop rice economy. The
suggested policies are including: 1) reducing number of farmersu policy by move excess
agricultural labor to other sectors. This can improve living income of farmers to be closer to
income of people worked in non-agricultural sectors under the circumstance that government
create non-agricultural jobs in rural area and improve education/knowledge for non-agricultural
careers to support farmers, who work in unfertile land, to move to non-agricultural careers. 2)
Larger farm size policy 3) Increasing quality of rice policy, and 4) Reforming a research for
supporting rice strategy policy.

xii


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xvi

Executive Summary
The objectives of this project are to study and analyze the trend of rice production, rice
consumption and rice export, to study and analyze the effects of the Governmentus market
intervention policy on the competitiveness of Thai rice, and to forecast the future of Thai rice.
The project will also suggest strategic policy on Thai rice, focusing on building fundamental
knowledge and conducting research in production, trade and marketing. The scope of research
and the methodology include the estimation of demand for Thai rice in the global market and in
Thailand, broken down by types of rice (which are proxies of quality of rice). The econometric
method will be used to estimate the supply response of Thai rice, the demand for water and the
demand and supply of agricultural labor by using secondary information from time series
analysis. The secondary information will be used to analyze the capital and the profit in growing
rice comparing to other alternative crops. It will also be used to analyze factors that affect the
productivity per rai and labor productivity. In addition, the project will conduct a survey on
farmers in the central, lower-northern and north-eastern parts of Thailand
(6 provinces in
total). The survey results will be used to analyze the farmersu behavior in growing rice. Every step
of the processes, including selecting seeds, preparing soil, shipping the products to the market
will be analyzed. The project will study the production costs, analyze the probability that farmers
will switch to grow other crops and study farmersu behavior in utilizing technology in the
production. It will also examine the roles of research and development and technology and project
the future of Thai rice by using future foresight, in consultation with experts.
It has been projected in research papers in other countries that global rice consumption
will increase slowly in the next 10 years (2011-2022). However, after this period, it will reduce,
mainly because of the deceleration of population growth in Asia, the rural-urban migration, the
increase of per capita income of Asian countries that consume rice and the reduction of rice
consumption per head due to the fact that Asian people start to consume other products instead of
rice. It is also projected that global productivity will increase in the next 10 years because the
production per rai increases due to new technology from investment in research on rice and
biotechnology for improving rice seeds and the slight increase of rice farms. However, rice trade
will be reduced because rice consumption tends to be reduced and major importing countries start
to grow rice for domestic consumption. Because of this, rice price in the global market is
expected to be reduced in the next 10-20 years.
xvii

Even though Thailand increases rice export, the future of rice export does not seem to
prosper. This is because the consumption volume increases slower than the productivity.
Some research findings indicate that rice production in Thailand tends to increase 3% per
year (stabilized price) because the expansion of off-season rice fields. The estimation of Thai rice
export equation indicates that in the next 10 years, rice export will increase 4.2 % per year.
Parboiled rice export will increase more than normal rice export. However, rice export will
encounter many issues: (1) normal rice export will suffer a loss because now the production cost
and marketing cost are starting to jump more than export price. (2) the competitor countries have
low production cost. They will have the advantage in exporting rice at a lower price. Moreover,
the policy reform in Myanmar and Cambodia will increase their rice export with lower price
comparing to Thailand. (3) The rice pledging scheme increases the price of Thai rice. Fortunately,
Thailand always produce and export good quality rice (only if the rice pledging scheme is
changed) because domestic and international consumers consume more jasmine rice when they
have more income. In addition, Thailand tends to export more parboiled rice which is more
expensive than normal rice because of the increasing demands from the Middle East and some
African countries.
In any case, Thai farmers are experiencing some difficulties in rice production (a) higher
production cost due to labour shortage which leads to higher agricultural wages and due to the
higher cost of fertilizers, pesticides and shipment because of higher fuel price. Moreover, after the
Government used the rice pledging scheme which guarantees the price of rice at 15,000 Baht per
tonne, the production cost rapidly increased. The farm rental fee in the central region increased
from 800-1,000 Baht per rai per year to 1,000 Baht per rai per growing season and the fertilizer
price also increased. (b) The rice productivity per rai both in off-season and in-season rice fields
tends to stabilized. (c) The competitiveness of Thai rice is reduced as the natural resources used
for the production of 1 tonne of rice increase. (d) Farmers are experiencing more severe brown
planthopper outbreaks because they continuously grow rice without any breaks to benefit from
the rice pledging scheme. (e) The water shortage will be more severe because the farmers are
expanding their rice fields into the areas which are not suitable for rice growing, therefore water
demand will be rapidly increased. This will lead to more intense water conflicts. (f) The major
labour shortage issue because of the fact that young farmers (15-34 years old) are migrating out of
the agricultural sector.
xviii

The household survey on farmers in 6 provinces (613 households) conducted by the Thailand
Development Research Institute (TDRI) in 2012 found that the farmers solved the issue of labour shortage
by utilizing technology that was less labour-intensive, less time-consuming and reduced the production cost
in every step of the production from buying new seeds instead of keeping the seed stock that was labourintensive. The farmers also started to use biochemical, seedling trucks and harvesting trucks and started to
rent trucks to ship rice to the millhouse. Farmers in some provinces in the central region also gathered
together to find a solution to reduce the production cost.
This study found that rice research is the main factor that helps increase the overall
productivity in the agricultural sector which will improve farmersu livelihood in the long run.
Moreover, the research for jasmine rice seed development has been successful. The seeds are
stronger and create more productivity per rai. The income from jasmine rice export has increased
more than one third of the exporting value. Income rate from seed development, therefore, has
increased more than 30%.
However, research on rice is experiencing several critical problems i.e. (a) the budget for
research comparing to rice research intensity tends to reduce. The budget for research usually
depends on the fiscal year budget, therefore the budget for research fluctuates based on the
economic cycle. In the year that the Government experiences economic crisis, the budget for
research will be cut as the research is a long-term investment which does not help gain political
votes. (b) the management of budget for research is an annual project which is an obstacle for
agricultural research and development which needs the management on the program research
basis (3-5 years). (c) budget for agricultural research has been used as supporting budget,
claiming that it is for nresearch and developmento. (d) nowadays, the Rice Department and
universities are experiences shortage of qualified researchers. When the older researchers are
retired, there are no substitutes. (f) the management of budget for research does not have an
evaluation system that enables the understanding of the rate of return as the system has never
been established since the beginning of the project.
Because of these, the production sector, the trade sector and the status of the leading rice
exporters of Thailand are being challenged. This has put extreme pressure on the use of water
resources and the factors of production. Under this pressure, Thai farmers have less
competitiveness. It is not enough to only reduce the production cost to gain the export market
share as it is not sustainable. The competitors have less production cost and they can rapidly
xix

improve the production and shipment. The main question is what can we do to help the farmers
receive similar income as others outside of the agricultural sector.
A solution is to redesign Thai rice strategy and to focus on producing and trading good
quality rice in order to raise Thai farmersu income. The farmers have 3 alternatives in the future:
(1) reducing the production cost and/or increasing the productivity per rai (2) increasing
productivity per farmer. This project found that if farmers used agricultural engines and expand
their (3) growing good quality rice or rice that has higher price such as high-quality jasmine rice,
exporting parboiled rice that has higher price and exporting rice products or medical products
made our of rice.
This research found that Thai farmers have been adapting themselves for the first 2
alternatives, however only these ways of adapting might not be enough to improve their
livelihoods and to maintain their competitiveness. The government should play an important role
in identifying methods to adapt themselves to improve rice economy by creating the following
policies (1) reducing the number of farmers by migrating the surplus labour out of the agricultural
sector so that the income per head of farmers is equivalent to others outside of the agricultural
sector. However, the Government must have the policy to create jobs outside of the agricultural
sector in the suburban areas, they should improve education and knowledge so that farmers could
work in other sectors and they should facilitate farmers that grow off-season rice to grow other
crops. (2) expanding rice fields by changing the laws that limit land rent (3) improving the quality
of rice (4) reforming the research system and increasing investments in rice research in order to
support the strategy that develops Thai rice with high quality and increases labor productivity in
rice production.

xx


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Volume 1A, Edited by B. Gardner and G. Rausser. The Netherlands: Elsevier Science B.V.
3

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Upaddy
Lpaddy
Central
LnFer
LnOrg
LnHerb
LnPest
Lnlabor
Seed
Field
Sown
Constant 2 2
Pseudo R /R
F-statistics
Number of observations

= 0.10
0.068
0.004
0.187*
-0.058
-0.053
-0.074
-0.023

= 0.25
0.003
-0.065**
0.165
0.067
0.031
-0.011
-0.003

**
0.026***
0.025
0.004
0.091
0.320***
0.068
0.236
5.517***
0.154

0.012
0.024***
0.002
0.047
0.356***
0.261
0.110
5.810***
0.153

Quantile Regression
= 0.50
= 0.75
-0.002
0.008
-0.045
-0.037
0.023
0.013
-0.027
-0.013
-0.014
-0.008
0.054
0.007
0.006
-0.002
0.006
0.029***
-0.002
0.08
0.217***
0.101
0.055
6.191***
0.109


!,: ***,**,* 

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0.016
0.002
0.016
0.122***
0.039
0.014
6.474***
0.100
456

= 0.90
-0.000
-0.051
0.008
-0.057
-0.053
0.058
-0.002

OLS
0.016
-0.024**
0.081
-0.031
-0.054
-0.008
-0.004

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0.011*
0.000
0.005
0.061*
0.108
0.003
6.653***
0.081

0.006
0.021***
0.003
0.030
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0.169
0.072
6.157***
0.186
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 0D

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LnOrg
LnHerb
LnPest
Har1
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Seed
Field
Sown
Constant
Pseudo R2/R2
F-statistics
Number of observations

= 0.10
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0.061
0.062
0.355
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-0.070
0.020
0.066*
0.003
0.284
0.277
-0.119
0.096
0.310*
3.536***
0.197

= 0.25
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0.058
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0.105
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0.016
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0.326
0.315
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0.509
0.209
4.039***
0.121

Quantile Regression
= 0.50
= 0.75
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0.488***
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0.129
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0.099
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0.075
0.112
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0.189
0.137
0.088
0.109
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0.094
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0.167
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0.399
0.114
5.632***
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456

OLS
0.466***
-0.031
0.095
0.343***
0.156
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-0.013
0.008
0.039***
-0.006
0.129
0.131
0.053
0.139
0.1094
4.607***
0.231
8.79***

 0D

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LnOrg
LnHerb
LnPest
Lnlabor
Seed
Field
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Pseudo R /R
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Number of observations

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0.019
0.047
0.139
0.072
0.027
0.024
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0.040
0.012
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0.155
0.076
0.074
5.683***
0.196

= 0.25
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0.010
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0.007
0.143***
0.055
0.032
6.030***
0.154

Quantile Regression
= 0.50
= 0.75
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0.038
0.224
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6.317
6.489
0.105
0.077


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0.016
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0.028
6.633***
0.112

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0.036
0.081*
0.030
0.044
0.003
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0.032
0.004
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0.069**
0.174
0.049
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0.203
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Country
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Pakistan
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Thailand
Bangladesh
Malaysia
Iran
Nepal
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China
Myanmar
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b
b
b
86

II
7
1
b
b
3
b
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2
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b
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2
b
b
b
b
15

V
62
60
1
b
17
1
17
6
b
b
b
4
1
1
b
b
b
1
171

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*
32
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1
3
2
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6
7
b
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b
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b
b
b
b
b
60

Total
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65
48
34
33
21
18
16
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)
2504
2505
2506
2507
2508
2509
2510
2511
2512
2513
2514
2515
2516
2517
2518
2519
2520
2521
2522
2523
2524
2525
2526
2527
2528
2529
2530
2531
2532
2533
2534
2535
2536
2537

Brunei
78.6
76.7
79.0
70.7
80.0
73.1
83.1
80.7
81.1
79.1
76.2
76.4
74.1
75.1
74.0
70.4
67.6
65.7
64.7
62.8
65.1
64.0
61.8
60.4
60.3
65.6
64.2
65.5
67.6
69.2
67.2
68.3
67.1
67.9

China
41.8
47.7
55.3
61.6
64.3
67.3
65.2
63.8
61.8
69.8
70.6
70.1
71.2
71.2
71.5
71.2
72.3
75.6
76.8
75.8
75.3
84.1
86.4
86.0
85.7
84.2
82.7
80.9
80.0
82.7
74.4
74.6
75.9
76.1

Indonesia
81.4
78.2
78.7
77.5
79.2
83.2
84.3
88.0
97.6
100.2
105.9
109.1
106.9
107.3
112.7
113.0
112.4
113.3
120.0
120.6
122.5
129.6
126.5
128.4
135.8
130.1
138.3
141.1
143.8
127.2
126.0
127.9
128.5
125.7

Malaysia
120.6
128.0
128.4
122.8
117.7
117.6
118.5
115.5
119.7
120.7
125.8
121.2
124.8
126.6
121.3
117.6
106.5
106.7
111.3
108.6
109.3
104.5
96.9
93.3
83.0
82.5
80.0
77.9
79.2
83.1
80.7
86.8
86.0
87.5

Philippines
91.7
86.9
87.5
90.7
93.2
87.9
87.0
83.5
83.7
85.1
88.5
91.8
92.0
94.8
97.3
96.4
93.7
88.9
90.9
97.5
97.6
98.6
86.2
97.9
98.2
97.2
94.0
93.4
96.7
94.2
85.1
88.4
89.3
89.5

Saudi Arabia
24.0
24.1
24.1
24.1
24.1
24.0
23.9
24.0
23.7
23.4
23.1
22.6
22.3
22.6
25.4
27.9
25.3
27.3
33.3
33.4
35.9
38.7
36.3
33.4
30.9
28.1
24.5
26.1
18.4
17.8
17.4
27.5
26.7
26.5

United Arab
Emirates
78.6
77.7
82.0
80.4
84.4
109.9
64.3
77.0
64.6
51.9
46.3
61.2
27.2
65.4
52.6
41.3
33.7
30.1
55.9
34.2
42.5
46.9
21.9
14.2
11.7
24.5
28.0
40.2
30.6
41.1
45.0
43.4
44.0
43.0

Iran
16.7
23.7
22.7
23.4
26.3
27.8
22.8
23.3
22.7
23.2
24.2
27.8
27.0
31.9
36.5
37.3
43.1
33.7
29.1
29.9
36.6
33.0
29.5
32.1
32.7
30.7
35.4
19.6
34.8
30.9
34.7
38.2
39.7
29.1

Benin
1.2
2.0
1.8
2.2
2.8
2.7
2.7
1.7
3.0
2.2
3.2
4.7
4.3
2.1
3.1
4.9
6.1
1.9
3.1
5.4
6.2
9.4
11.0
12.5
8.2
9.6
9.4
10.2
13.0
16.7
19.8
14.7
19.3
18.4

Cte d'Ivoire
28.3
31.0
30.3
34.9
41.9
40.0
44.5
44.4
45.0
43.0
45.6
47.7
48.3
42.1
38.1
39.4
46.8
46.9
57.3
59.4
61.4
61.0
63.4
58.0
55.9
55.8
54.9
56.4
55.0
53.8
53.6
53.0
54.9
53.4

S. africa
3.0
2.5
3.2
3.1
3.4
3.7
3.5
3.7
3.7
3.3
3.9
3.6
4.0
2.8
3.5
3.4
4.1
3.8
4.9
4.4
5.1
5.4
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.7
7.7
6.7
8.0
7.8
9.1
8.8
9.2
10.0

Nigeria
1.6
3.2
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.2
4.2
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.9
4.4
4.6
4.9
3.7
3.4
9.3
12.0
13.5
14.3
17.7
15.9
15.7
13.4
13.9
12.9
15.9
15.1
20.2
20.3
21.8
22.1
20.4
16.3

Aus
3.1
2.3
3.1
3.1
3.1
2.4
2.6
2.9
1.9
3.3
4.1
2.2
4.2
3.4
3.1
3.5
4.7
3.6
4.0
7.6
7.1
5.5
6.2
4.7
4.5
4.7
6.8
6.8
7.2
7.9
5.7
5.6
6.2
6.5

Canada
1.7
1.7
2.0
1.9
2.9
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.3
3.2
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.3
3.4
3.8
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.9
5.2
5.4
5.8
5.6

US
2.5
3.0
2.7
2.9
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.4
2.7
3.1
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.2
2.9
3.2
2.4
3.9
3.9
4.5
5.0
4.2
3.6
3.8
4.8
5.9
5.9
6.2
6.8
7.2
7.4
7.0
7.8

2538
2539
2540
2541
2542
2543
2544
2545
2546
2547
2548
2549
2550
2551
2552
2553f
2554f
2555f
2556f
2557f
2558f
2559f
2560f
2561f
2562f
2563f
2564f
2565f

Brunei
69.1
71.9
76.8
74.8
73.3
76.3
73.0
74.4
75.7
76.1
77.7
80.1
79.0
78.1
76.8
73.5
73.7
73.9
74.0
74.1
74.3
74.4
74.5
74.6
74.6
74.6
74.7
74.7

China
78.0
78.3
78.6
78.9
78.7
78.6
78.1
77.5
76.6
76.3
76.4
76.3
75.9
76.0
76.3
75.0
74.8
74.6
74.4
74.2
74.0
73.8
73.6
73.4
73.2
73.0
72.8
72.6

Indonesia
127.6
130.8
130.1
131.5
133.5
126.8
125.1
125.1
124.5
124.0
123.6
124.9
126.0
126.7
127.4
127.8
127.7
127.6
127.5
127.4
127.2
127.1
127.0
126.9
126.8
126.8
126.7
126.6

Malaysia
86.8
87.1
87.4
87.6
86.8
84.2
80.0
74.2
74.7
71.2
75.8
74.4
75.1
73.4
74.0
70.9
70.0
69.2
68.5
67.7
67.0
66.4
65.7
65.1
64.5
63.9
63.3
62.7

Philippines
93.2
99.5
97.9
92.7
100.5
104.2
104.6
108.7
107.6
116.7
120.9
121.2
128.9
131.2
123.3
125.9
128.2
130.5
132.8
135.1
137.5
140.0
142.4
144.9
147.4
149.9
152.5
155.1

Saudi Arabia
26.6
30.9
31.6
35.9
38.2
39.6
32.8
31.1
30.5
33.1
33.2
35.4
33.8
36.5
35.0
39.5
40.5
41.5
42.5
43.6
44.7
45.8
47.0
48.3
49.6
50.9
52.3
53.8

United Arab
Emirates
44.3
45.3
49.7
43.7
37.1
41.2
46.4
39.9
39.3
45.4
45.8
47.6
41.4
42.4
47.2
41.2
41.6
42.0
42.5
43.0
43.5
44.1
44.8
45.5
46.2
46.9
47.7
48.5

/0123: 567289:;<23=>3;?;<@ABCD7EFG:H 2504-2552 I3> FAO 567289LM3>;=N:H 2553-2565 @OMB=P-86G<IFM

-3-2

Iran
44.8
36.8
30.0
31.9
31.0
30.3
25.5
35.7
36.1
30.5
30.8
30.4
28.2
28.0
23.0
26.6
26.4
26.3
26.1
25.9
25.8
25.6
25.4
25.2
25.0
24.8
24.6
24.5

Benin
22.0
22.2
15.5
14.4
10.9
10.1
15.2
18.7
21.4
26.1
32.2
36.8
33.5
32.2
34.4
33.1
34.9
36.6
38.3
40.0
41.6
43.2
44.7
46.1
47.6
48.9
50.2
51.4

Cte d'Ivoire
54.8
57.7
49.5
46.8
47.1
49.3
52.0
50.7
53.9
61.1
58.9
59.9
66.0
64.5
67.3
59.1
59.5
59.9
60.2
60.6
61.0
61.4
61.8
62.2
62.5
62.9
63.3
63.7

S. africa
10.9
11.3
11.0
12.0
13.3
12.3
12.3
14.3
16.0
15.7
15.8
16.3
19.6
12.7
14.8
16.8
17.3
17.8
18.3
18.8
19.4
19.9
20.4
21.0
21.6
22.2
22.8
23.4

Nigeria
18.2
19.1
22.5
21.1
22.4
21.8
24.6
22.0
22.4
21.5
20.3
21.1
22.3
19.8
20.9
29.7
30.5
31.2
32.0
32.8
33.7
34.6
35.4
36.4
37.3
38.3
39.3
40.3

Aus
7.0
7.9
7.9
7.6
8.1
8.8
9.5
9.9
9.9
10.1
10.0
9.9
10.0
11.5
11.5
12.2
12.6
13.0
13.4
13.8
14.2
14.6
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.6

Canada
6.3
6.6
7.7
7.3
7.5
7.4
7.0
6.4
6.0
8.4
8.4
9.0
9.2
9.8
9.7
9.6
10.0
10.3
10.7
11.1
11.5
12.0
12.4
12.9
13.4
14.0
14.5
15.1

US
8.4
8.0
8.4
8.5
9.1
8.8
8.8
9.0
7.9
8.2
8.4
8.5
8.4
8.4
8.3
9.4
9.7
10.0
10.3
10.6
10.9
11.3
11.6
12.0
12.3
12.7
13.1
13.5



  3.2 
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2.4
2.5
6.8
24.4

2544
7.2
3.8
6.7
1.6
3.2
5.3
27.8

2545
7.6
4.3
4.4
2.0
3.8
5.5
27.5

2546
10.1
5.2
3.2
2.0
3.1
3.7
27.3

2547
7.3
4.7
4.7
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3.9
5.4
29.0

2548
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4.5
4.5
3.6
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9.6
4.6
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4-13



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%9
'(!$

Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) "?))
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) "?)(t-1))
Log (- 2)5 -/,21*) "?)(t-1))

Supply
0.388**
(0.153)
0.026
(0.153)
0.378**
(0.147)

Log (2 "82*.)1"?))
Log (2 "82*.)1"?)(t-1))
Log (- )

 !"
)!3"!3)+,"?)-3)
)
Log (- )

 !"
)!3"!3)+,"?)-3)
(t-1))
Log (1-)) )
Log (1-)) (t-1))
Time trend
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) 1"?))
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) 1"?)(t-1))
Log (1-)."
)!3"!3)+,
.3)>7?)+-3
)II-32-M!2>7?)
Log (1-)."
)!3"!3)+,
.3)>7?)+-3
)II-32-M!2>7?(t-1))

Observations
R-squared

-0.011
(0.007)
-0.013
(0.194)
-0.499***
(0.175)
-0.288
(0.252)
-0.079
(0.238)
14.318***
(3.130)
24
0.951

Demand
-0.867
(0.707)
0.609
(0.382)
0.502**
(0.244)
0.033
(0.450)
-0.348
(0.493)
0.090
(0.206)
0.165
(0.211)
-0.184
(0.118)
0.054
(0.059)
-0.009
(0.025)

19.081
(19.888)
24
0.894

,2!",: 2"01 2)@ (standard errors) * "C3  ***, **, *+ * * -2
)+Mc2 -!5-I
6)+-3 0.01, 0.05 *+ 0.10 25-3

4-14



 4.2 $?4@2 21A
%9

$
!2< 15-24  (!2)

Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -!) "?))
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -!) "?)(t-1))

Supply
0.372**
(0.190)
0.564***
(0.168)

Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -! "?))

Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -! "?)(t-1))
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*)  1!"?))
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*)  1!"?)(t-1))
Log (- 2)5 -/,21*) -!)  "?)(t-1))

0.603***
(0.123)

Log (2 "82*.)1"?))
Log (2 "82*.)1"?)(t-1))
Log (1-)) )
Log (1-)) (t-1))
(Time trend)

-0.032***
(0.011)

(Time trend)^2
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -!) 1"?))
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -!) 1"?)(t-1))

Observations
R-squared

0.188
(0.389)
-1.227***
(0.402)
9.566***
(2.686)
24
0.989

Demand
-0.808
(0.528)
0.375
(0.282)
1.02
(0.630)
-0.382
(0.618)
0.483
(0.404)
0.018
(0.274)
0.843**
(0.327)
1.241*
(0.721)
-0.345
(0.664)
0.087
(0.093)
0.002
(0.073)
-0.172*
(0.104)
0.002*
(0.001)

-18.012
(20.565)
24
0.988

,2!",: 2"01 2)@ (standard errors) * "C3  ***, **, *+ * *-2
)+Mc2 -!5-I
6)+-3 0.01, 0.05 *+ 0.10 25-3

4-15



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%9

$
!2< 25-54  (!)

Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -!) "?))

Supply

Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -!) "?)(t-1))

Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -! "?))
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -! "?)(t-1))

0.334***
(0.115)
0.044
(0.128)

Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*)  1!"?))

Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*)  1!"?)(t-1))
Log (- 2)5 -/,21*) -!  "?)(t-1))

0.401***
(0.156)

Log (2 "82*.)1"?))
Log (2 "82*.)1"?)(t-1))
Log (- )

 !"
)!3"!3)+,"?)-3)
)
Log (- )

 !"
)!3"!3)+,"?)-3)
(t-1))
Log (1-)) )
Log (1-)) (t-1))
Time trend
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -! 1"?))
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -! 1"?)(t-1))

Observations
R-squared

-0.015***
(0.004)
0.022
(0.174)
-0.267*
(0.155)
12.557***
(2.972)
24
0.886

Demand
0.191
(0.153)
0.364**
(0.169)
-0.330
(0.297)
-0.087
(0.310)
0.108
(0.226)
0.022
(0.139)
0.452
(0.390)
0.107
(0.334)
-0.122
(0.298)
-0.062
(0.194)
-0.024
(0.194)
-0.106*
(0.056)
0.040
(0.040)
-0.014
(0.014)

11.036
(14.169)
24
0.901

,2!",: 2"01 2)@ (standard errors) * "C3  ***, **, *+ * *-2
)+Mc2 -!5-I
6)+-3 0.01, 0.05 *+ 0.10 25-3

4-16



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%9

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!2< 55-65  (!1!2)

Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -!) "?))

Supply

Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -!) "?)(t-1))

Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -! "?))
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -! "?)(t-1))
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*)  1!"?))
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*)  1!"?)(t-1))
Log (- 2)5 -/,21*)  1! "?)(t-1))

0.183*
(0.107)
-0.007
(0.106)
0.593***
(0.145)

Log (2 "82*.)1"?))
Log (2 "82*.)1"?)(t-1))
Log (- )

 !"
)!3"!3)+,"?)-3)
)
Log (- )

 !"
)!3"!3)+,"?)-3)
(t-1))
Log (1-)) )
Log (1-)) (t-1))
(Time trend)

0.004
(0.004)

(Time trend)^2
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -! 1"?))
Log (1-).*.) !"#!1*) -! 1"?)(t-1))

Observations
R-squared

-0.058
(0.088)
-0.091
(0.083)
7.451***
(2.477)
24
0.800

Demand
-0.001
(0.106)
0.332***
(0.114)
-0.024
(0.138)
0.275
(0.177)
0.183
(0.165)
-0.268***
(0.093)
0.402*
(0.208)
0.498
(0.315)
-0.414*
(0.212)
0.175
(0.120)
-0.172
(0.165)
-0.027
(0.035)
0.015
(0.028)
-0.094***
(0.029)
0.001***
(0.000)

9.380
(10.575)
24
0.955

,2!",: 2"01 2)@ (standard errors) * "C3  ***, **, *+ * *-2
)+Mc2 -!5-I
6)+-3 0.01, 0.05 *+ 0.10 25-3

4-17