Professional Documents
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PRECIPITACION
si hay dos o tres estaciones ndice se procede igual con cada una de ellas , obtenindose 2 o 3
valores de X . el valor final de X ser el promedio de esos valores.
Mtodo de la recta de regresin
Por razones de comonidad se va a designar con y a la estacin con datos incompletos y con x
a la estacin ndice. Bsicamente , el mtodo consiste en :
Cuando hay varias estaciones ndice surge la interrogante de cul de ellas utilizar . y la respuesta
es la que tenga mejor correlacin.
PRECIPITACION
Sx : desviacin estndar para todos los datos de X que forman parejas con los de Y.
Sy : desviacin estndar para todos los datos de Y
PRECIPITACION
PARA FINES ACADEMICOS SE TOMO LOS SIGUIENTES DATOS DEL OBSERVATORIO EN MADRID DE
PRECIPITACION ANUALES DE 35 AOS.
DATOS DE PRECIPITACION ANUAL POR ESTACION METEOROLOGICA DE UN OBSERVATORIO EN
MADRID (1976-2010)
Ao
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
PROMEDIO
ESTACION (X)
Mm
304
589.1
335.6
386.4
231.1
362.9
300.9
373.1
400.4
316.5
504.7
X
489.6
377.9
338
258
335.4
418.6
384.2
338.8
327.7
284.5
393.3
430.6
331.3
391.5
458
461
360.1
423
515
698
598
455
621
417.98
ESTACION 2
Mm
372.3
383
375
453
517
482
616
319
509
285
384
313
467.8
542.2
299.2
528
388.2
491.5
349.9
400.1
451.5
371
512.4
348.7
390.3
446.7
409.5
426.2
353.4
306.5
510
450.4
425.9
417.7
348.8
434.28
ESTACION 3
mm
392.4
430.9
403.4
448.1
424.9
371.9
458.3
312.1
399.5
386.8
328.3
406.2
606.9
469.3
252.4
493.9
511.7
508.4
535.4
418.4
404.8
308.8
322.5
690.7
355.8
401
293
571.5
381.3
393.5
240.2
552.3
472.1
394.4
465.6
436.38
ESTACION 4
Mm
636.1
588
445.7
513.8
746.4
355.9
513.8
529.7
354.6
383.3
589.5
305.6
507.5
738.7
354.7
300.3
435.7
609
475.8
549.3
367.5
425.1
369
260.1
494.3
338.8
387.5
544.9
413.9
560.7
304.3
338.7
356.1
470.6
293.2
471.29
3
PRECIPITACION
primer metodo
Usando la siguiente relacin
Se dato faltante final X ser el promedio de estos tres valores: 201.25 , 389.07,271.03
X =320.45 mm
que corresponde la precipitacin anual para el ao de 1987
PRECIPITACION
segundo mtodo
Mtodo de la recta de regresin
CORRELACION ESTACION 1 CON LA ESTACION 2
SUMA :
PRECIPITACION
(Y-Ym)^2
Mm
10338.8224
33642.8964
4911.2064
371.7184
30478.1764
1830.1284
10978.8484
1061.4564
27.8784
7953.0724
9804.9604
(X-Xm)^2
mm
2421.6241
1483.0201
2163.1801
991.6201
9118.3401
3659.0401
37826.3601
10508.3001
7654.5001
18634.9801
1407.0001
(Y-Ym)
mm
-101.68
183.42
-70.08
-19.28
-174.58
-42.78
-104.78
-32.58
-5.28
-89.18
99.02
(X-Xm)
mm
-49.21
-38.51
-46.51
31.49
95.49
60.49
194.49
-102.51
87.49
-136.51
-37.51
(Y-Ym)*(X-Xm)
mm^2
5003.6728
-7063.5042
3259.4208
-607.1272
-16670.6442
-2587.7622
-20378.6622
3339.7758
-461.9472
12173.9618
-3714.2402
7042.5664
771.7284
4580.5824
21809.3824
4939.2784
166.9264
461.3904
4472.9344
6080.8804
14684.5924
153.2644
621.0064
5532.3844
201.0724
2737.3824
3060.3024
2077.5364
299.9824
11950.8624
85450.9824
36986.9824
2432.4624
46362.7024
374276.35
2142.7641
14566.0761
14959.7361
11340.1201
1109.5561
4898.6001
5127.9921
458.3881
899.4001
2551.2601
8260.9921
5301.2961
974.0641
634.5361
144.2401
21.9961
4638.9721
13227.3001
7830.4801
834.6321
19.2721
14.5161
5286.7441
201110.899
83.92
-27.78
-67.68
-147.68
-70.28
12.92
-21.48
-66.88
-77.98
-121.18
-12.38
24.92
-74.38
-14.18
52.32
55.32
-45.58
17.32
109.32
292.32
192.32
49.32
215.32
46.29
120.69
-122.31
106.49
-33.31
69.99
-71.61
-21.41
29.99
-50.51
90.89
-72.81
-31.21
25.19
-12.01
4.69
-68.11
-115.01
88.49
28.89
4.39
-3.81
-72.71
3884.6568
-3352.7682
8277.9408
-15726.4432
2341.0268
904.2708
1538.1828
1431.9008
-2338.6202
6120.8018
-1125.2182
-1814.4252
2321.3998
-357.1942
-628.3632
259.4508
3104.4538
-1991.9732
9673.7268
8445.1248
844.2848
-187.9092
-15655.9172
-21738.6668
PRECIPITACION
Xm= 421.51 mm
Ym= 405.68
n=34
Sy = 106.4974533
Ex= 78.06580352 mm
r= -0.079235337
PRECIPITACION
SUMA :
PRECIPITACION
(Y-Y)^2
mm
10338.8224
33642.8964
4911.2064
371.7184
30478.1764
1830.1284
10978.8484
1061.4564
27.8784
7953.0724
9804.9604
(X-XML)^2
mm
969.6996
54.1696
405.6196
603.1936
1.8496
2666.6896
1208.2576
12418.8736
577.9216
1349.8276
9070.6576
(Y-Y)
mm
-101.68
183.42
-70.08
-19.28
-174.58
-42.78
-104.78
-32.58
-5.28
-89.18
99.02
(X-XML)
mm
-31.14
7.36
-20.14
24.56
1.36
-51.64
34.76
-111.44
-24.04
-36.74
-95.24
(Y-Y)*(X-XML)
mm^2
3166.3152
1349.9712
1411.4112
-473.5168
-237.4288
2209.1592
-3642.1528
3630.7152
126.9312
3276.4732
-9430.6648
7042.5664
771.7284
4580.5824
21809.3824
4939.2784
166.9264
461.3904
4472.9344
6080.8804
14684.5924
153.2644
621.0064
5532.3844
201.0724
2737.3824
3060.3024
2077.5364
299.9824
11950.8624
85450.9824
36986.9824
2432.4624
46362.7024
374276.35
33620.8896
2093.9776
29288.8996
4950.5296
7772.1856
7201.2196
12512.6596
26.4196
351.1876
13165.2676
10209.0816
71374.4656
4588.7076
508.0516
17040.6916
21892.1616
1784.2176
902.4016
33613.5556
16579.1376
2358.0736
849.1396
1769.0436
323778.724
83.92
-27.78
-67.68
-147.68
-70.28
12.92
-21.48
-66.88
-77.98
-121.18
-12.38
24.92
-74.38
-14.18
52.32
55.32
-45.58
17.32
109.32
292.32
192.32
49.32
215.32
183.36
45.76
-171.14
70.36
88.16
84.86
111.86
-5.14
-18.74
-114.74
-101.04
267.16
-67.74
-22.54
-130.54
147.96
-42.24
-30.04
-183.34
128.76
48.56
-29.14
42.06
15387.5712
-1271.2128
11582.7552
-10390.7648
-6195.8848
1096.3912
-2402.7528
343.7632
1461.3452
13904.1932
1250.8752
6657.6272
5038.5012
319.6172
-6829.8528
8185.1472
1925.2992
-520.2928
-20042.7288
37639.1232
9339.0592
-1437.1848
9056.3592
75484.1668
PRECIPITACION
Xm= 423.54 mm
Ym= 405.68 mm
n=34
Sy = 106.4974533 mm
Sx= 99.05289747 mm
r= 0.216838063
10
PRECIPITACION
SUMA :
PRECIPITACION
(Y-Ym)^2
mm
10338.8224
33642.8964
4911.2064
371.7184
30478.1764
1830.1284
10978.8484
1061.4564
27.8784
7953.0724
9804.9604
(X-Xm)^2
mm
31922.9689
17048.5249
137.5929
3177.5769
83503.6609
10308.3409
3177.5769
5222.9529
10574.0089
5495.2569
17442.4849
(Y-Ym)
mm
-101.68
183.42
-70.08
-19.28
-174.58
-42.78
-104.78
-32.58
-5.28
-89.18
99.02
(X-Xm)
mm
178.67
130.57
-11.73
56.37
288.97
-101.53
56.37
72.27
-102.83
-74.13
132.07
(Y-Ym)*(X-Xm)
mm^2
-18167.1656
23949.1494
822.0384
-1086.8136
-50448.3826
4343.4534
-5906.4486
-2354.5566
542.9424
6610.9134
13077.5714
7042.5664
771.7284
4580.5824
21809.3824
4939.2784
166.9264
461.3904
4472.9344
6080.8804
14684.5924
153.2644
621.0064
5532.3844
201.0724
2737.3824
3060.3024
2077.5364
299.9824
11950.8624
85450.9824
36986.9824
2432.4624
46362.7024
374276.35
2507.0049
79112.8129
10553.4529
24689.8369
472.1929
22973.4649
337.4569
8440.0969
8087.4049
1045.2289
7819.8649
38939.1289
1359.3969
14073.0769
4890.2049
7651.0009
1894.8609
10664.6929
23448.7969
14096.8129
10267.7689
173.4489
26971.4929
508480.447
83.92
-27.78
-67.68
-147.68
-70.28
12.92
-21.48
-66.88
-77.98
-121.18
-12.38
24.92
-74.38
-14.18
52.32
55.32
-45.58
17.32
109.32
292.32
192.32
49.32
215.32
50.07
281.27
-102.73
-157.13
-21.73
151.57
18.37
91.87
-89.93
-32.33
-88.43
-197.33
36.87
-118.63
-69.93
87.47
-43.53
103.27
-153.13
-118.73
-101.33
13.17
-164.23
4201.8744
-7813.6806
6952.7664
23204.9584
1527.1844
1958.2844
-394.5876
-6144.2656
7012.7414
3917.7494
1094.7634
-4917.4636
-2742.3906
1682.1734
-3658.7376
4838.8404
1984.0974
1788.6364
-16740.1716
-34707.1536
-19487.7856
649.5444
-35362.0036
-99771.9244
12
PRECIPITACION
Xm= 457.4 mm
Ym= 405.68 mm
n=34
Sy = 106.4974533 mm
Sx= 124.1309727 mm
r= -0.228704667
Elegimos r= 0.22 de la correlacion 1 con 3
Usando la siguiente ecuacin :
a= Ym= 405.68 mm
mm
b=-0.22*106.4974533/99.05
b=-0.237
Xm=457.43
El dato faltante :
Ao 1987
X =406.2 mm
Y=401.6 mm
13
PRECIPITACION
Ao
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
ESTACION (X)
mm
304
589.1
335.6
386.4
231.1
362.9
300.9
373.1
400.4
316.5
504.7
401.6
489.6
377.9
338
258
335.4
418.6
384.2
338.8
327.7
284.5
393.3
430.6
331.3
391.5
458
461
360.1
423
515
698
598
455
621
ESTACION 2
mm
372.3
383
375
453
517
482
616
319
509
285
384
313
467.8
542.2
299.2
528
388.2
491.5
349.9
400.1
451.5
371
512.4
348.7
390.3
446.7
409.5
426.2
353.4
306.5
510
450.4
425.9
417.7
348.8
ESTACION 3
mm
392.4
430.9
403.4
448.1
424.9
371.9
458.3
312.1
399.5
386.8
328.3
406.2
606.9
469.3
252.4
493.9
511.7
508.4
535.4
418.4
404.8
308.8
322.5
690.7
355.8
401
293
571.5
381.3
393.5
240.2
552.3
472.1
394.4
465.6
ESTACION 4
mm
636.1
588
445.7
513.8
746.4
355.9
513.8
529.7
354.6
383.3
589.5
305.6
507.5
738.7
354.7
300.3
435.7
609
475.8
549.3
367.5
425.1
369
260.1
494.3
338.8
387.5
544.9
413.9
560.7
304.3
338.7
356.1
470.6
293.2
14
PRECIPITACION
ANALISIS DE CONSISTENCIA
Cualquier cambio en la ubicacin como en la exposicin de un pluvimetro puede conllevar un
cambio relativo en la cantidad de lluvia captada por el pluvimetro . el registro completo
publicado representara condiciones inexistentes . un registro de este tipo se dice que es
inconsistente.
Una forma de detectar las inconsistencia s es mediante las curvas doble msicas .
Una curva doble msica se construye llevando en ordenadas los valores acumulados de la estacin
en estudio y en abscisas los valores acumulados de un patrn, que consiste en el promedio de
varias estaciones ndice.
Se supone que las estaciones que componen el patrn son confiables este ser consistente y por
lo tanto el quiebre debe atribuirse a una inconsistencia de la estacin en estudio., A
Es necesario ajustar los valores del periodo ms lejano para reducirlos a las condiciones de
ubicacin , exposicin, etc.
Se ha partido de suponer que el patrn es consistente . sin embargo se recomienda verificar la
consistencia de cada estacin ndice. Este se hace dibujando una curva doble msica entre cada
estacin y el patrn formado por las restantes. Aquellas estaciones que resulten inconsistentes
deben ser removidas del patrn.
Al trazar la curva doble msica no se consideran los quiebres que no persisten por ms de 5 aos,
ya que se considera que los quiebres cortos se deben principalmente a la variabilidad inherente a
los datos hidrolgicos.
No se recomienda usar curvas dobles msicas en regiones montaosas por que las diferencias en
los registros de estaciones cercanas pueden deberse a eventos meteorolgicos diferentes.
E n las siguientes paginas verificaremos la consistencia de los datos de las estacin 2 , 3,4 y luego
la consistencia de la estacin 1
15
PRECIPITACION
CONSISTENCIA DE LA ESTACION 2
ESTACION 2
mm
372.3
383
375
453
517
482
616
319
509
285
384
313
467.8
542.2
299.2
528
388.2
491.5
349.9
400.1
451.5
371
512.4
348.7
390.3
446.7
409.5
426.2
353.4
306.5
510
450.4
425.9
417.7
348.8
ACUM((E3+E4)/2)
mm
514.25
1023.7
1448.25
1929.2
2514.85
2878.75
3364.8
3785.7
4162.75
4547.8
5006.7
5362.6
5919.8
6523.8
6827.35
7224.45
7698.15
8256.85
8762.45
9246.3
9632.45
9999.4
10345.15
10820.55
11245.6
11615.5
11955.75
12513.95
12911.55
13388.65
13660.9
14106.4
14520.5
14953
15332.4
16
PRECIPITACION
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PRECIPITACION
CONSISTENCIA DE LA ESTACION 3
ESTACION 3
mm
392.4
430.9
403.4
448.1
424.9
371.9
458.3
312.1
399.5
386.8
328.3
406.2
606.9
469.3
252.4
493.9
511.7
508.4
535.4
418.4
404.8
308.8
322.5
690.7
355.8
401
293
571.5
381.3
393.5
240.2
552.3
472.1
394.4
465.6
ACUM((E2+E4)/2)
mm
504.2
989.7
1400.05
1883.45
2515.15
2934.1
3499
3923.35
4355.15
4689.3
5176.05
5485.35
5973
6613.45
6940.4
7354.55
7766.5
8316.75
8729.6
9204.3
9613.8
10011.85
10452.55
10756.95
11199.25
11592
11990.5
12476.05
12859.7
13293.3
13700.45
14095
14486
14930.15
15251.15
18
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PRECIPITACION
CONSISTENCIA DE LA ESTACION 4
ESTACION 4
mm
636.1
588
445.7
513.8
746.4
355.9
513.8
529.7
354.6
383.3
589.5
305.6
507.5
738.7
354.7
300.3
435.7
609
475.8
549.3
367.5
425.1
369
260.1
494.3
338.8
387.5
544.9
413.9
560.7
304.3
338.7
356.1
470.6
293.2
ACUM((E2+E3)/2)
mm
382.35
789.3
1178.5
1629.05
2100
2526.95
3064.1
3379.65
3833.9
4169.8
4525.95
4885.55
5422.9
5928.65
6204.45
6715.4
7165.35
7665.3
8107.95
8517.2
8945.35
9285.25
9702.7
10222.4
10595.45
11019.3
11370.55
11869.4
12236.75
12586.75
12961.85
13463.2
13912.2
14318.25
14725.45
20
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PRECIPITACION
CONSISTENCIA DE LA ESTACION1
Ao
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
ACUM
ACUM
(EX) ((E2+E3+E4)/3)
mm
304
893.1
1228.7
1615.1
1846.2
2209.1
2510
2883.1
3283.5
3600
4104.7
4506.3
4995.9
5373.8
5711.8
5969.8
6305.2
6723.8
7108
7446.8
7774.5
8059
8452.3
8882.9
9214.2
9605.7
10064
10525
10885
11308
11823
12521
13119
13574
14195
mm
466.93
934.23
1342.26
1813.89
2376.66
2779.93
3309.3
3696.23
4117.26
4468.96
4902.89
5244.49
5771.89
6355.29
6657.39
7098.12
7543.32
8079.62
8533.32
8989.25
9397.18
9765.48
10166.78
10599.95
11013.42
11408.92
11772.25
12286.45
12669.32
13089.55
13441.05
13888.18
14306.21
14733.78
15102.98
22
PRECIPITACION
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
23
PRECIPITACION
PREC.MEDIA
ANUAL (mm)
ESTACION 1
ESTACION 2
ESTACION 3
ESTACION 4
405.56571
418.40571
423.04857
453.08857
Es el mtodo ms sencillo pero que solo da buenos resultados cuando el numero de pluvimetros
es grande.
POLIGONO DE THIESSEN
El mtodo consiste en :
24
PRECIPITACION
CURVAS ISOYETAS
Se define isoyeta la lnea de igual precipitacin el mtodo consiste en :
trazar las isoyetas , interpolando entre las diversas estaciones de modo similar a como se
trazan las curvas de nivel.
hallar las reas a1,a2,a3,.an entre cada 2 isoyetas seguidas.
si po,p1,p2,p3,..pn son las precipitaciones medias anuales representadas por las
isoyetas respectivas , entonces :
De los tres mtodos , el ms preciso es el de las isoyetas , por que en la construccin de las curas
isoyetas el ingeniero puede utilizar todo su conocimiento sobre los posibles efectos orogrficos.
Por ejemplo, si existen dos estaciones en un avalle, una en daca ladera, o se puede suponer que la
precipitacin que cae durante una tormenta varia linealmente entre las dos estaciones.
25
PRECIPITACION
Ao
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
ESTACION (X)
mm
304
589.1
335.6
386.4
231.1
362.9
300.9
373.1
400.4
316.5
504.7
443.33
489.6
377.9
338
258
335.4
418.6
384.2
338.8
327.7
284.5
ESTACION 2
mm
372.3
383
375
453
517
482
616
319
509
285
384
313
467.8
542.2
299.2
528
388.2
491.5
349.9
400.1
451.5
371
ESTACION 3
mm
392.4
430.9
403.4
448.1
424.9
371.9
458.3
312.1
399.5
386.8
328.3
406.2
606.9
469.3
252.4
493.9
511.7
508.4
535.4
418.4
404.8
308.8
ESTACION 4
mm
636.1
588
445.7
513.8
746.4
355.9
513.8
529.7
354.6
383.3
589.5
305.6
507.5
738.7
354.7
300.3
435.7
609
475.8
549.3
367.5
425.1
26
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
393.3
430.6
331.3
391.5
458
461
360.1
423
515
698
598
455
621
PRECIPITACION
512.4
348.7
390.3
446.7
409.5
426.2
353.4
306.5
510
450.4
425.9
417.7
348.8
322.5
690.7
355.8
401
293
571.5
381.3
393.5
240.2
552.3
472.1
394.4
465.6
369
260.1
494.3
338.8
387.5
544.9
413.9
560.7
304.3
338.7
356.1
470.6
293.2
Mtodo 1
PROMEDIO ARITMETICO
ESTACION 1
ESTACION 2
ESTACION 3
ESTACION 4
405.56571
418.40571
423.04857
453.08857
PREC.MEDIA
ANUAL (mm)
p = 425.047 mm
27
PRECIPITACION
Mtodo 2
POLIGONO DE THIESSEN
PASO 1 Y 2
28
PRECIPITACION
PASO 3 :
PRECIPITACION
ESTACION 1 ESTACION 2
ESTACION 3
ESTACION 4
PREC.MEDIA ANUAL
(mm)
405.57
418.41
423.05
453.09
AREA DE
INFLUENCIA(Km^2)
14.14
18.03
18.73
13.52
P =424.09 mm
Mtodo 3
CURVAS ISOYETAS
-trazar las isoyetas , interpolando entre las diversas estaciones de modo similar a como se trazan
las curvas de nivel.
30
P(n-1)
mm
P(n) mm
P(n-1) - P(n)
405.57
406
408
410
412
414
416
418
420
422
424
426
428
430
432
434
436
438
440
442
444
446
448
450
452
406
408
410
412
414
416
418
420
422
424
426
428
430
432
434
436
438
440
442
444
446
448
450
452
453.09
405.57 - 406
406 - 408
408 - 410
410 - 412
412 - 414
414 - 416
416 - 418
418 - 420
420 - 422
422 - 424
424 - 426
426 - 428
428 - 430
430 - 432
432 - 434
434 - 436
436 - 438
438 - 440
440 - 442
442 - 444
444 - 446
446 - 448
448 - 450
450 - 452
452 - 453.09
PRECIPITACION
A
PRECIPITACION MEDIA DE
DOS ISOYETAS SEGUIDAS
(P(n-1)+P(n))/2 mm
405.785
407
409
411
413
415
417
419
421
423
425
427
429
431
433
435
437
439
441
443
445
447
449
451
452.545
SUMA :
A*B
117888001.2
863652220.6
2647012516
2986811162
2129486751
2246024486
1659971773
1466504760
1162468273
836549969.8
759996716.4
760305779.5
819220171.3
895499864.6
806647710.1
815232128.4
820587756.3
692715366.7
611877545.3
849418816.1
709646348.7
567731916.1
505215798.1
804274377.2
503793710.1
27038533919
p= 423.27 mm
usando el mtodo de las isoyetas la precipitacion media de la cuenca es 423.27 mm
31
PRECIPITACION
mtodo 4
METODO DE THIESSEN MEJORADO
P= 421.21 mm
usando el mtodo de thiessen mejorado la precipitacion media de la cuenca es 423.27 mm
32
PRECIPITACION
A.21 MEDIANA
se define como el valor que divide las frecuencias en una distribucin de probailidades en
partes iguales o es el valor que ocurre con una probabilidad del 50%
A.21 MODA
Es el valor que ocurre con mayor frecuencia en una distribucin de probabilidad o una
tabla de frecuencia.
B ) LA DISPERSION
B.1 DESVIACION ESTANDAR
B.2 VARIANZA
B.2 RANGO
Diferencia del valor mayor y el valor menor.
B.3 COHEFICIENTE DE VARIACION
33
PRECIPITACION
CARACTERISTICA DE FORMA
Se define por el coeficiente de oblicuidad este coeficiente da la simetra de la distribucin.
Cs = 0 , Distribucin simtrica
Cs >0 , Distribucin oblicua hacia la derecha
Cs < 0 , Distribucin oblicua hacia la izquierda
34
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacin 1
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
ESTACION 1 (X)
mm
231.1
258
284.5
300.9
304
316.5
327.7
331.3
335.4
335.6
338
338.8
360.1
362.9
373.1
377.9
384.2
386.4
391.5
393.3
400.4
401.6
418.6
423
430.6
455
458
461
489.6
504.7
515
589.1
598
621
698
P(x) =m/(n+1)
Z=(X-Xm)/S
F(Z)
F(Z)-P(X)
0.028
0.056
0.083
0.111
0.139
0.167
0.194
0.222
0.25
0.278
0.306
0.333
0.361
0.389
0.417
0.444
0.472
0.5
0.528
0.556
0.583
0.611
0.639
0.667
0.694
0.722
0.75
0.778
0.806
0.833
0.861
0.889
0.917
0.944
0.972
-1.663
-1.407
-1.154
-0.998
-0.968
-0.849
-0.742
-0.708
-0.669
-0.667
-0.644
-0.636
-0.433
-0.407
-0.309
-0.264
-0.204
-0.183
-0.134
-0.117
-0.049
-0.038
0.124
0.166
0.239
0.471
0.5
0.528
0.801
0.945
1.043
1.749
1.834
2.053
2.787
0.04846
0.07927
0.12507
0.46017
0.16602
0.19766
0.22965
0.23885
0.25143
0.25143
0.26109
0.26109
0.3336
0.3409
0.37828
0.39743
0.42074
0.42858
0.44828
0.45224
0.48006
0.48405
0.5438
0.56749
0.59483
0.68082
0.77337
0.70194
0.78814
0.82639
0.85083
0.95994
0.96638
0.97982
0.9972
0.02046
0.02327
0.04207
0.34917
0.02702
0.03066
0.03565
0.01685
0.00143
0.02657
0.04491
0.07191
0.0274
0.0481
0.03872
0.04657
0.05126
0.07142
0.07972
0.10376
0.10294
0.12695
0.0952
0.09951
0.09917
0.04118
0.02337
0.07606
0.01786
0.00661
0.01017
0.07094
0.04938
0.03582
0.0252
max=
o=
0.34917
0.22988196
Como :max > o los datos de la estacin 1 no se ajustan a una distribucin normal
35
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacin 2
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
F(Z)-P(X)
0.01848
0.00952
0.0052
0.01924
0.25843
0.02243
0.00457
0.02985
0.04389
0.00375
0.02504
0.04184
0.03464
0.05903
0.06503
0.08458
0.06295
0.0438
0.03199
0.01617
0.04317
0.03331
0.0201
0.00424
0.02397
0.01365
0.04103
0.04321
0.06893
0.04398
0.02198
0.00535
0.00074
0.00221
0.02179
0.25843
0.22988196
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacin 3
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
Z=(X-Xm)/S
F(Z)
F(Z)-P(X)
-1.873
-1.748
-1.332
-1.17
-1.136
-1.03
-0.971
-0.689
-0.524
-0.428
-0.371
-0.314
-0.303
-0.293
-0.241
-0.226
-0.201
-0.187
-0.173
-0.048
0.019
0.08
0.257
0.361
0.436
0.474
0.502
0.726
0.874
0.908
1.151
1.324
1.521
1.883
2.741
0.03074
0.04006
0.09176
0.121
0.12714
0.15151
0.16602
0.41294
0.30153
0.3336
0.35569
0.37828
0.38209
0.38591
0.40517
0.40905
0.42074
0.42465
0.43251
0.48006
0.50798
0.53188
0.60257
0.64058
0.67003
0.68082
0.69146
0.7673
0.80785
0.81859
0.87493
0.90658
0.93574
0.96995
0.99693
0.00274
0.01594
0.00876
0.01
0.01186
0.01549
0.02798
0.19094
0.05153
0.0556
0.04969
0.04528
0.02109
0.00309
0.01183
0.03495
0.05126
0.07535
0.09549
0.07594
0.07502
0.07912
0.03643
0.02642
0.02397
0.04118
0.05854
0.0107
0.00185
0.01441
0.01393
0.01758
0.01874
0.02595
0.02493
max=
o=
0.19094
0.229881957
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacin 4
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
ESTACION 4 (X)
mm
260.1
293.2
300.3
304.3
305.6
338.7
338.8
354.6
354.7
355.9
356.1
367.5
369
383.3
387.5
413.9
425.1
435.7
445.7
470.6
475.8
494.3
507.5
513.8
513.8
529.7
544.9
549.3
560.7
588
589.5
609
636.1
738.7
746.4
P(x) =m/(n+1)
Z=(X-Xm)/S
F(Z)
F(Z)-P(X)
0.028
0.056
0.083
0.111
0.139
0.167
0.194
0.222
0.25
0.278
0.306
0.333
0.361
0.389
0.417
0.444
0.472
0.5
0.528
0.556
0.583
0.611
0.639
0.667
0.694
0.722
0.75
0.778
0.806
0.833
0.861
0.889
0.917
0.944
0.972
-1.544
-1.28
-1.223
-1.191
-1.18
-0.915
-0.915
-0.788
-0.787
-0.778
-0.776
-0.685
-0.673
-0.558
-0.525
-0.314
-0.224
-0.139
-0.059
0.14
0.182
0.33
0.435
0.486
0.486
0.613
0.735
0.77
0.861
1.08
1.092
1.248
1.465
2.286
2.347
0.06178
0.10027
0.11123
0.11702
0.119
0.17879
0.17879
0.21476
0.21476
0.2177
0.2177
0.2451
0.25143
0.29116
0.29806
0.37828
0.41294
0.44433
0.47608
0.55567
0.57142
0.6293
0.67003
0.68793
0.68793
0.72907
0.77035
0.77935
0.80511
0.85993
0.86214
0.89435
0.92922
0.98899
0.99061
0.03378
0.04427
0.02823
0.00602
0.02
0.01179
0.01521
0.00724
0.03524
0.0603
0.0883
0.0879
0.10957
0.09784
0.11894
0.06572
0.05906
0.05567
0.05192
0.00033
0.01158
0.0183
0.03103
0.02093
0.00607
0.00707
0.02035
0.00135
0.00089
0.02693
0.00114
0.00535
0.01222
0.04499
0.01861
max=
o=
0.11894
0.22988196
PRECIPITACION
Limitaciones: tiene solamente dos parmetros, y requiere que los logaritmos de la variables estn
centrados en la media
Y=Ln(X)
Ym
1 n
ln( xi )
n i 1
sy
(ln( xi ) Ym) 2
n 1 i 1
1
2
39
HACIENDO :
PRECIPITACION
Y=Ln(X)
Ao
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Ym =
Sy =
ESTACION 1
(Y =LNX)
mm
5.717
6.379
5.816
5.957
5.443
5.894
5.707
5.922
5.992
5.757
6.224
5.995
6.194
5.935
5.823
5.553
5.815
6.037
5.951
5.825
5.792
5.651
5.975
6.065
5.803
5.970
6.127
6.133
5.886
6.047
6.244
6.548
6.394
6.120
6.431
5.97
0.247
ESTACION 2 ESTACION 3
(Y =LNX)
(Y =LNX)
mm
mm
5.920
5.972
5.948
6.066
5.927
6.000
6.116
6.105
6.248
6.052
6.178
5.919
6.423
6.128
5.765
5.743
6.232
5.990
5.652
5.958
5.951
5.794
5.746
6.007
6.148
6.408
6.296
6.151
5.701
5.531
6.269
6.202
5.962
6.238
6.197
6.231
5.858
6.283
5.992
6.036
6.113
6.003
5.916
5.733
6.239
5.776
5.854
6.538
5.967
5.874
6.102
5.994
6.015
5.680
6.055
6.348
5.868
5.944
5.725
5.975
6.234
5.481
6.110
6.314
6.054
6.157
6.035
5.977
5.854
6.143
6.02
6.02
0.189
0.233
ESTACION 4
(Y =LNX)
mm
6.455
6.377
6.100
6.242
6.615
5.875
6.242
6.272
5.871
5.949
6.379
5.722
6.229
6.605
5.871
5.705
6.077
6.412
6.165
6.309
5.907
6.052
5.911
5.561
6.203
5.825
5.960
6.301
6.026
6.329
5.718
5.825
5.875
6.154
5.681
6.08
0.272
40
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacin 1
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
ESTACION 1 (y)
P(y) =m/(n+1)
Z=(Y-Ym)/Sy
F(Z)
F(Z)-P(Y)
mm
5.443
5.553
5.651
5.707
5.717
5.757
5.792
5.803
5.815
5.816
5.823
5.825
5.886
5.894
5.922
5.935
5.951
5.957
5.970
5.975
5.992
5.995
6.037
6.047
6.065
6.120
6.127
6.133
6.194
6.224
6.244
6.379
6.394
6.431
6.548
0.028
0.056
0.083
0.111
0.139
0.167
0.194
0.222
0.25
0.278
0.306
0.333
0.361
0.389
0.417
0.444
0.472
0.5
0.528
0.556
0.583
0.611
0.639
0.667
0.694
0.722
0.75
0.778
0.806
0.833
0.861
0.889
0.917
0.944
0.972
-2.134
-1.688
-1.293
-1.066
-1.024
-0.861
-0.72
-0.676
-0.626
-0.624
-0.595
-0.585
-0.339
-0.307
-0.195
-0.143
-0.076
-0.053
0
0.019
0.091
0.103
0.271
0.313
0.385
0.608
0.635
0.662
0.905
1.028
1.11
1.654
1.715
1.868
2.341
0.01659
0.04551
0.09853
0.14231
0.15386
0.19489
0.23576
0.24825
0.26435
0.26763
0.27425
0.2776
0.36693
0.37828
0.42074
0.44433
0.46812
0.48006
0.5
0.50798
0.53586
0.53983
0.60642
0.62172
0.65173
0.72907
0.73891
0.74537
0.81859
0.84849
0.8665
0.95053
0.95728
0.96926
0.99036
0.01141
0.01049
0.01553
0.03131
0.01486
0.02789
0.04176
0.02625
0.01435
0.01037
0.03175
0.0554
0.00593
0.01072
0.00374
0.00033
0.00388
0.01994
0.028
0.04802
0.04714
0.07117
0.03258
0.04528
0.04227
0.00707
0.01109
0.03263
0.01259
0.01549
0.0055
0.06153
0.04028
0.02526
0.01836
max=
o=
0.07117
0.22988196
Como : o >max los datos de la estacin 1 se ajustan a una distribucin log normal
41
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacion2
ESTACION 2 (Y) P(Y) =m/(n+1)
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
mm
5.652
5.701
5.725
5.746
5.765
5.854
5.854
5.858
5.868
5.916
5.920
5.927
5.948
5.951
5.962
5.967
5.992
6.015
6.035
6.054
6.055
6.102
6.110
6.113
6.116
6.148
6.178
6.197
6.232
6.234
6.239
6.248
6.269
6.296
6.423
0.028
0.056
0.083
0.111
0.139
0.167
0.194
0.222
0.25
0.278
0.306
0.333
0.361
0.389
0.417
0.444
0.472
0.5
0.528
0.556
0.583
0.611
0.639
0.667
0.694
0.722
0.75
0.778
0.806
0.833
0.861
0.889
0.917
0.944
0.972
Z=(Y-Ym)/Sy
F(Z)
F(Z)-P(Y)
-1.945
-1.687
-1.56
-1.449
-1.348
-0.877
-0.876
-0.859
-0.806
-0.549
-0.531
-0.492
-0.381
-0.367
-0.309
-0.281
-0.15
-0.027
0.078
0.181
0.185
0.433
0.477
0.49
0.507
0.677
0.836
0.939
1.124
1.134
1.159
1.207
1.318
1.458
2.134
0.02559
0.04551
0.05938
0.07353
0.08851
0.18943
0.18943
0.19215
0.20897
0.29116
0.29806
0.31207
0.35197
0.35569
0.37828
0.38974
0.48006
0.48803
0.53188
0.57142
0.57535
0.6664
0.68439
0.68793
0.69497
0.75175
0.79955
0.82639
0.86864
0.87076
0.87698
0.88686
0.90658
0.92785
0.98341
0.00241
0.01049
0.02362
0.03747
0.05049
0.02243
0.00457
0.02985
0.04103
0.01316
0.00794
0.02093
0.00903
0.03331
0.03872
0.05426
0.00806
0.01197
0.00388
0.01542
0.00765
0.0554
0.04539
0.02093
0.00097
0.02975
0.04955
0.04839
0.06264
0.03776
0.01598
0.00214
0.01042
0.01615
0.01141
max=
0.06264
o=
0.22988196
Como : o >max los datos de la estacin 2 se ajustan a una distribucin log normal
42
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacin 3
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
Z=(Y-Ym)/Sy
F(Z)
F(Z)-P(Y)
-2.311
-2.099
-1.458
-1.233
-1.187
-1.047
-0.97
-0.625
-0.435
-0.328
-0.266
-0.205
-0.193
-0.183
-0.128
-0.112
-0.086
-0.071
-0.056
0.071
0.137
0.197
0.365
0.461
0.529
0.563
0.589
0.783
0.907
0.935
1.129
1.262
1.409
1.667
2.222
0.02118
0.01044
0.07215
0.10935
0.11702
0.14686
0.16602
0.26435
0.32997
0.3707
0.39358
0.41683
0.42465
0.42858
0.44828
0.4562
0.46414
0.4721
0.47608
0.5279
0.55567
0.57926
0.64431
0.67724
0.70194
0.71226
0.72575
0.7823
0.81859
0.82639
0.87076
0.89617
0.92073
0.95254
0.98679
0.00682
0.04556
0.01085
0.00165
0.02198
0.02014
0.02798
0.04235
0.07997
0.0927
0.08758
0.08383
0.06365
0.03958
0.03128
0.0122
0.00786
0.0279
0.05192
0.0281
0.02733
0.03174
0.00531
0.01024
0.00794
0.00974
0.02425
0.0043
0.01259
0.00661
0.00976
0.00717
0.00373
0.00854
0.01479
max=
o=
0.0927
0.22988196
Como : o >max los datos de la estacin 3 se ajustan a una distribucin log normal
43
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacin 4
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
ESTACION 4 (Y)
P(Y) =m/(n+1)
Z=(Y-Ym)/Sy
F(Z)
F(Z)-P(Y)
mm
5.561
5.681
5.705
5.718
5.722
5.825
5.825
5.871
5.871
5.875
5.875
5.907
5.911
5.949
5.960
6.026
6.052
6.077
6.100
6.154
6.165
6.203
6.229
6.242
6.242
6.272
6.301
6.309
6.329
6.377
6.379
6.412
6.455
6.605
6.615
0.028
0.056
0.083
0.111
0.139
0.167
0.194
0.222
0.25
0.278
0.306
0.333
0.361
0.389
0.417
0.444
0.472
0.5
0.528
0.556
0.583
0.611
0.639
0.667
0.694
0.722
0.75
0.778
0.806
0.833
0.861
0.889
0.917
0.944
0.972
-1.908
-1.467
-1.379
-1.331
-1.315
-0.937
-0.936
-0.768
-0.767
-0.755
-0.753
-0.637
-0.622
-0.482
-0.442
-0.2
-0.102
-0.011
0.072
0.272
0.312
0.453
0.55
0.595
0.595
0.707
0.811
0.841
0.916
1.091
1.1
1.22
1.38
1.93
1.968
0.02807
0.07078
0.08379
0.09176
0.09342
0.17361
0.17361
0.22065
0.22065
0.22363
0.22663
0.26109
0.26763
0.31561
0.32997
0.42074
0.46017
0.49601
0.5279
0.60642
0.62172
0.67364
0.70884
0.72575
0.72575
0.76115
0.79103
0.79955
0.82121
0.86214
0.86433
0.88877
0.91621
0.9732
0.97558
7E-05
0.01478
0.00079
0.01924
0.04558
0.00661
0.02039
0.00135
0.02935
0.05437
0.07937
0.07191
0.09337
0.07339
0.08703
0.02326
0.01183
0.00399
1E-04
0.05042
0.03872
0.06264
0.06984
0.05875
0.03175
0.03915
0.04103
0.02155
0.01521
0.02914
0.00333
0.00023
0.00079
0.0292
0.00358
max=
0.09337
o=
0.22988196
Como : o >max los datos de la estacin 4 se ajustan a una distribucin log normal
44
PRECIPITACION
=0.78*S
Si :
45
PRECIPITACION
Ao
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Xm =
Sx =
=
=
ESTACION 1
mm
304
589.1
335.6
386.4
231.1
362.9
300.9
373.1
400.4
316.5
504.7
401.6
489.6
377.9
338
258
335.4
418.6
384.2
338.8
327.7
284.5
393.3
430.6
331.3
391.5
458
461
360.1
423
515
698
598
455
621
405.57
104.92
358.36
81.84
ESTACION 2
mm
372.3
383
375
453
517
482
616
319
509
285
384
313
467.8
542.2
299.2
528
388.2
491.5
349.9
400.1
451.5
371
512.4
348.7
390.3
446.7
409.5
426.2
353.4
306.5
510
450.4
425.9
417.7
348.8
418.41
79.07
382.83
61.67
ESTACION 3
mm
392.4
430.9
403.4
448.1
424.9
371.9
458.3
312.1
399.5
386.8
328.3
406.2
606.9
469.3
252.4
493.9
511.7
508.4
535.4
418.4
404.8
308.8
322.5
690.7
355.8
401
293
571.5
381.3
393.5
240.2
552.3
472.1
394.4
465.6
423.05
97.63
379.12
76.15
ESTACION 4
mm
636.1
588
445.7
513.8
746.4
355.9
513.8
529.7
354.6
383.3
589.5
305.6
507.5
738.7
354.7
300.3
435.7
609
475.8
549.3
367.5
425.1
369
260.1
494.3
338.8
387.5
544.9
413.9
560.7
304.3
338.7
356.1
470.6
293.2
453.09
124.96
396.86
97.47
46
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacin 1
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
ESTACION 1 (X)
mm
231.1
258
284.5
300.9
304
316.5
327.7
331.3
335.4
335.6
338
338.8
360.1
362.9
373.1
377.9
384.2
386.4
391.5
393.3
400.4
401.6
418.6
423
430.6
455
458
461
489.6
504.7
515
589.1
598
621
698
Si se ajusta
P(x) =m/(n+1)
Z=(X-)/
G(Z)
G(Z)-P(X)
0.028
0.056
0.083
0.111
0.139
0.167
0.194
0.222
0.25
0.278
0.306
0.333
0.361
0.389
0.417
0.444
0.472
0.5
0.528
0.556
0.583
0.611
0.639
0.667
0.694
0.722
0.75
0.778
0.806
0.833
0.861
0.889
0.917
0.944
0.972
-1.555
-1.226
-0.902
-0.702
-0.664
-0.511
-0.375
-0.331
-0.281
-0.278
-0.249
-0.239
0.021
0.056
0.18
0.239
0.316
0.343
0.405
0.427
0.514
0.528
0.736
0.79
0.883
1.181
1.218
1.254
1.604
1.788
1.914
2.82
2.928
3.209
2.787
0.00878169
0.03312152
0.08504904
0.13294972
0.1433384
0.18882071
0.23340237
0.24848823
0.26594823
0.26700545
0.27727596
0.28083765
0.37560434
0.38847008
0.43375726
0.45501956
0.48236246
0.4918221
0.51325791
0.52076127
0.54985625
0.55444739
0.61938626
0.63518131
0.6613048
0.73567148
0.74392042
0.75174278
0.81783838
0.84595051
0.86287172
0.94213572
0.94790221
0.96040809
0.9402535
0.019218311
0.022878477
0.002049041
0.021949723
0.004338401
0.021820714
0.039402368
0.026488232
0.015948232
0.010994547
0.028724043
0.052162351
0.014604345
0.000529924
0.016757259
0.011019555
0.010362463
0.008177899
0.01474209
0.035238727
0.033143748
0.056552611
0.019613739
0.031818691
0.032695201
0.013671484
0.006079584
0.026257224
0.011838377
0.012950506
0.001871716
0.053135716
0.030902207
0.016408091
0.031746495
max=
o=
0.056552611
0.229881957
47
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacin 2
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
ESTACION 2 (X)
mm
285
299.2
306.5
313
319
348.7
348.8
349.9
353.4
371
372.3
375
383
384
388.2
390.3
400.1
409.5
417.7
425.9
426.2
446.7
450.4
451.5
453
467.8
482
491.5
509
510
512.4
517
528
542.2
616
P(x) =m/(n+1)
Z=(X-)/
G(Z)
G(Z)-P(X)
0.028
0.056
0.083
0.111
0.139
0.167
0.194
0.222
0.25
0.278
0.306
0.333
0.361
0.389
0.417
0.444
0.472
0.5
0.528
0.556
0.583
0.611
0.639
0.667
0.694
0.722
0.75
0.778
0.806
0.833
0.861
0.889
0.917
0.944
0.972
-1.586
-1.356
-1.238
-1.132
-1.035
-0.553
-0.552
-0.534
-0.477
-0.192
-0.171
-0.127
0.003
0.019
0.087
0.121
0.28
0.432
0.565
0.698
0.703
1.036
1.096
1.113
1.138
1.378
1.608
1.762
2.046
2.062
2.101
2.175
2.354
2.584
3.781
0.00756538
0.02063762
0.03178664
0.04496576
0.05989836
0.17579081
0.17609653
0.18163763
0.19964122
0.29769955
0.30529073
0.32128811
0.36898308
0.37486873
0.39984548
0.41228766
0.46964239
0.52245868
0.56645358
0.60800056
0.60951131
0.70126367
0.71590684
0.71995126
0.72581559
0.77718084
0.81849516
0.84223086
0.87875348
0.88055815
0.88485275
0.89260765
0.90938344
0.92730615
0.97745807
0.02043462
0.03536238
0.05121336
0.06603424
0.07910164
0.00879081
0.01790347
0.04036237
0.05035878
0.01969955
0.00070927
0.01171189
0.00798308
0.01413127
0.01715452
0.03171234
0.00235761
0.02245868
0.03845358
0.05200056
0.02651131
0.09026367
0.07690684
0.05295126
0.03181559
0.05518084
0.06849516
0.06423086
0.07275348
0.04755815
0.02385275
0.00360765
0.00761656
0.01669385
0.00545807
max=
o=
0.09026367
0.22988196
48
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacion3
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
ESTACION 3 (X)
mm
240.2
252.4
293
308.8
312.1
322.5
328.3
355.8
371.9
381.3
386.8
392.4
393.5
394.4
399.5
401
403.4
404.8
406.2
418.4
424.9
430.9
448.1
458.3
465.6
469.3
472.1
493.9
508.4
511.7
535.4
552.3
571.5
606.9
690.7
P(x) =m/(n+1)
Z=(X-)/
G(Z)
G(Z)-P(X)
0.028
0.056
0.083
0.111
0.139
0.167
0.194
0.222
0.25
0.278
0.306
0.333
0.361
0.389
0.417
0.444
0.472
0.5
0.528
0.556
0.583
0.611
0.639
0.667
0.694
0.722
0.75
0.778
0.806
0.833
0.861
0.889
0.917
0.944
0.972
-1.824
-1.664
-1.131
-0.923
-0.88
-0.743
-0.667
-0.306
-0.095
0.029
0.101
0.174
0.189
0.201
0.268
0.287
0.319
0.337
0.356
0.516
0.601
0.68
0.906
1.04
1.136
1.184
1.221
1.507
1.698
1.741
2.052
2.274
2.526
2.991
4.092
0.00203635
0.00509044
0.04510538
0.0807151
0.08973452
0.12218332
0.14250426
0.25717916
0.33298466
0.37854646
0.40497375
0.43158237
0.43701555
0.44135205
0.46537685
0.47212489
0.48341705
0.48972619
0.49635066
0.55051372
0.57795279
0.6025305
0.6675523
0.70225782
0.72535009
0.73634827
0.74457992
0.80125686
0.83272714
0.83916748
0.87943318
0.90221741
0.92313638
0.95100384
0.98343298
0.02596365
0.05090956
0.03789462
0.0302849
0.04926548
0.04481668
0.05149574
0.03517916
0.08298466
0.10054646
0.09897375
0.09858237
0.07601555
0.05235205
0.04837685
0.02812489
0.01141705
0.01027381
0.03164934
0.00548628
0.00504721
0.0084695
0.0285523
0.03525782
0.03135009
0.01434827
0.00542008
0.02325686
0.02672714
0.00616748
0.01843318
0.01321741
0.00613638
0.00700384
0.01143298
max=
o=
0.10054646
0.22988196
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacin 4
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
ESTACION 4 (X)
mm
260.1
293.2
300.3
304.3
305.6
338.7
338.8
354.6
354.7
355.9
356.1
367.5
369
383.3
387.5
413.9
425.1
435.7
445.7
470.6
475.8
494.3
507.5
513.8
513.8
529.7
544.9
549.3
560.7
588
589.5
609
636.1
738.7
746.4
P(x) =m/(n+1)
Z=(X-)/
G(Z)
G(Z)-P(X)
0.028
0.056
0.083
0.111
0.139
0.167
0.194
0.222
0.25
0.278
0.306
0.333
0.361
0.389
0.417
0.444
0.472
0.5
0.528
0.556
0.583
0.611
0.639
0.667
0.694
0.722
0.75
0.778
0.806
0.833
0.861
0.889
0.917
0.944
0.972
-1.403
-1.063
-0.991
-0.95
-0.936
-0.597
-0.596
-0.434
-0.433
-0.42
-0.418
-0.301
-0.286
-0.139
-0.096
0.175
0.29
0.399
0.501
0.757
0.81
1
1.135
1.2
1.2
1.363
1.519
1.564
1.681
1.961
1.976
2.177
2.455
3.507
3.586
0.01712212
0.05529664
0.06761489
0.07534259
0.07810026
0.16256772
0.16286317
0.21364941
0.21397925
0.21828329
0.21894808
0.25892694
0.26418849
0.31691423
0.33261851
0.431945
0.4731875
0.51120188
0.54556985
0.62558283
0.64091524
0.69220063
0.7251171
0.73993405
0.73993405
0.77422562
0.80337738
0.81115412
0.83011777
0.86873458
0.8705565
0.89281029
0.91771977
0.9704584
0.97267143
0.01087788
0.00070336
0.01538511
0.03565741
0.06089974
0.00443228
0.03113683
0.00835059
0.03602075
0.05971671
0.08705192
0.07407306
0.09681151
0.07208577
0.08438149
0.012055
0.0011875
0.01120188
0.01756985
0.06958283
0.05791524
0.08120063
0.0861171
0.07293405
0.04593405
0.05222562
0.05337738
0.03315412
0.02411777
0.03573458
0.0095565
0.00381029
0.00071977
0.0264584
0.00067143
max=
o=
0.09681151
0.22988196
PRECIPITACION
Ym
=0.78*Sy
1 n
ln( xi )
n i 1
Si :
51
PRECIPITACION
Ao
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Ym =
Sy =
=
=
ESTACION 4 (Y =LNX)
mm
6.45535578
6.37672695
6.09964608
6.24183408
6.61526165
5.87464979
6.24183408
6.27231081
5.87099039
5.94881797
6.37927472
5.72227706
6.22949671
6.60489188
5.87127236
5.70478197
6.07695393
6.41181827
6.1649976
6.30864474
5.90672332
6.05232444
5.91079664
5.56106617
6.20314262
5.82540996
5.95971585
6.30060229
6.0256244
6.329186
5.71801406
5.82511476
5.87521159
6.15400848
5.68085497
6.08
0.272
5.9576
0.21216
52
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacin 1
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
ESTACION 1 (y)
mm
5.44285052
5.55295958
5.65073325
5.70677798
5.717
5.75732324
5.79209856
5.80302431
5.81532385
5.81591997
5.8230459
5.82540996
5.88638177
5.89412731
5.92184648
5.93462961
5.95116325
5.9568731
5.96998552
5.97457268
5.99246405
5.99545657
6.03691581
6.04737218
6.06517958
6.12029742
6.12686918
6.13339804
6.19358873
6.22396419
6.2441669
6.37859595
6.39359075
6.43133108
6.5482191
P(y) =m/(n+1)
Z=(y-)/
G(Z)
G(Z)-P(y)
0.028
0.056
0.083
0.111
0.139
0.167
0.194
0.222
0.25
0.278
0.306
0.333
0.361
0.389
0.417
0.444
0.472
0.5
0.528
0.556
0.583
0.611
0.639
0.667
0.694
0.722
0.75
0.778
0.806
0.833
0.861
0.889
0.917
0.944
0.972
-1.935
-1.411
-0.945
-0.678
-0.629
-0.437
-0.271
-0.219
-0.16
-0.157
-0.123
-0.112
0.178
0.215
0.347
0.408
0.487
0.514
0.577
0.599
0.684
0.698
0.896
0.946
1.031
1.293
1.325
1.356
1.643
1.787
1.884
2.524
2.596
2.776
3.333
0.00098384
0.01657179
0.07632052
0.13946607
0.15324246
0.21266097
0.26947624
0.28798949
0.30927919
0.3103683
0.32274769
0.32676538
0.43303253
0.4463993
0.49321735
0.51428439
0.54092912
0.54985625
0.57030693
0.57731876
0.6037503
0.60800056
0.66484643
0.6782149
0.70001737
0.75999288
0.76659016
0.77283518
0.82415309
0.84580892
0.85900463
0.92298859
0.92814133
0.93961303
0.96494335
0.02701616
0.03942821
0.00667948
0.02846607
0.01424246
0.04566097
0.07547624
0.06598949
0.05927919
0.0323683
0.01674769
0.00623462
0.07203253
0.0573993
0.07621735
0.07028439
0.06892912
0.04985625
0.04230693
0.02131876
0.0207503
0.00299944
0.02584643
0.0112149
0.00601737
0.03799288
0.01659016
0.00516482
0.01815309
0.01280892
0.00199537
0.03398859
0.01114133
0.00438697
0.00705665
max=
o=
0.07621735
0.22988196
Como : o >max los datos de la estacin 1 se ajustan a una distribucin log - gumbel
53
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacin 2
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
G(Z)-P(y)
0.02550993
0.04352675
0.05950378
0.07326755
0.08402292
0.02815731
0.00179546
0.01977918
0.02671415
0.05608333
0.03651624
0.02641896
0.04836395
0.02657365
0.02399103
0.00958579
0.03782893
0.05966219
0.07208367
0.08119536
0.05562925
0.10681582
0.09143591
0.06685983
0.04481779
0.0598407
0.0661872
0.05805059
0.06088903
0.03536737
0.01111656
0.01024652
0.02368469
0.03470298
0.01293277
0.10681582
0.22988196
Como : o >max los datos de la estacin 2 se ajustan a una distribucin log - gumbel
54
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacin 3
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
ESTACION 3 (y)
mm
5.48147191
5.53101513
5.68017261
5.73269382
5.74332365
5.77610314
5.79392782
5.87436878
5.918625
5.94358647
5.95790776
5.97228173
5.97508107
5.97736562
5.99021377
5.99396143
5.99992863
6.00339312
6.00684565
6.03643791
6.05185385
6.06587604
6.10501642
6.12752399
6.1433269
6.15124222
6.15719083
6.20233307
6.23126854
6.23773852
6.28301413
6.31409138
6.34826448
6.40836403
6.53770558
P(y)
=m/(n+1)
0.028
0.056
0.083
0.111
0.139
0.167
0.194
0.222
0.25
0.278
0.306
0.333
0.361
0.389
0.417
0.444
0.472
0.5
0.528
0.556
0.583
0.611
0.639
0.667
0.694
0.722
0.75
0.778
0.806
0.833
0.861
0.889
0.917
0.944
0.972
Z=(y-)/
G(Z)
G(Z)-P(y)
-2.386
-2.114
-1.293
-1.004
-0.945
-0.765
-0.667
-0.224
0.019
0.156
0.235
0.314
0.33
0.342
0.413
0.434
0.466
0.486
0.505
0.667
0.752
0.829
1.045
1.169
1.256
1.299
1.332
1.58
1.739
1.775
2.024
2.195
2.383
2.714
3.426
1.9022E-05
0.00025321
0.02615536
0.065273
0.07632052
0.11660136
0.14250426
0.28619811
0.37486873
0.42504544
0.45358579
0.48165893
0.48727641
0.49147303
0.5159929
0.52313681
0.53392106
0.54059667
0.5468911
0.59854953
0.62411367
0.64630383
0.70349689
0.73295024
0.75217151
0.76124163
0.76801283
0.81385334
0.83887295
0.84410072
0.87623067
0.89461792
0.91185587
0.93587703
0.96800624
0.02798098
0.05574679
0.05684464
0.045727
0.06267948
0.05039864
0.05149574
0.06419811
0.12486873
0.14704544
0.14758579
0.14865893
0.12627641
0.10247303
0.0989929
0.07913681
0.06192106
0.04059667
0.0188911
0.04254953
0.04111367
0.03530383
0.06449689
0.06595024
0.05817151
0.03924163
0.01801283
0.03585334
0.03287295
0.01110072
0.01523067
0.00561792
0.00514413
0.00812297
0.00399376
max=
o=
0.14865893
0.22988196
Como : o >max los datos de la estacin 3 se ajustan a una distribucin log - gumbel
55
PRECIPITACION
Para la estacin 4
Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
ESTACION 4 (y)
mm
5.56106617
5.68085497
5.70478197
5.71801406
5.72227706
5.82511476
5.82540996
5.87099039
5.87127236
5.87464979
5.87521159
5.90672332
5.91079664
5.94881797
5.95971585
6.0256244
6.05232444
6.07695393
6.09964608
6.15400848
6.1649976
6.20314262
6.22949671
6.24183408
6.24183408
6.27231081
6.30060229
6.30864474
6.329186
6.37672695
6.37927472
6.41181827
6.45535578
6.60489188
6.61526165
P(y) =m/(n+1)
Z=(y-)/
G(Z)
G(Z)-P(y)
0.028
0.056
0.083
0.111
0.139
0.167
0.194
0.222
0.25
0.278
0.306
0.333
0.361
0.389
0.417
0.444
0.472
0.5
0.528
0.556
0.583
0.611
0.639
0.667
0.694
0.722
0.75
0.778
0.806
0.833
0.861
0.889
0.917
0.944
0.972
-1.869
-1.304
-1.192
-1.129
-1.109
-0.624
-0.623
-0.408
-0.407
-0.391
-0.388
-0.24
-0.221
-0.041
0.01
0.321
0.446
0.563
0.67
0.926
0.978
1.157
1.282
1.34
1.34
1.483
1.617
1.655
1.751
1.976
1.988
2.141
2.346
3.051
3.1
0.00153103
0.0251222
0.03711768
0.04538551
0.04825164
0.15468281
0.15497163
0.22228228
0.22261664
0.22798886
0.2290008
0.28048104
0.28727267
0.35280065
0.37155817
0.48411962
0.52719553
0.5658094
0.59947046
0.67291579
0.68655944
0.7302064
0.75768937
0.76962979
0.76962979
0.79695601
0.81996528
0.82605654
0.84063287
0.8705565
0.87199718
0.88910739
0.90868989
0.95379016
0.95595045
0.02646897
0.0308778
0.04588232
0.06561449
0.09074836
0.01231719
0.03902837
0.00028228
0.02738336
0.05001114
0.0769992
0.05251896
0.07372733
0.03619935
0.04544183
0.04011962
0.05519553
0.0658094
0.07147046
0.11691579
0.10355944
0.1192064
0.11868937
0.10262979
0.07562979
0.07495601
0.06996528
0.04805654
0.03463287
0.0375565
0.01099718
0.00010739
0.00831011
0.00979016
0.01604955
max=
0.1192064
o=
0.22988196
Como : o >max los datos de la estacin 4 se ajustan a una distribucin log - gumbel
56
PRECIPITACION
CONCLUSION:
max
NORMAL
ESTACION 1 0.34917
ESTACION 2 0.25843
ESTACION 3 0.19094
ESTACION 4 0.11894
o=
TIPO DE DISTRIBUCION
LOG-NORMAL
GUMBELL
0.07117
0.056552611
0.06264
0.09026367
0.0927
0.10054646
0.09337
0.09681151
LOG-GUMBELL
0.07621735
0.10681582
0.14865893
0.1192064
max(x.estac)
0.07621735
0.10681582
0.19094
0.1192064
0.22988196
57