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The last pandemic was a ‘quiet killer.’ Ten years after swine flu, no one can predict the next one

The last pandemic was a "quiet killer." Ten years after swine flu, no one can predict the next one.
An H1N1 flu vaccination clinic was held in San Francisco in December 2009.

The cryptic phone call came on a Monday. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was holding an important teleconference for a few reporters. I should dial in.

When the time came, just a handful of reporters were on the line. Also there: the CDC’s top flu experts. They sounded worried.

Two unrelated children from southern California had tested positive for flu infections caused by viruses that normally sicken pigs. This could have been a fluke, but from the unusual nature of the call and from the tension in the voices of the experts, it was clear that the CDC officials thought it might be something else: an influenza pandemic.

That teleconference took place on April 20, 2009. Over the next seven weeks it became apparent that any fears they had had been well-founded.

On June 11, 2009 — 10 years ago today — the World Health Organization declared that the swine flu

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