Friends Near Home: Pakistan's Strategic Security Options

© 2006 Dr. Muhammad Anwar. All rights reserved.

No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means without the written permission of the author.

First published by AuthorHouse 11/17/2006

ISBN: 1-4259-5811-7 (sc)

ISBN: 978-1-4670-1541-7 (ebk)

Printed in the United States of America

Bloomington, Indiana

TO MY MOTHERLAND

Contents

PREFACE

1 INTRODUCTION

2 NATIONAL SECURITY PROBLEMS

3 THE NEW WORLD ORDER

4 REGIONAL MARITIME SCENARIO

5 STRATEGIC REALITIES

6 POWER POTENTIAL OF FRIENDS

7 STRATEGIC RELIEF REQUIREMENTS

8 RELATIONS WITH FRIENDS

9 MARITIME STRATEGY

10 PAKISTAN NAVY

11 STRATEGIC SECURITY OPTIONS

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

TYPES OF NAVAL PLATFORMS

TYPES OF NAVIES

INDIAN NAVY’S FORCE GOAL BY YEAR 2010

BIBLIOGRAPHY

About the Author

PREFACE

Friends Near Home presents the realistic perspective, analysis and aspirations by someone from the soil. Focussing on Pakistan’s strategic security options, I have examined the politico-strategic and maritime environment of the region that includes South Asia, South-West Asia and Central Asia with special reference to the North-West Indian Ocean Region milieu. Pakistan’s security remains threatened even after a long period of existence because of the single factor i.e. the Kashmir issue which was left unresolved at the time of partition of the subcontinent. Despite large spending on defence and being part of the US-led alliances, Pakistan was dismembered in December 1971. With the end of the Cold War, the situation has gone from bad to worse. The only way out now is to look for Friends near Home who could act as Relief Zones and provide the necessary assistance to safeguard Pakistan’s strategic security interests. I have made an effort to analyse the viability and efficacy of the regional states i.e. the potential Friends near Home with a view to enhance Pakistan’s security parameters.

Whereas the thesis examines the relief options for Pakistan from within the region, this model and the theme are equally applicable to all those countries who want to extend their security parameters. This could be achieved abiding by the principles of peaceful coexistence with other countries around them and by exploiting the converging interests rather than choosing to fight for seeking control or pursuing the hegemonic designs. Some bold thoughts and recommendations presented in this book could serve as the stabilizing factors for the region. Expansion of the Gulf Cooperation Council leading to the establishment of the Enlarged Economic Cooperation Organisation is one such realistic but challenging proposition. Pakistan’s envisaged Maritime Orientation should conveniently help attainment of this difficult but achievable goal. All this reflects my vision of Pakistan into 21st Century and beyond. Those in power should carry this vision to the testing grounds for sake of a promising future for Pakistan and laying a strong foundation for cooperation and development in this resource-rich region, and ultimately contributing towards the world peace and stability.

I would like to express my sincere thanks to Rear Admiral Wasi Haider for his valuable suggestions with whom I discussed this subject at the very early stage of my research work. During my War Course at the National Defence College Islamabad in 1996-97, I came across many distinguished scholars and the learned faculty members with whom I had the privilege of discussing various issues forming part of this book. I wish to extend my deepest gratitude to all of them.

I am solely responsible for all the facts and opinions expressed in this book; they do not in any way exhibit stance of any service or organization or any person. No information, material and citations contained in this book are from classified or confidential sources. All comes from already published eminent sources.

Dr. Muhammad Anwar

1

INTRODUCTION

Basic Theme

Immediately after the partition, the adversarial relationship developed between India and Pakistan. India never in fact accepted the creation of Pakistan, as such Pakistan always considered its national security threatened by the big neighbour and, therefore, had to spend much more on defence than its resources permitted. Pakistan sought friends in one direction or the other with a view to offsetting India’s superiority. In the initial stages Pakistan worked for a grouping of Muslim countries but her need for external assistance could only be met by the United States who was then the only Relief Zone for Pakistan. Right from the start in 1949-50, the United States provided military equipment, economic assistance and some diplomatic support but unfortunately those fell short of Pakistan’s expectations indeed requirements. This was evident in 1971 when Pakistan was dismembered and except for some moral support nothing else was forthcoming from the United States. Pakistan, however, continued to look towards the United States as the Relief Zone which found some expression when the Soviet–Afghan conflict was at its peak and Pakistan supported the United States, in essence Pakistan provided Relief Zone to the United States.

With the disappearance of the bipolar world and emergence of the United States as the sole superpower, the importance of Pakistan to the United States ceased. India on the other hand marched ahead of Pakistan in almost every aspect, economically, industrially, scientifically and diplomatically, and hence became infinitely more important to all the countries compared to Pakistan. India also achieved immense qualitative as well as quantitative superiority over Pakistan, besides being too big a market for United States interests to be ignored.

A smaller country historically has to fall upon a mutual defence pact or alliance system to safeguard its national security when pitted against a stronger adversary. This has always been the case; Japan had mutual defence pact with the United States to offset the former Soviet Union, or the European countries taking the NATO as the Relief Zone against the former Soviet Union. The important thing was that these countries had a common enemy i.e. the Soviet Union. In the Asian context, there is no evidence of a country or a number of countries having India as a common enemy and hence a mutual defence pact with a country superior to India or an alliance system did not seem plausible. This scenario demands re-evaluation of Pakistan’s course of action with a view to identify Friends and Relief Zones from within the region to help safeguard her strategic security interests.

Basic Parameters

This book is based on the following five parameters:

• Friends near Home. Friends near Home are those countries who can possibly act as Relief Zones and provide Pakistan the defence and economic assistance to offset the potential threat. These countries include China, Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asian States, Saudi Arabia, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Turkey and Yemen.

• The Adversary. In pursuit of her Maha Bharat doctrine, India will continue to be Pakistan’s only adversary in the foreseeable future, until both the South Asian nuclear nations were able to resolve the core dispute over Jammu and Kashmir, usually referred as ‘Kashmir issue’.

• The Single Superpower. The United States is going to retain the single superpower status in the foreseeable future. As the main guardian of the western interests worldwide, the United States enjoys support from her Western allies.

• The Region. Pakistan’s primary interest lies in South Asia, South-West Asia and Central Asia including China, and the same will be the focus of the politico-strategic scenario and further discussion in this book. This region has dominant significance in the emerging economic oriented power pyramid in the world, mainly due to the oil supplies emanating from the Gulf and those of Central Asia. All big economic as well as military powers are very sensitive to any interference in the flow of this oil from the region. At the same time, other economic and commercial interests compel these countries to have keen share in the affairs of the regional states. The map below depicts the contours of the region.

THE REGION

• Maritime Orientation. In keeping with the regional maritime scene, future conflict scenarios, overriding emphasis on economic security, Pakistan’s geostrategic settings and her stakes at sea demand a strategic shift from continental mindset to maritime orientation to safeguard country’s strategic security interests to include economic as well as military viability and efficacy.

Prospects and Promises

Looking at the theme and the basic parameters of the thesis, many questions arise which have to be seen in totality to evolve the strategic direction and to sought support from Friends near Home. The question of having common enemy has also been relegated after the demise of the Soviet Union. Existence rather enlargement of the NATO is a case in point, especially if the primary purpose of Friends near Home is biased towards the economic more than the military foundation. Historically as well as geographically, the countries i.e. China, Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asian States, Saudi Arabia, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Turkey and Yemen could possibly be seen as Pakistan’s Friends near Home who could act as the Relief Zones during the hour of need. The scenarios in the succeeding paragraphs should be seen in that context and form the basis of further deliberations and evaluation.

Friendship between China and Pakistan has stood the test of time. It has become even more important to maintain closer relations with China under the changed global and regional environment especially in the light of the emerging Indo-US cooperation and their proclaimed strategic partnership. On the other hand, Indo-China rapprochement may be viewed as a short term development. India continues to view China as the potential threat to her aspirations of regional leadership. China feels that Pakistan is the only country that has always stood against Indian hegemonic designs, thus fulfilling a key strategic objective of China’s South-Asian policy. Both China and Pakistan are linked through Karakoram Highway (KKH) which further extends to the Central Asian States. China beholds moral stature as well as the vast economic and military potential and should continue to be a dependable friend of Pakistan.

Relations between Iran and Pakistan have shown a remarkable consistency despite the radical changes in the governments of both the countries. Besides common religion and cultural heritage, Pakistan-Iran relations were firmly based on the strategic compulsions and security needs of both the nations. Iran too realizes the importance and would like to value Pakistan’s friendship and ensure the sovereignty of Pakistan. Whether enough is being done to achieve the desired level of cooperation needs to be seen. There exists a window of opportunity in the wake of Iran’s current impasse on the nuclear issue with the US where Pakistan could play a positive role and offer moral as well as diplomatic support to Iran at this crucial point in time.

A stable Afghanistan is Pakistan’s strategic compulsion which also links her to Central Asia as well as Iran. Pakistan played host for a long time to the Afghan refugees during the Soviet occupation of their motherland. Pakistan was also a key player responsible for the withdrawal of the Soviet troops from Afghanistan that ultimately led to the demise of the Soviet Union. Once again Pakistan and Afghanistan are working together to help fight the war against terrorism hand in hand with the United States. What happens after the United States and allies’ troops’ withdrawal has to be visualized for the sake of good neighbourly relations with Afghanistan, the gateway to Central Asia.

The Central Asian States have emerged as a group of countries with which Pakistan can develop significance cooperation in many areas, bilaterally and collectively as a founding member of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO). They qualify as neighbours by virtue of their location and with their historical and cultural links to South Asia, and their likely quest for an outlet to sea via Pakistan makes them into a potential hinterland. However, all depends on return of peace in Afghanistan, which seems to be a tall order, but is Islamabad keeping an eye on that aspect and whether the strategic thought process is taking place or not, is a big question mark.

In the same context, Islamabad has to see whether they are giving due importance to the longstanding friendly relations with the Muslim countries especially Saudi Arabia, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Turkey and Yemen, that could conveniently form the Maritime Ring of Friends near Home. Pakistan has got to see more than the special relations with these countries in order to foster economic collaboration especially with the Gulf countries individually as well as collectively at the level of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Conclusion

The existing cordial relations with the potential Relief Zones indeed Friends near Home make Islamabad stand on a stronger footing and should help Pakistan to further consolidate the level of cooperation in line with her strategic national security interests. However, there are two basic scenarios which need to be considered while making any firm move in that direction. Firstly, the presence of the United States and the allies troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, with no end in sight for the quagmire they are in. Unless the United States forced by the circumstances makes a desperate move, they have come to stay in the region this time for a long time. Secondly for the sake of economic security and consequently the peace for the entire region, the Indo-Pakistan relations have got to be addressed beyond the usual rhetoric. All avenues ought to be explored to normalize relations with India for the sake of peace which is the key to development, economic progress and prosperity. How long anyone would keep blaming