North Koreans Launched A Three-Stage Rocket

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From: defined ® 15/07/2003 1:16:01 PM

Subject: can they or cant they post id: 1156
Our Foreign Minister has assured us that the North Koreans cannot reach Australia with
nuclear missiles.
In 1998, the North Koreans launched a three-stage rocket, a Taepo Dong 1, intended to put a
small satellite into orbit. The rocket passed over Japan, with the first stage falling into the
Pacific beyond Japan. The second stage fell into the Pacific beyond Hawaii. The third
(according to the Koreans) propelled the small satellite into orbit, where it broadcast patriotic
songs. The Americans described the launch as a ICBM test intended to alarm the Japanese.
They first described it as a single stage missile capable of reaching Japan. Then they
reluctantly admitted that there was a second stage, and that the whole could reach Alaska.
They denied that there was a third stage, but then said that it had exploded and thereby failed
to insert the satellite into orbit.
Despite subsequent US disinformation (including the suppression of photos of the launch
facility, and the closure of Japanese sites which mentioned the satellite launch) intended to
prevent the US public from realising that hassling N. Korea could produce some very serious
blowback, the game was given away by George Tenet in his testimony to the Senate Arms
Committee ( http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/east/02/12/us.nkorea/ )
Summary: The director of the CIA knows it, the readers of CNN know it, our intellence
agencies know it, i know it, you know it, but Alexander has not been told...
From: Cricket ® 15/07/2003 2:08:40 PM

Subject: re: can they or cant they post id: 1196
Actually, Downer was right. North Korea can't reach us with NUCLEAR missiles. Its longest
range missile is thought to be able to reach northern Australia, but with a very limited warhead
capacity. In other words, the missile might reach Darwin but certainly not with an ultra-heavy
nuclear warhead. At most, it could deliver a small conventional warhead (which is a lot
lighter).
From: defined ® 15/07/2003 2:52:21 PM

The Taepo Dong 1 was a three stage rocket, the second stage of which landed not far short
of the US. That means the first two stages carried the weight of the third stage plus the
satellite.
This means we had a demonstration in 1998 that the Nth Koreans could deliver a nuclear
bomb-sized payload a distance greater than Pyongyang to Darwin.
Since then, there has been 5 years of development on the newer, larger Taepo Dong 2.
From: leone ® 15/07/2003 8:25:43 PM

How can we know what North Korea does or does not have and whether or not they have
http://www2b.abc.net.au/news/forum/newsonline6/archives/archive9/newposts/9/topic98... 11/18/2005
nukes that can reach Australia? After all, it seems our intelligence agencies cannot be trusted
to keep the prime minister informed.what information do we rely on? Is any of it just the
slightest bit accurate. As for Downer - it is probably safer to beleive the opposite of anything
he says.
From: Cricket ® 16/07/2003 3:40:29 PM

A transmission satellite is pretty light. Sputnik weighed only a kilogram or so.
From: gfairlie ® 16/07/2003 7:11:28 PM

i think your reference point may be way off...
Sputnik-1 Technical Specifications
Construction: Aluminum alloy

Shape: spherical
Weight: 83.6 Kg (184 Lbs)
Diameter: 58 cm (23 in.)
Orbit time: 96.16 min
Initial orbit perigee: 142 mi
Apogee: 588 mi
Inclination: 64.3 degrees
Speed at perigee: 18,000 mph
Speed at apogee: 16,200 mph
184 lbs is a lot different from 2.2lbs
From: defined ® 17/07/2003 9:32:19 AM

COMMISSION TO ASSESS THE BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT TO THE UNITED
STATES ...this 1998 report deals with the specific question of the range and future
development of North Korean missiles.
( http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/missile/rumsfeld/toc.htm )
The conclusion was that there was a high probability that the North Koreans could lob a nuke
on middle America. They also pointed to weaknesses in US intelligence and that they could
be surprised by the speed of Nth Korean missile development.
That being the case, it is wicked of Downer and the participants of the Brisbane conference
on interdiction to claim that the Nth Koreans "cannot" attack Australia.
From: MickyD 17/07/2003 10:08:34 AM

defined
So what now?
Sit round and wait til one lands?
Or do we do the rumpty, pinko,weenie left wing socialist peacenik thing and wrap ourselves in
copious quantities of Stalins "Last walk to the Woodheap" and hope for the best.
From: pistoph ® 17/07/2003 10:25:55 AM

The simple fact is that nobody outside the central pwoer club in North Korea can say with any
certainty that North Korea has an ICBM capability. All that can be said is that, on the available
evidence, this is unlikely.
Downer, in claiming that Korea does not have this capacity, and then claiming that we are
justified in ignoring international law to attack North Korean interests on the high seas iand in
the air, is simply being mischievous. He appears to be saying that it is safe to attack North
Korean interests because they don't have the capacity to strike back, and that we NEED to
attack their interests because they pose a clear and present danger.
I think that this type of thing is known as "doublespeak".
From: defined ® 17/07/2003 11:30:58 AM

What to do? You recognise that applying pressure, sanctions and insults to the North Koreans
could result in very serious consequences for the citizens of Australia and the US.
You recognise that North or South, Koreans are Koreans, and that they wish to be re-unified.
You stop projecting your tired and irrelevent cold-war worldview onto a society that you do not
understand or respect.
And...you face the fact that a re-unified Korea will probably mean that a US military presence
on the North Asian mainland is no longer required or desired.
From: Cricket ® 17/07/2003 11:38:47 AM

I accept the correction on Sputnik except that I don't think that refers to the actual orbiting
transmitter.
Either way, 85kg is STILL a lot lighter than a first-stage nuclear weapon, which even without
over-engineering (the first nukes for every country are always over-engineered) weigh at least
a tonne (the Hiroshima device weighed in at more than 10,000 pounds, didn't it?).
From: gfairlie ® 17/07/2003 1:09:33 PM

cricket, nope, that is the weight of the orbiting trannie. (all up dry weight)
recent article Development of New Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons.. cohen and douglass..
"... consider the small sizes into which very respectable yields can be packaged. Warheads
whose weight lies in the 30 to 150 pound range can “have yields as low as 50 tons (high
explosive equivalent) to tens of kilotons, several times the size of the first nuclear weapons
that were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The most available warheads and easiest to
manage would be in the 100 ton to 1 or 2 kiloton range. Insofar as size is concerned, an
implosion nuclear warhead could be as small as a soccer ball and weigh less than 50 pounds.
The "Davy Crockett" warhead was developed in the early 1950s as the warhead for an Army
bazooka. It had yields in the tens to hundreds of tons and weighed only 40 pounds. A good
warhead design team such as the Soviets undoubtedly have at their Arzamov-16 laboratory
could probably pack ten kilotons or more into an even smaller package.” [ii] This also applies
to the Chinese who are very capable. Iraq, Iran, or North Korea might do just about as well,
considering the open revelations on nuclear warhead design."
From: Cricket ® 17/07/2003 3:19:35 PM

Except for the fact the North Korean nuclear weapons technology is not at the mini-tactical
stage, gfarlie. I firmly believe that at most they have clumsy first-stage weapons.
Even if they could launch a nuke at Australia (and I'm pretty sure they couldn't) - that's all the
more reason to stop such technology falling into the wrong hands.
From: gfairlie ® 17/07/2003 3:30:27 PM

cricket, my point was (as was indicated in the briefing paper by Cohen and Douglass on "low
yield nuke weapons"), that the capability is there, has been there and is accessible to any
nation prepared to build them.
I certainly wouldn't want to see nukes the weight of your average st bernard being commonly
available
From: the real ele ® 17/07/2003 3:33:53 PM

Very relevant couple of sections from your link defined-
one displaying the US motivation and reasoning i think:
"A number of countries with regional ambitions do not welcome the U.S. role
as a stabilizing power in their regions and have not accepted it passively.
Because of their ambitions, they want to place restraints on the U.S.
capability to project power or influence into their regions. They see the
acquisition of missile and WMD technology as a way of doing so.
Since the end of the Cold War, the geopolitical environment and the roles
of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction have both evolved.
Ballistic missiles provide a cost-effective delivery system that can be
used for both conventional and non-conventional weapons. For those seeking
to thwart the projection of U.S. power, the capability to combine ballistic
missiles with weapons of mass destruction provides a strategic counter to
U.S. conventional and information-based military superiority. With such
weapons, these nations can pose a serious threat to the United States, to
its forward-based forces and their staging areas and to U.S. friends and
allies.
Whether short- or long-range, a successfully launched ballistic missile has

a high probability of delivering its payload to its target compared to
other means of delivery. Emerging powers therefore see ballistic missiles
as highly effective deterrent weapons and as an effective means of coercing
or intimidating adversaries, including the United States."

the second bit re what Nkorea suposedly has:
"The extraordinary level of resources North Korea and Iran are now devoting
to developing their own ballistic missile capabilities poses a substantial
and immediate danger to the U.S., its vital interests and its allies. While
these nations' missile programs may presently be aimed primarily at
regional adversaries, they inevitably and inescapably engage the vital
interests of the U.S. as well. Their targeted adversaries include key U.S.
friends and allies. U.S. deployed forces are already at risk from these
nations' growing arsenals. Each of these nations places a high priority on
threatening U.S. territory, and each is even now pursuing advanced
ballistic missile capabilities to pose a direct threat to U.S. territory.
a. North Korea
There is evidence that North Korea is working hard on the Taepo Dong 2
(TD-2) ballistic missile. The status of the system's development cannot be
determined precisely. Nevertheless, the ballistic missile test
infrastructure in North Korea is well developed. Once the system is
assessed to be ready, a test flight could be conducted within six months of
a decision to do so. If North Korea judged the test to be a success, the
TD-2 could be deployed rapidly. It is unlikely the U.S. would know of such
a decision much before the missile was launched. This missile could reach
major cities and military bases in Alaska and the smaller, westernmost
islands in the Hawaiian chain. Light-weight variations of the TD-2 could
fly as far as 10,000 km, placing at risk western U.S. territory in an arc
extending northwest from Phoenix, Arizona, to Madison, Wisconsin. These
variants of the TD-2 would require additional time to develop and would
likely require an additional flight test.
North Korea has developed and deployed the No Dong, a medium-range

ballistic missile 3 (MRBM) using a scaled-up Scud engine, which is capable
of flying 1,300 km. With this missile, North Korea can threaten Japan,
South Korea and U.S. bases in the vicinity of North Korea. North Korea has
reportedly tested the No Dong only once, in 1993. The Commission judges
that the No Dong was operationally deployed long before the U.S. Government
recognized that fact. There is ample evidence that North Korea has created
a sizable missile production infrastructure, and therefore it is highly
likely that considerable numbers of No Dongs have been produced."
From: gfairlie ® 17/07/2003 3:48:32 PM

tr ele, and it goes around in circles where the MIF in Iraq intercepted a Liberian vessel
carrying NK sourced gyros for SR missiles.
its a vicious circle

defined
"What to do? You recognise that applying pressure, sanctions and insults to the North
Koreans could result in very serious consequences for the citizens of Australia and the US.
You recognise that North or South, Koreans are Koreans, and that they wish to be re-unified.
You stop projecting your tired and irrelevent cold-war worldview onto a society that you do not
understand or respect.
And...you face the fact that a re-unified Korea will probably mean that a US military presence
on the North Asian mainland is no longer required or desired."
US want to be a regional power in the region. So what do they do? Noone can be allowed to
question their right to dominate and influence...
From: mercury71 ® 17/07/2003 4:12:17 PM

"the real ele"
So NK has a few Medium ranged balistic missiles, currently they have only conventional
warheads on them, their ability to mount their current Neuks on these missiles would be the
same as strapping a car on the front of a racing bicycle, not very practical. Most of the current
NK retoric and bluster is exactly that. Lets call thier bluff and get their real capability out in the
open, Once this is revealed true negotiating positions will be known and we all will be better
off.
From: Kytro ® 17/07/2003 4:30:33 PM

[Once this is revealed true negotiating positions will be known and we all will be better off.]
--What if revaling = nuked japan
From: HKTiger ® 17/07/2003 4:33:00 PM

mercury71:
"Lets call thier bluff and get their real capability out in the open, Once this is revealed true
negotiating positions will be known and we all will be better off. "
Whoopsie, have you forgotten who's standing at the front line? There's a whole bunch of
Korean people whose lives will be on the line in your little game. Are you sure that calling their
bluff is an option? This is not poker, you know. You may be able to walk away from the table,
but a lot of innocent people won't. Are you sure you have the right to risk their lives on your
gamble?
From: Brett FF ® 17/07/2003 4:35:24 PM

Kytro,
What do you think would happen?

A nuclear war I would say? And the total destruction of NK? Yep that must be their evil plan.
From: Cricket ® 17/07/2003 4:58:24 PM

gfarlie, your point is well-taken but a lot of research and testing must go into miniaturisation of
nuclear weapons and NK are not at that stage yet.
Interestingly, NK have not conducted a nuclear test. This is no doubt due to geographical and
environmental constraints, but it remains to be seen if their nukes, if they indeed have them
as they claim, would actually work.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was revealed its lead in the missile-gap was
overstated to the extreme. Lacking the money to maintain its arsenal, if a nuclear exchange
had started between the USA and the USSR it is likely that perhaps half of the Soviet arsenal
would not have flown or detonated.

mercury, the report linked to was itself out of date. I included the assessment part as a base
line. I think the most significantr part was the reasoning behind the document- the need to
have unimpeded regional influence and power.
From: Steve 17/07/2003 5:06:03 PM

What about the ship seized by AFP and customs officers from Nth Korea that had millions of
dollars of herion on board, there is no private enterprise of that kind in the country the drugs
were being sold by the Nth Koreans. So drugs nuclear weapons they are just not nice people.
From: gfairlie ® 17/07/2003 6:46:14 PM

cricket, there was an assessment of a soviet war gaming evenyt in the 1980's The analysts
couldn't work out why some of the lead elements of the fixed wing combat groups weren't
launching.
they eventually discovered that the alcoholic coolant used in some of the aircraft had been
siphoned off to make "hooch". :) Kind of killed of the readiness of the wing. If I recall correctly,
the senior officers all went on snow shovelling excursions in siberia.
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North Koreans Launched A Three-Stage Rocket

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ABC Online Forum Page 1 of 8

From: defined ® 15/07/2003 1:16:01 PM

From: Cricket ® 15/07/2003 2:08:40 PM

From: defined ® 15/07/2003 2:52:21 PM

From: leone ® 15/07/2003 8:25:43 PM

From: Cricket ® 16/07/2003 3:40:29 PM

From: gfairlie ® 16/07/2003 7:11:28 PM

Sputnik-1 Technical Specifications

Construction: Aluminum alloy

184 lbs is a lot different from 2.2lbs

From: defined ® 17/07/2003 9:32:19 AM

From: MickyD 17/07/2003 10:08:34 AM

From: pistoph ® 17/07/2003 10:25:55 AM

I think that this type of thing is known as "doublespeak".

From: defined ® 17/07/2003 11:30:58 AM

From: Cricket ® 17/07/2003 11:38:47 AM

From: gfairlie ® 17/07/2003 1:09:33 PM

From: Cricket ® 17/07/2003 3:19:35 PM

From: gfairlie ® 17/07/2003 3:30:27 PM

From: the real ele ® 17/07/2003 3:33:53 PM

Whether short- or long-range, a successfully launched ballistic missile has

From: the real ele ® 17/07/2003 3:38:30 PM

North Korea has developed and deployed the No Dong, a medium-range

From: gfairlie ® 17/07/2003 3:48:32 PM

its a vicious circle

From: the real ele ® 17/07/2003 4:03:41 PM

From: mercury71 ® 17/07/2003 4:12:17 PM

From: Kytro ® 17/07/2003 4:30:33 PM

--What if revaling = nuked japan

From: HKTiger ® 17/07/2003 4:33:00 PM

From: Brett FF ® 17/07/2003 4:35:24 PM

What do you think would happen?

From: Cricket ® 17/07/2003 4:58:24 PM

From: the real ele ® 17/07/2003 4:59:18 PM

From: Steve 17/07/2003 5:06:03 PM

From: gfairlie ® 17/07/2003 6:46:14 PM

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