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October 24, 2012 TO: Interested Parties FR: Marc Silverman RE: Polling results in Pennsylvania Senate District

49 Recent polling in Pennsylvanias 49th State Senate districts shows that with just two weeks left until the election, Democrat Sean Wiley holds a commanding lead over his Republican opponent, Janet Anderson. The district continues to trend strongly Democratic as both President Obama and U.S. Senator Casey maintain double-digit leads over their Republican opponents, and a Democratic candidate for State Senate is heavily favored on the generic ballot. Sean Wiley is poised to win this seat back for Democrats as long as he continues to have the resources to match Anderson and Senate Republicans, who will do whatever they can to hold on to this seat. The Current Vote Wiley has a 19-point lead over Anderson (57% Wiley / 38% Anderson / 6% undecided). Wiley has gained four-points since the July benchmark poll while Anderson has only gained one-point (53% Wiley / 37% Anderson / 10% undecided), despite outspending him by a two-to-one margin. Candidate Support Measures. A majority of voters give Sean Wiley a favorable rating (51% favorable / 24% unfavorable / 25% cant rate), putting him above the desired two-to-one favorable-tounfavorable ratio.

The negative tenor of the campaign has taken its toll on Andersons popularity as she receives a 36% favorable / 36% unfavorable rating, while 28% of voters do not know enough about her to have an opinion.

The Political Environment Democrats have a 17-point advantage on the generic ballot (52% Democratic / 35% Republican / 13% persuadable), which is virtually unchanged since September (52% Democratic / 36% Republican / 12% persuadable).

The top of the Democratic ticket continues to do well as President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 17 points (55% Obama / 38% Romney / 7% undecided) and Senator Casey leads Republican Tom Smith by 13 points (52% Casey / 39% Smith / 9% undecided).

Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies conducted N=400 interviews with likely 2012 general election voters in Pennsylvanias 49th State Senate District. Interviews were conducted October 21-23, 2012. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for these results is +4.9% with a 95% confidence level.

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