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Nm 1937, Richard v Maurice McDonald m mt ca hng nh California ca hng McDonald's u tin.

n. T ca hng nh ny, hai anh em m rng cng ngh ch bin thc phm. Nm 1954, Ray Kroc, mt ngi kinh doanh sn phm sa k hp ng nhng quyn v ton quyn nhng quyn McDonald's trn ton nc M v th gii. Thnh cng ca McDonald's mt phn ln l do iu chnh kp thi vi nhng iu kin th trng khc nhau Cc chui sn phm khng ngng thay i, ph hp vi khu v khc nhau
o o o o o o Puerto Rico, McJustas del Sabor vi nc st guava c: McCroissants bn cng bia Philippines: m McSpaghetti Thi land: Samurai Pork Burger vi nc st ngt Malaysia, McRendang vi nc ng n : Maharaja Mac vi tht cu

Sau khi b mt mt phn th phn ni a, nm 1997, McDonald's quyt nh gim gi tng doanh thu

Bi 2: PHN TCH CU Khi lp k hoch v ra quyt nh chnh sch, cc nh qun l phi nm c cc c tnh ca cu v sn phm ca h nhm t c mc tiu ca doanh nghip, thm ch nhm m bo s sng cn ca doanh nghip.

Thng tin cu v phn ng ca khch hng i vi:


S thay i gi Qung co ng gi S i mi ca sn phm Cc iu kin kinh t

l cn thit i vi chin lc pht trin sn phm i vi chin lc cnh tranh, nhng thng tin v s phn ng ca khch hng i vi nhng thay i v gi c ca cc i th cnh tranh, v cht lng ca sn phm cnh tranh ng mt vai tr cc k quan trng
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CU V CO GIN
co gin o lng s nhy cm ca lng cu i vi s thay i ca cc nhn t nh hng n lng cu.

Mt s co gin:
co gin ca cu theo gi co gin cho ca cu co gin ca cu theo thu nhp

co gin ca cu theo gi (cc nhn t quyt nh)


1. 2.
3. 4.

S lng v s sn c ca cc hng ho thay th Chi tiu cho hng ho so vi tng ngn sch ca ngi tiu dng bn ca sn phm Khong thi gian xem xt

V d:
co gin ca cu theo gi mt s mt hng M Mt hng Qun o Gas tiu dng Thuc l in N trang Ngn hn 0.90 1.40 0.46 0.13 0.41 Di hn 2.90 2.10 1.89 1.89 0.67
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co gin ca cu theo gi
Mi quan h gia co gin v tng doanh thu

Nu P P P P

Cu l

Q
Q

co gin nu

TR TR TR TR

( %D Q > ( %D Q < ( %D Q > ( %D Q <

%D P) %D P) %D P)

km co gin nu co gin nu km co gin nu

Q Q

%D P)

co gin ca cu theo gi
Cu, tng doanh thu, doanh thu bin, v co gin
Gi v Doanh thu bin ($)

D p0 0
Tng doanh thu ($)

E>1 E=1 E<1

D
q0 MR Lng

q0

Lng

co gin cho
co gin cho o lng mc phn ng tng i ca lng mua mt hng ho no khi gi ca hng ho khc thay i, trong iu kin gi ca hng ho v thu nhp khng i.
co gin cho = phn trm thay i ca lng cu theo phn trm thay i ca gi hng ho khc.

%QA EX %PB

co gin cho co gin cho c th dng hoc m.


o co gin cho l dng i vi hng ho thay th o co gin cho l m i vi hng ho b sung.

V d
co gin
M t h n g c h o c a c u t h e o g i h n g h a k h c m t s m t h n g M

Ga Tht ln Qun o Gii tr Ng cc

in Tht b Thc phm Thc phm C t


i

co gin 0.80 0.40 -0.18 -0.72


0 . 8 7

co gin theo thu nhp


Q
Cp cao Thit yu Cp thp
co gin theo thu nhp > 1: hng ho cp cao (xa x) co gin theo thu nhp > 0, v <1: hng ho thit yu co gin theo thu nhp < 0: hng ho cp thp
co gin ca cu theo
t h u n h p m t s m

t hng M

t hng Ru in Tht b Bia Tht g


M

co gin 2.59 1.94 1.06 0.46 0.28


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co gin ca cu v gnh nng thu


Cu cng co gin nh cung cp cng chu nhiu thu.

P
S

S S

D Q

D 0

D Q
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co gin ca cung v gnh nng thu


Cung cng co gin, ngi tiu dng cng chu nhiu thu.

S1

S1

S S

P1 P2 P*

Q1 Q2 Q*

Q
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Bi tp vn dng 1
Cho hm c u vsn ph m X ca doanh nghi p A nh- sau : Qx = 5 - 2PX + 1,5I + 0,8PY - 3PZ Trong : QX : l- ng b n ca doanh nghi p PX : Gi ca sn ph mX I : Thu nh p dnh cho chi tiu PY : Gi ca sn ph m Y (Y v X l 2 hng ho thay th ) PZ : Gi ca sn ph m Z (Z v X l 2 hng ho bsung) Trong n m nay, PX =2, I = 4, PY = 2,5 v PZ = 1 a. T nh l- ng b n ca sn ph m X trong n m nay. b. T nh hs co d n ca c u theo gi hng ho X, theo thu nh p, theo gi c hng ho kh c. c. D o n l- ng b n sn ph m X trong n m t i n u h ng gim gi X 10%, thu nh p t ng 5%, gi ca Y gim 10%, v gi hng ho Z khng i. d. H ng phi thay i gi bao nhiu n u mun t ng 10% l- ng b n so v i n m nay.
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C LNG CU
Bn c th xc nh c hnh vi ca khch hng th no?
Lm th no c th c lng c ng cu thc t?

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T L thuyt n Thc t
D: Qx = f(px ,Y, pr , pe, , N)

u l mi quan h nh lng gia cu v cc nhn t nh hng?


Lm th no c th c lng c hm cu? Cc nh qun l c th hiu v s dng nhng c lng ny nh th no?
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Cc phng php ph bin nht c s dng bao gm:


a) Phng vn hay iu tra khch hng
c lng cu v cc sn phm mi kim nh s phn ng ca khch hng i vi s thay i ca gi c v qung co kim nh s gn b i vi cc sn phm hin c

b) Nghin cu v th nghim th trng


th nghim sn phm mi hay nhng sn phm c ci tin trong nhng iu kin nht nh.

c) Phn tch hi quy


s dng nhng s liu qu kh c lng hm cu
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Phng vn khch hng (iu tra)


Hi nhng khch hng tim nng xem h phn ng th no vi nhng thay i c th v gi, thu nhp, gi hng ha lin quan, cc chi ph qung co, cc khuyn khch vay tn dng,
Tip cn trc tip (ti cc trung tm thng mi, hay chn mu gm nhng ngi tiu dng i din ph hp vi mc ch) Phng vn qua in thoi
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Phng vn khch hng (iu tra) (tip theo)


Nhng hn ch
o
o

La chn mt mu i din th no l mt mu tt? chch ca cc phn ng mc tin cy ca n th no? Khng c kh nng hay khng sn lng tr li cu hi mt cch chnh xc

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Phng vn khch hng (iu tra)


tip theo

V nhng hn ch trn, cc doanh nghip thng b sung hoc lp k hoch ph cho iu tra ngi tiu dng bng nghin cu quan st Nghin cu quan st l thu thp cc thng tin v s thch ca ngi tiu dng thng qua vic xem h mua v s dng sn phm (thng s dng my quay camera siu th)

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Nghin cu v th nghim th trng


C th thc nghim trong cc iu kin th nghim hay thc hin trong th trng thc
nhng ngi tnh nguyn tham gia th nghim c cho mt s tin nht nh v c yu cu phi chi tiu ht trong mt ca hng hoc dn dng xem h phn ng th no vi nhng thay i v gi, bao gi,
chn mt s th trng c cc c tnh kinh t x hi tng t, sau thay i gi c (bao b, kiu marketing,) mt s th trng hay ca hng v ghi chp li nhng phn ng (mua sm) ca ngi tiu dng. C th kt hp vi phng php phng vn
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Nghin cu v th nghim th trng (tip theo)


Cc vn pht sinh khi tin hnh nghin cu v th nghim th trng:
o chi ph cao

o thiu ngi lm th nghim


o nhng ngi c chn th nghim c lin quan n vn cn nghin cu hay khng? Liu h c lm nghim tc hay khng?

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Phn tch hi quy v c lng cu


y l k thut thng xuyn c s dng c lng cu

c lng mi quan h lng ho gia bin ph thuc v cc bin c lp

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Phn tch hi quy v c lng cu (tip theo)

Dng tng qut ca ng cu Qi = f(Y,pi,ps,pc,Z)


Nu cn c lng cc h s ca hm cu th cn chn mt dng hm c th Dng hm ph bin c gi nh l hm cu tuyn tnh v hm cu m

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Hm cu c dng tng qut


Hm cu tuyn tnh
Qi = + 1Y + 2pi + 3ps + 4pc + 5Z + e o Qi = lng cu v hng ho i o Y = thu nhp o pi = gi hng ho i o ps = gi hng ho thay th o pc = gi hng ho b sung o Z = cc nhn t quyt nh cu hng ho i khc o e = sai s

Hm cu m
Qi = AY1pi2ps3pc4Z5 logQi = + 1logY + 2logpi + 3logps + 4logpc + 5logZ + e
o 2 l h s co gin

o Gi tr ca v i ?

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v i phi c c lng t s liu trong qu kh


S liu s dng trong phn tch hi quy s liu cho (cross-sectional data) cung cp thng tin v cc bin s trong mt thi k nht nh
s liu chui thi gian (time series data) cung cp thng tin v cc bin s trong nhiu thi k

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c lng phng trnh hi quy

Tm mt ng ph hp nht vi s liu
ng ph hp nht l mt tp hp cc im s liu X,Y lm ti thiu ho tng cc bnh phng khong cch theo chiu dc t cc im s liu n ng ng ny c gi l ng hi quy, v phng trnh c gi l phng trnh hi quy

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Hi quy trong Excel


SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.980624 R Square 0.961623 Adjusted R Square 0.9534 Standard Error 14.39468 Observations 18 ANOVA df Regression Residual Total SS MS F Significance F 3 72689.38 24229.79 116.9353 3.79E-10 14 2900.896 207.2068 17 75590.28 P-value Lower 95%Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% 1.66E-07 610.0336 963.7363 610.0336 963.7363 4.52E-09 -1.41033 -1.00269 -1.41033 -1.00269 2.88E-06 0.208926 0.376283 0.208926 0.376283 0.003259 0.001976 0.008045 0.001976 0.008045
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Coefficients Standard Error t Stat Intercept 786.8849 82.45637 9.543046 X Variable 1 -1.20651 0.095031 -12.6959 X Variable 20.292605 0.039015 7.499827 X Variable 3 0.00501 0.001415 3.540975

Kim nh t (t-test): kim nh mc ngha thng k ca mi h s hi quy c lng c


b t SE b
b: h s c c lng SEb: sai s chun ca h s c lng Nu gi tr tuyt i ca t ln hn 1.96, h s c lng c coi l c ngha mc 5%. Nu h s c lng tho mn t-test, th bin thc s c tc ng n cu

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H s

2 R

H s R2 o lng mc ph hp ca ng hi quy vi s liu thc.


R2 lun nm gia 0 v 1 Nu R2 gn bng 1 ng hi quy rt ph hp vi s liu Ngoi ra c th hiu n l phn trm bin thin c gii thch.

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Cc bc thc hin hi quy


Xc nh cc bin c lp thch hp v thit lp dng m hnh hi quy. c lng cc h s a v b Kim tra cc c tnh ca m hnh (R2, cc t-test cho mi h s b) S dng ng hi quy d bo (v xc nh tnh chnh xc ca n)

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Thit lp dng m hnh hi quy


Cc bin xp x c s dng thay cho mt bin thc no rt kh o lng, v d nh th hiu Cc bin gi (X1= 0 hoc 1) l bin nh tnh, v d nh gii tnh hoc v tr a l

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Bi tp vn dng 2
Cng ty Cigliano c lng cu v i li bng my bay gia Bc M v chu u: lnQ = 2.737 1.247 lnP + 1.905 lnGNP (-5.071) (7.286) R2 = 0.97 Q: s lng khch hng (1000 ngi), P: gi v, GNP: GNP cu M S liu trong ngoc l gi tr t o Hy cho bit c lng trn c tin cy khng? V sao? o Hm cu c lng trn cho cng ty nhng thng tin g?

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